Ice ice Baby!
Three of the weather models have been hinting at a New Year's Eve ice storm. And a big one. Two inches of ice? LOL!
A tornado warning was just posted north of St. Louis
There's a strong line of storms pushing eastwards. The the line of storms should be in Bloomington between 5:00 and 6:00pm today. Stay alert for chances of severe weather and very strong winds.
Rain changes to snow after midnight. There is also a chance of a flash freeze. Be careful driving to work tomorrow morning.
The longe range winter temperature forecast for January of 2026 looks terrifying!
Enjoy the warm Christmas Day. I'm so sorry that there won't be a White Christmas in Bloomington Indiana this year because it will be 55 to 60 degrees. It looks like the teleconnections are supporting a return to cold weather by January 5, 2026. After that, the Polar Vortex will return with a vengeance. The only thing that is unknown for our area is if it is a sustaining cold or if it oscillates. Let's hope it oscillates like it has done in December. Anyway, check out this brutally long range cold prediction from the CFS.
That a real air temperature of -20 degrees not a windchill temperature. And let's hope that is the low temperature for that day rather than the high temperature. And te -52 in North Dakota is like being in Siberia. Let's hope this is wrong.
Winter in Indiana!
Here is what the National Weather Service said for our last storm:
The second snowstorm is happening right now and I think the amounts will be the same. I think we will see three inches of snow. The main problem is the bitter cold. Don't forget to let your faucets drip and open your cabinets.
And just like always in Indiana, by next Thursday it will be 55 degrees with a rain as the Polar Vortex lifts. The pattern will flatten and oscillate between warm and cold until January 5th. After that, the Polar Vortex returns.
But here is the good news. The PV only visits us for a maximum of 72 hours. I can remember times when it got cold and stayed cold for several weeks; at least that is not happening.
It's going to be a wild weather pattern for Indiana as we approach Christmas Day of 2025!
We're going to get snow tomorrow night, Thursday (10/11) and then again on Saturday (10/13). The Polar Vortex will be here Saturday through Monday. After that it slowly warms up.
Currently there is a Winter Weather Advisory out for central Indiana for Thursday night. My prediction and /or guess is 1-3 inches just based on hi-res models. The National Weather Service is saying that we could get 2-6 inches.
The cold polar air will be brutal this weekend. Please be careful going out to watch the IU v. Kentucky basketball game. GO HOOSIERS! Windchills will be worse.
It looks like the pattern will be split during Christmas week. I'm seeing everything from an ice storm to a snow storm to tornadoes and even heavy rain. Check out this bizarre scenario:
Let's hope this doesn't happen. We like snow, not ice right?
Here is the long term discussion from the National Weather Service:
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 312 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Another round of snow is likely on Saturday. An upper level trough, surging Arctic air, weak low pressure, and an upper level jet will all combine to provide forcing across central Indiana on Saturday. Moisture will have not been cleared out from the previous system, so this forcing will have moisture to work with. The result will be snow spreading across the area from west to east Saturday, ending later in the day (potentially into the evening). Some differences remain in guidance on the amounts and location of the higher amounts. At the moment, another 1 to 3 inches of snow look to be a good bet for a large portion of the area. Higher amounts are possible, especially with some frontogenetical forcing in the area potentially leading to banding. (Blended guidance`s 24 hour snowfall 25th percentile is around 1 inch with 75th percentile 4-5 inches in locations with the highest totals). Arctic high pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday, providing bitterly cold conditions. Air temperatures will likely be below zero across portions of the area early Sunday and early Monday. Before the center of the high moves nearby, winds will make it feel even colder Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is the potential for wind chills from -10 to -20, which would require headlines. Will continue to monitor closely as the location of the deepest snow cover will have an impact on temperatures. The high will provide dry weather through Tuesday. As the area gets on the western side of the high, warm advection will return temperatures into the 30s for Tuesday and potentially even the 40s on Wednesday. A system could bring some precipitation by Wednesday, but it looks to be just rain if temperatures warm as expected.
Who wants sunny and 60 degrees for Christmas?
It probably wont happen but this one model interpretation.
Back in the 1990's people just called it a rain-snow mix.
That's what it is for southern Indiana on Saturday.
Winter Storm Watches are posted up to the Illinois / Indiana border
The weather models have been very unpredictable with this storm. The last 48 hours showed central Indiana getting a rain / snow mix while the main part of the snow went north of Indianapolis. The latest models have trended southwards. Even Louisville Kentucky might see a little snow. I would expect that some kind of an advisory or alert will be posted for our area right as the the turkey is done, or 6:00pm.
Winter Storm Watches are starting to go up in Iowa so what does this mean for Indiana?
