A large storm seems to be brewing between December 2 and December 5, 2024.

If you haven't heard about this yet, you soon will. I don't even think Ryan Hall is talking about it yet. All the models (including the AI version) are hinting at a big storm system between December 2 and December 5. When all the models are in agreement on it, it's likely going to happen. The only differences in the models are exact placement, timing and the type of precipitation.

Normally in November we have one more severe weather outbreak before we finally transition into winter weather and I think this will happen during that 11/2 to 11/5 timeframe. The most trusted model, the EURO has a severe tornado outbreak followed by heavy snow. 

Keep in mind that this in the long range, or 15 days away so the forecast will change many times before then but just be alert for that timeframe. Expect to see something like this:

LOOK at the 975mb low pressure below! That is really low!

Also notice that classic comma shape. The center of the storm is in Canada and it is bringing freezing temperatures to Mississippi. Check out the temperatures for 12/3/24.

What will become of the National Weather Service?

Already in political crosshairs, fates of NOAA and FEMA hang in the election balance

The Election, NOAA, And Project 2025

 

Our first snow of the 2024-25 season starts tomorrow.

#BOTS!

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
214 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-211915-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
214 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Snow likely towards daybreak Thursday with amounts up to a half inch.
Westerly wind gusts to 30 mph through the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Snow returns Thursday afternoon with 1 to 2 inches of snow expected.
Locally higher amounts possible, but much of the accumulations will
be on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Wind gusts to 40 MPH are possible Thursday as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any accumulating snow measurements
tonight into Thursday night.

A piece of the polar vortex will visit Indiana next week.

A taste of winter will arrive by November 21 and it might hang around for a week. Get prepared for a jolt to your system! We should see the first snowflakes of the 2024-25 season next Thursday or Friday. My confidence is pretty high on this since all the teleconnections are lined up for it to happen and the computer models are agreeing on it and the National Weather Service is already mentioning it. (See below) 

Also, the long range models are showing some really cold air for mid December but long range models can't be trusted that far out. I'm so excited. Bring On The Snow!

From the National Weather Service:

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 159 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Stratus or stratocumulus will likely persist much of the day Friday
due to residual moisture and mixing beneath strong subsidence
inversion. This should clear Friday night as modest drying
continues, with MSLP high center being placed favorably for light
winds. Fog may form on the western periphery of residual stratus
layer early Saturday morning, though the signal in the models isn`t
currently significant and its spatial extent may be limited.

As the mean ridge axis moves east, a continued warming will occur
this weekend with +5-10 degree 2-m temperature anomalies expected.
The normal high is 53 and the normal low is 36.

There is some ensemble spread by Sunday-Monday, though not
significant. There is a dipole among the GEFS-weighted cluster and
the EPS-weighted cluster with regards to characteristics of a low
amplitude shortwave trough within the northern stream. The more
amplified GEFS camp suggests better rain chances into central
Indiana, forced by a narrow midlevel baroclinic zone paired with
modified ribbon of returning deep moisture. The ECMWF-camp is less
amplified and mostly confined the southern extent of precipitation
to northern Indiana.

Next week, we appear to enter a period that is more synoptically
complicated, with potential blocking due to strong positive height
anomalies at higher latitudes. This is a low predictability scenario
for medium-range guidance. There is a signal for a deep closed low
to evolve over/near our region, but placement and timing has been
inconsistent within recent model cycles. Clustering technique shows
a variety of ridge/trough placements. Regardless, most models do
indicate an eastward progress so the forecast challenge is more with
specific timing of warm pre-frontal rain band, followed by how soon
we get under the deep closed low with colder air and lingering
precipitation, and how long that persists.

Day 8-14: Late in the week the aforementioned deep closed low may
progress enough eastward for cold air to align with embedded
shortwave perturbations for some snow, though likely not substantial
amounts. Thereafter, ensemble spread is large and the only thing we
can say with any degree of confidence is that anomalous ridging and
warm conditions look less likely the weekend after next into the
week of the 25th, after what has been an extended period of
anomalous warmth.

