Welp, last week's weather forecast predicted that we would be done with the 90+ degree heat. This week's high temperatures have been revised upwards each day. It's gone from 87 to 88 to 89 to 90. The NWS now says today's high is 91.
It looks like high temperatures will remain in the 88-92 range for the next two weeks. Here is what the National Weather Service is saying:
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025
The upper low tracking across the Canadian prairies will be blocked
from making it much further east than the northern Plains by strong
ridging over the eastern part of the country. The ridging will move
little into early next week maintaining a very warm and humid
airmass across the Ohio Valley with little to no threat for
convection. As the week progresses though...the upper level flow
will transition to more of a quasi-zonal regime which will enable
weak waves aloft to drop further south into the region and introduce
a better chance for scattered convection beginning Tuesday and
continuing for much of the rest of next week.
Saturday through Monday Night
Ridging aloft and at the surface will remain the primary features
influencing the weather across the Ohio Valley through the
weekend...and keeping the upper low and subsequent trough locked in
place across the northern and central Plains. This will leave a
typical humid midsummer airmass across central Indiana with daily
highs/lows within a few degrees either side of 90 and 70 degrees
respectively. The heating will breed moderate instability levels
each day through Monday despite the lingering mid level cap. Similar
to today...there will be a nonzero convective threat but it will be
difficult to see much more than a few stray showers or storms
considering the mitigating factors mentioned above. Will continue
with a dry forecast Saturday and Sunday but as the cap weakens
slightly by Monday...low chance pops for isolated storms will be
introduced.
One item to keep an eye on though will be the potential development
of a convective cluster over the upper Midwest on Saturday that
could drop into northern Illinois by the evening. The bulk of the
convection would likely migrate south or even southwest into
Saturday night following the deeper instability and riding along the
nose of the low level jet. While this would not directly impact the
forecast area...there could be a remnant outflow from the complex
that makes it this far southeast on Sunday to give a bit of an
assist to any isolated convective development for the afternoon.
Tuesday through Thursday
The flattening of the upper level flow will enable the perturbations
aloft to make a further south track into the region and bring a
daily threat for isolated to scattered convection each day. The main
convective risks through the period will again be on heavy rainfall
and localized flooding as a lack of substantial shear will ensure
slow movement to storms that will pulse up and down in intensity.
There is always the potential for a cell to strengthen enough
briefly to produce localized downbursts as the cores collapse but
that is likely to remain a secondary concern through late next week.
The airmass will remain warm...muggy and stagnant through much of
next week with highs in the mid and upper 80s and dewpoints likely
creeping up a bit into the lower 70s. There are growing signals that
this may continue right through next weekend and potentially even
beyond with cooler and drier air being held well north of the region.
Modeling:
The EURO says 90 degree hear though 8/23. That's as far as it can see.
The GFS says 88-91 degrees through 8/21 and a slight cool down to 84 degrees.
The AI says 88-93 degrees through 8/21 and then drastic cool down to 79 degrees.
The CFS says upper 80's trough 8/19 with fall arriving on 9/5
Perhaps we might get some relief in September. The first weeks of September is usually cooler than average.
Accuweather has very long-range monthly forecasts up to November. Here is a snapshot of September.
