Burl's Weather Page

Are you ready for winter?

So far all the climate data from the long range models are agreeing on temperatures averaging above normal for the upcoming Winter 2024-25 season. That doesn't mean we won't see any snow but it might be hard to come by. I think there will be brief cold air intrusions from the polar vortex and then it retreats and we are warm up again. It's going to be another roller coaster winter season. At least that is what the models are saying as of today. It might change next week. Such is the nature of wx computer forecasting.

On the other hand, the data does show that the polar vortex will try to visit us as early as Halloween this year.

Will freezing temperatures reach central Georgia on November 1st? I doubt it but this a good indication that cold air will invade the eastern half of the US some time after October 26th.

In other news, AccuWeather is now doing six week daily forecasts. I don't see how those can be reliable but at least you can spot trends and patterns. According to AccuWeather, we will see our first snow on November 15th which is about average.

Until then, enjoy the great fall weather.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/bloomington/47405/daily-weather-forecast/328780

Fall starts tomorrow!

Hooray - Today is the last 90 degree day! Autumn starts on Sunday, September 22. The high temperature will be 78 with some rain; which we desperately need because Indiana is in a moderate drought situation.

Other than that, enjoy the great weather coming up. We're going to have high temperatures in the 70's and low temperatures in the 50's and 60's.

For all my #bots friends, check this out:

105 degrees for next Tuesday?

Extreme heat is showing up for next Tuesday 8/27/24. Let's hope that this does not verify because sometimes when heat like this sets up, it doesn't want to leave.

The National Weather Service says:

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024

A strong ridge currently located over the southern Plains is
expected to gradually build eastward this weekend. At the surface,
high pressure slides eastward as well allowing winds to become
southwesterly. Strong warm air advection is expected to begin and
continue through the weekend. A trend towards warmer-than-normal
temperatures is likely, with highs once again climbing into the
lower 90s at times.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the aforementioned
synoptic setup and evolution. Uncertainty in the forecast arises
with smaller-scale features that may allow for some precipitation
chances by Sunday. These features (shortwaves riding up and over the
ridge) should interact with a broad area of isentropic lift / warm
advection to help initiate scattered showers/storms late Saturday
into Sunday. Guidance currently keeps the bulk of this activity west
of us across Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Nevertheless, there are
some solutions within the broader ensemble that bring precipitation
into Indiana. Will include slight chance PoPs on Sunday to account
for this, but confidence is low given rather ambiguous model support.

Next week, ensemble guidance hints that the ridge flattens a bit.
Despite this, above-normal temperatures should persist as no air
mass change appears imminent. Combined with humidity, heat indices
may approach criteria level Monday and Tuesday. Deterministic models
occasionally bring a cold front through the region late in the week,
but timing and intensity differs run-to-run and model-to-model. As
such, confidence in the forecast after about Thursday decreases
substantially.

Today's heat index will be 101 degrees.

Be very careful if you are outside today.

FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

Forecast is on track with hot and humid conditions expected today.
Temperatures across central Indiana are already near 80 degrees with
dew points creeping into the mid 70s. The system set to move in
later today is currently prompting warnings over northern Indiana.
This line of storms should reach our forecast area late this
afternoon into the evening hours. Models are still showing scattered
storms with a few stronger storms potentially producing damaging
winds. Otherwise, not expecting much in the way of precipitation
amounts with anywhere from a few hundredths up to around half an
inch.