The computer models have been all over the place. At this point, if I had to guess, I would say the northern third of Indiana gets a Winter Storm Warning sometime on Friday. The middle third of Indiana gets a Winter Weather Advisory and the southern third of Indiana gets a rain /snow mix. And all rain south of I-64. That's my best guess. Stay tuned...
A wild and complex pattern is emerging after Thanksgiving.
I don't think anyone knows what the weather will be like this coming weekend. If you really want to understand how complicated it is, you can read what the National Weather Service is thinking.
________
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 An active weather pattern continues next week with numerous systems bringing large temperature swings, rain, and windy conditions to the state. Tuesday... Weak troughing lifts northeastward into the Great Lakes Monday night while a jet streak overhead and an increasing low and mid level jet bring moisture northward into the state. The best moisture convergence is currently expected to remain south of central Indiana, however, modest isentropic lift within the strengthening LLJ support widespread rainfall early Tuesday morning with lingering showers through the day. Mid-level moisture will be minimal throughout, but strong upper level support and saturation above 500mb could lead to high rain rates at times. Generally, QPF totals for this event are likely to remain below 1 inch with most areas below 0.5 inches, highest rainfall amounts likely south of I-70. Southwesterly flow persists behind this initial system as a much stronger trough and associated low develop over the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. With the cold air locked up north behind the next system and a warmer airmass still overhead, high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s are expected despite clouds and showers. Wednesday through Friday... A significant pattern shift arrives the day before Thanksgiving as a strong trough to the north and associated front usher in an arctic airmass over the entire region. The front pushes through the state early Wednesday morning, but the lack of moisture behind the pressure trough passage earlier on Tuesday will limit rain shower coverage along the boundary. Despite only isolated to scattered showers signifying the front, the temperatures disparity along this frontal axis will be large, with temperatures quickly falling 10-15 degrees within a few hours from the low 50s to upper 30s early Wednesday morning. Steepening low level lapse rates as much colder air advects in aloft along with a strong 30-40 kt low level jet will make for a cold and windy day. West northwesterly winds 15-25 mph with gusts over 35-40 mph are likely...stronger gusts may be possible. Lower confidence in the temperature forecast for Wednesday as guidance may not be handling the set up well as temperatures may not follow a typical diurnal pattern. High temperatures may be reached early in the day before the front, with steady or falling temperatures in the 30s during the afternoon and evening. Wind chill values will likely remain below freezing all day, dropping into the teens by Wednesday night. Not too concerned with wintry weather at the moment as enough dry air should be advecting in, limiting snow showers within the cyclonic northwest flow pattern; however would not be surprised to see on and off flurries. Winter-like temperatures and breezy conditions persist Thanksgiving and Friday as strong northwesterly flow keeps an arctic airmass entrenched over the region. While conditions will be fairly dry, high temperatures may struggle to get above the freezing mark while wind chill values stay in the teens and 20s. Next Weekend into Early December... Confidence is increasing in a significant storm system and strong baroclinic zone developing next weekend and into the first week of December, setting the stage for an active period with widespread precipitation and large temperature swings. Long range guidance has been consistent in showing an active southwesterly subtropical jet across the Central and Southern CONUS in response to a sharpening SW to NE temperature gradient setting up from the Plains to the Great Lakes. This classic winter-time pattern can bring widespread heavy rain, snow, and storms to a large portion of the CONUS. While confidence is low on the specifics and exact evolution of mesoscale and synoptic scale features, confidence is increasing in this pattern developing with Central Indiana within or near the main storm track. The set up for Saturday is fairly complex as longer range guidance indicates a weak trough approaching from the northwest within the northern branch of the jet, while the subtropical jet increases southwesterly flow aloft through the Ohio Valley. Interactions from both the northern and southern branches of the jet can result in favorable set up for snow. Flow becomes southerly going into Saturday as a surface low tracks across the Midwest into the Great Lakes with sufficient moisture advection northward with a 30 kt LLJ overhead. Deeper cold air in place from the previous few days may take a while to retreat northward, setting the stage for a quasi overrunning event where warmer moist air overruns a cold, denser airmass at the surface. While confidence is lower in the finer details of this set up and the overall evolution and track of synoptic features, this will be a system to watch as any snow this time of year can cause major travel impacts. Keeping snow in for the first half of the day Saturday, transitioning to a rain/snow mix during the afternoon, then all rain by the evening. This is an initial forecast and details will likely change and be fine tuned over the next several days. The active pattern is expected to persist into the following week with additional waves of precipitation tracking through the state and large temperature swings. We will be monitoring this timeframe closely and updating the forecast accordingly as confidence increases on timing, track, and impacts.
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