Beware of social media hype on snowstorm predictions.
Yes, there will be a snowstorm somewhere in the Ohio Valley between 1/23 and 1/28 but no one has any details this far in advance. So be very careful and distrustful of what you see on social media. Here are two such examples:
This would be Stephen King thriller novel if it happened.
Cenrtal Indiana is about to head into the heart of winter.
Winter will kick in starting on Thursday, January 15th and it might not let up until the second week of February or near Valentine's Day. Of special interest is the last week of January. All the ingredients are there for a major winter storm to develop somewhere in the Ohio Valley. Both the GFS and EURO are in agreement that something is brewing between January 23 and January 28. That is the timeframe to watch. Get your ice scrapers and snow shovels ready and Bring On The Snow! BOTS!
The Polar Vortex will visit Indiana during the last week of January into February.
Check out this long range model 2M AGL temperature map from the CFS for February 3rd.
My winter weather prediction for central Indiana for the rest of January and into February of 2026.
It looks like the Polar Vortex will return after January 15th. When it arrives, it will make it as far south as Indianapolis and then it will work its way farther south as each clipper system dives down from Canada. The pattern evolving has three different storm tracks. I drew an ugly picture for you all. The two blue lines represent cold air intrusions from Canada from the PV. The first (top) blue line puts Bloomington in the warm sector but not by much. The second blue line (bottom) puts Bloomington in the cold sector. The red line represents the southern branch of the jet stream.
One of these could be the dominant feature or, two of them could be the dominant feature. If the second blue line and the red line phase together early enough and strengthen early-on, that could give us a Big Mama snowstorm. But that's a big “if”. Right now, I don't see any chances for big snows until after January 21st. If you are not from central Indiana, we typically get out big snows from about January 18th to February 14th. That is the sweet spot for big snows. Now, that's not to say that it can't happen before that period or after that period but that is the norm for central Indiana.
Okay, so here is an example of how the Polar Vortex will likely set up:
Another thing that I've noticed is that the first week of February is trending colder; much colder than normal. Check out the period between February 6 through February 9. How about that -22 degrees at 7:00AM on February 6?
There's not much snow in the 10 day forecast but I think we'll see snow during the last week of January. For now though, expect that infamous "Snow Hole" over Indiana. The first below is the GFS model and the second one is the Euro model.
Both the GFS and the Euro have AI Models and here are their predictions respectively. Same sharp cut-offs.
Lastly, the CFS is the longest range model that I know of and it is not to be trusted this far out but here is a map of total snowfall accumulation between now and February 9th.
That's a whopping 16 inches of snow in the picture above.
So here are my predictions:
Off and on warm & cold with small snow shower chances and rain now through January 15th.
The Polar Vortex comes to visit after January 15th and sets up near Indianapolis.
The Polar Vortex digs farther south by January 20th.
Expect a snowstorm somewhere in the Ohio Valley and the northeast during the last week of January.
Expect a very cold opening to February.
#BOTS!
(Bring On The Snow!)
Where is winter? When is it coming back?
It's going to be a warm week with temperatures in the upper 50's and lower 60's. There's a chance for thunderstorms on Friday. After that, snow returns on Sunday.
The overall pattern will flip back and forth between warm and cold until January 15th. After that the models are hinting at sustained cold and multiple clipper snows from Canada.
#BOTS!
A Tornado Watch has been posted until 9pm.
There are already confirmed tornadoes on the ground in Illinois. The wind energy with this system is very strong. The line should arrive in Bloomington between 7:30pm and 8:30pm. You'll want to be in your safe place by then. The dewpoint should be right around 60. Stay safe.
Ice ice Baby!
Three of the weather models have been hinting at a New Year's Eve ice storm. And a big one. Two inches of ice? LOL!
A tornado warning was just posted north of St. Louis
There's a strong line of storms pushing eastwards. The the line of storms should be in Bloomington between 5:00 and 6:00pm today. Stay alert for chances of severe weather and very strong winds.
Rain changes to snow after midnight. There is also a chance of a flash freeze. Be careful driving to work tomorrow morning.
The longe range winter temperature forecast for January of 2026 looks terrifying!
Enjoy the warm Christmas Day. I'm so sorry that there won't be a White Christmas in Bloomington Indiana this year because it will be 55 to 60 degrees. It looks like the teleconnections are supporting a return to cold weather by January 5, 2026. After that, the Polar Vortex will return with a vengeance. The only thing that is unknown for our area is if it is a sustaining cold or if it oscillates. Let's hope it oscillates like it has done in December. Anyway, check out this brutally long range cold prediction from the CFS.
That a real air temperature of -20 degrees not a windchill temperature. And let's hope that is the low temperature for that day rather than the high temperature. And te -52 in North Dakota is like being in Siberia. Let's hope this is wrong.
Winter in Indiana!
Here is what the National Weather Service said for our last storm:
The second snowstorm is happening right now and I think the amounts will be the same. I think we will see three inches of snow. The main problem is the bitter cold. Don't forget to let your faucets drip and open your cabinets.
And just like always in Indiana, by next Thursday it will be 55 degrees with a rain as the Polar Vortex lifts. The pattern will flatten and oscillate between warm and cold until January 5th. After that, the Polar Vortex returns.
But here is the good news. The PV only visits us for a maximum of 72 hours. I can remember times when it got cold and stayed cold for several weeks; at least that is not happening.
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