Some trees are already bare.
Get your fall picturres in now!
The weather has been fairly boring for the last three months. We haven't had much rain but now it looks like it's going to rain for Halloween which is Thursday. And today the wind is blowing so if you want to get pictures of fall colors on the trees, do it now and certainly before Thursday. I expect the trees to become bare after the weekend. Share photos if you have them.
Are you ready for winter?
So far all the climate data from the long range models are agreeing on temperatures averaging above normal for the upcoming Winter 2024-25 season. That doesn't mean we won't see any snow but it might be hard to come by. I think there will be brief cold air intrusions from the polar vortex and then it retreats and we are warm up again. It's going to be another roller coaster winter season. At least that is what the models are saying as of today. It might change next week. Such is the nature of wx computer forecasting.
On the other hand, the data does show that the polar vortex will try to visit us as early as Halloween this year.
Will freezing temperatures reach central Georgia on November 1st? I doubt it but this a good indication that cold air will invade the eastern half of the US some time after October 26th.
In other news, AccuWeather is now doing six week daily forecasts. I don't see how those can be reliable but at least you can spot trends and patterns. According to AccuWeather, we will see our first snow on November 15th which is about average.
Until then, enjoy the great fall weather.
Fall starts tomorrow!
Hooray - Today is the last 90 degree day! Autumn starts on Sunday, September 22. The high temperature will be 78 with some rain; which we desperately need because Indiana is in a moderate drought situation.
Other than that, enjoy the great weather coming up. We're going to have high temperatures in the 70's and low temperatures in the 50's and 60's.
For all my #bots friends, check this out:
105 degrees for next Tuesday?
Extreme heat is showing up for next Tuesday 8/27/24. Let's hope that this does not verify because sometimes when heat like this sets up, it doesn't want to leave.
The National Weather Service says:
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)... Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 A strong ridge currently located over the southern Plains is expected to gradually build eastward this weekend. At the surface, high pressure slides eastward as well allowing winds to become southwesterly. Strong warm air advection is expected to begin and continue through the weekend. A trend towards warmer-than-normal temperatures is likely, with highs once again climbing into the lower 90s at times. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the aforementioned synoptic setup and evolution. Uncertainty in the forecast arises with smaller-scale features that may allow for some precipitation chances by Sunday. These features (shortwaves riding up and over the ridge) should interact with a broad area of isentropic lift / warm advection to help initiate scattered showers/storms late Saturday into Sunday. Guidance currently keeps the bulk of this activity west of us across Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Nevertheless, there are some solutions within the broader ensemble that bring precipitation into Indiana. Will include slight chance PoPs on Sunday to account for this, but confidence is low given rather ambiguous model support. Next week, ensemble guidance hints that the ridge flattens a bit. Despite this, above-normal temperatures should persist as no air mass change appears imminent. Combined with humidity, heat indices may approach criteria level Monday and Tuesday. Deterministic models occasionally bring a cold front through the region late in the week, but timing and intensity differs run-to-run and model-to-model. As such, confidence in the forecast after about Thursday decreases substantially.
Today's heat index will be 101 degrees.
Be very careful if you are outside today.
FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1032 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 Forecast is on track with hot and humid conditions expected today. Temperatures across central Indiana are already near 80 degrees with dew points creeping into the mid 70s. The system set to move in later today is currently prompting warnings over northern Indiana. This line of storms should reach our forecast area late this afternoon into the evening hours. Models are still showing scattered storms with a few stronger storms potentially producing damaging winds. Otherwise, not expecting much in the way of precipitation amounts with anywhere from a few hundredths up to around half an inch.
It's hot but it's not that hot.
If you are a model watcher, the models are forecasting high temperatures that are about 4 to 5 degrees higher than what will actually occur.
Today is Tuesday July 30th at 4:15pm and the current temperature is 88 degrees. The HRRR for today at 4:00pm say 93 degrees. Obviously that is off by 5 degrees.
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