Pictures of trees in Bloomington Indiana

Some trees are already bare. 

 

Get your fall picturres in now!

The weather has been fairly boring for the last three months. We haven't had much rain but now it looks like it's going to rain for Halloween which is Thursday. And today the wind is blowing so if you want to get pictures of fall colors on the trees, do it now and certainly before Thursday. I expect the trees to become bare after the weekend. Share photos if you have them.

Are you ready for winter?

So far all the climate data from the long range models are agreeing on temperatures averaging above normal for the upcoming Winter 2024-25 season. That doesn't mean we won't see any snow but it might be hard to come by. I think there will be brief cold air intrusions from the polar vortex and then it retreats and we are warm up again. It's going to be another roller coaster winter season. At least that is what the models are saying as of today. It might change next week. Such is the nature of wx computer forecasting. 

On the other hand, the data does show that the polar vortex will try to visit us as early as Halloween this year. 

Will freezing temperatures reach central Georgia on November 1st? I doubt it but this a good indication that cold air will invade the eastern half of the US some time after October 26th.

In other news, AccuWeather is now doing six week daily forecasts. I don't see how those can be reliable but at least you can spot trends and patterns. According to AccuWeather, we will see our first snow on November 15th which is about average.

Until then, enjoy the great fall weather.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/bloomington/47405/daily-weather-forecast/328780

Fall starts tomorrow!

Hooray - Today is the last 90 degree day! Autumn starts on Sunday, September 22.  The high temperature will be 78 with some rain; which we desperately need because Indiana is in a moderate drought situation. 

Other than that, enjoy the great weather coming up. We're going to have high temperatures in the 70's and low temperatures in the 50's and 60's.

For all my #bots friends, check this out:

105 degrees for next Tuesday?

Extreme heat is showing up for next Tuesday 8/27/24. Let's hope that this does not verify because sometimes when heat like this sets up, it doesn't want to leave.

The National Weather Service says:

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024

A strong ridge currently located over the southern Plains is
expected to gradually build eastward this weekend. At the surface,
high pressure slides eastward as well allowing winds to become
southwesterly. Strong warm air advection is expected to begin and
continue through the weekend. A trend towards warmer-than-normal
temperatures is likely, with highs once again climbing into the
lower 90s at times.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the aforementioned
synoptic setup and evolution. Uncertainty in the forecast arises
with smaller-scale features that may allow for some precipitation
chances by Sunday. These features (shortwaves riding up and over the
ridge) should interact with a broad area of isentropic lift / warm
advection to help initiate scattered showers/storms late Saturday
into Sunday. Guidance currently keeps the bulk of this activity west
of us across Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Nevertheless, there are
some solutions within the broader ensemble that bring precipitation
into Indiana. Will include slight chance PoPs on Sunday to account
for this, but confidence is low given rather ambiguous model support.

Next week, ensemble guidance hints that the ridge flattens a bit.
Despite this, above-normal temperatures should persist as no air
mass change appears imminent. Combined with humidity, heat indices
may approach criteria level Monday and Tuesday. Deterministic models
occasionally bring a cold front through the region late in the week,
but timing and intensity differs run-to-run and model-to-model. As
such, confidence in the forecast after about Thursday decreases
substantially.

Today's heat index will be 101 degrees.

Be very careful if you are outside today.

FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

Forecast is on track with hot and humid conditions expected today.
Temperatures across central Indiana are already near 80 degrees with
dew points creeping into the mid 70s. The system set to move in
later today is currently prompting warnings over northern Indiana.
This line of storms should reach our forecast area late this
afternoon into the evening hours. Models are still showing scattered
storms with a few stronger storms potentially producing damaging
winds. Otherwise, not expecting much in the way of precipitation
amounts with anywhere from a few hundredths up to around half an
inch.

Most favored winter storm tracks for 2024-25.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYWkRaMomlA