Rain then storms them snow and then the polar vortex.
There's a lot of rain coming this week. Storms are possible tomorrow. But the big story is that the Polar Vortex is on the move and will be arriving here by the end of next week. Snowstorms are starting to show up again. Something will likely happen between November 28 and December 5.
Enjoy the warmth for now because winter will return after Thanksgiving.
As you might already know it's going to be nice and warm this weekend. The warmth will likely continue into next week as well. Beyond that, it looks like the polar vortex will start moving out of Siberia and making its way around to America by the last week of November.
As a general rule, if it's warm in Alaska then it will be cold in Indiana. If it turns cold in Alaska then it will be warm in Indiana.
There's some other very nerdy stuff involved like the Bering Sea Rule, the Recurring Rossby Wave Train and then there's Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Anyone can look those up if they are interested but the main point is to look out for the polar vortex to come to Indiana just after Thanksgiving.
Enjoy the Northern Lights if you can see them and post pictures if you have them.
#BOTS! (Bring on the snow)
It's been rather boring in the weather department lately. The same goes for this week with mostly sunny skies, highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's. This week should be perfect for fall foliage so take some pictures and post them.
Before we see any snow, usually there is a severe weather event before the pattern changes to a colder one. That looks like it might happen next week.
The highly respected European computer model has a line of storms approaching on Friday and Sunday. After that is has snow flurries on Monday.
The American GFS model has the opposite. It has snow this coming Sunday and a tornado outbreak the following Sunday, November 16.
Nonetheless, expect a pattern change next week along with the threat of severe weather.
A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Watch for Monroe County Indiana.
This is it! This will mark the official end to the growing season.
Melissa could cause trouble by Friday. She should be a full blown hurricane by then but her path is undetermined.
Daylight Saving Time ends on Sunday, November 2.
We might see snow between November 4 and November 11.
The weather pattern is about to change in Bloomington over the next 48 hours.
If you haven't heard by now, a storm front is approaching our area for tomorrow. It looks like light rain and drizzle will be possible after 4:00pm while the main event starts after 8:00pm. The National Weather Service says we'll see a high of 81 degrees tomorrow. I find that hard to believe but we'll see.
Once the front passes, we'll see high temperatures in the 60's starting on Sunday.
That last week of October looks wild. Some models say cold and others say warm. The most exciting part will be a very large storm producing a bomb cyclogenesis on the last week of October. The GFS has a 973 Low centered over North Dakota. The Euro has a 978 Low centered over Montana. The CFS has a 987 Low over Minnesota. So we know something big is brewing for the last week of October.
November looks to be colder than average. I predict that we will see our first snowflakes by November 11th.
Enjoy the Covered Bridge Festival this weekend.
No frost tonight for Bloomington, Indiana.
We'll see a temperature around 39 degrees tonight. It has to be 36 degrees to have frost so that means we won't see any.
Some of the counties to our north are under a Frost Advisory. Lucky them!
The National Weather Service has posted historical data on the first frost and freeze for various locations in Indiana. You can find that here:
https://www.weather.gov/ind/frostfreezedate
38 degrees for Thursday night!
How about that? I don't think there will be any widespread frost just yet but if the temperature is adjusted downward by 2 more degrees then we could see some frost.
Why are temperatures in the mid 80's in October?
It's because most of central Indiana is in a moderate drought. On one had, this keeps the humidity down. On the other hand, it allows the heat to take over.
The good news is that we should have some rain Monday night through Tuesday. That will cool us down a lot. Temperature should be in the 70's from Tuesday onwards next week. Then another cool down comes around October 20.
And who's ready for snow? The longe range computer models have snow showing up between Halloween and November 5th. We have had snow flurries on Halloween before so it's not unheard of.
Also, I am predicting that peak fall colors will occur in Monroe County Indiana on October 27, 2025.
The weather computer models are showing a lot of wild stuff or Indiana.
The weather is beautiful right now. Enjoy it while you can. Rain returns tonight after 8:00pm and it should last through the early morning hours. There might be a few Flood Watches posted to our south.
Next up: The weather models have been showing a lot of interesting things. Here are a few examples:
Near 90 degree heat again for October 1.
A pattern-changing cold front between October 9 and 14.
And snow flurries showing up for October 20.
Summer's last stand is now through next week.
If you haven't heard yet, the 90 degree heat will be back next week. This will be summer's last stand. You can expect it to be hot and dry for the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 80's and a few 90's next week. After that, fall temperatures are here to stay.
Has anyone noticed that the leaves start changing colors in late August? There are some spectacular colors out there already!
Frost by September 22?
Fall is on the way!
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