Burl's Weather Page

Insane and intense heat for Montana and North Dakota

I've never seen anything like this before! If I told you that by this weekend it will be hotter in Montana than in Mexico would you believe me?

This will be all over the news in the next few days. If you have friends in Bozeman, MT or Bismarck, ND you should probably warn them now. They are used to intense cold but not this kind of intense heat.

The GFS has the hottest temperatures.

The EURO has slightly cooler temperatures but not by much.

The bad news about the GFS vs the EURO is that the GFS keeps the heat in that same area while the EURO moves it east into Indiana. Could we get to 100 degrees a week from today? It certainly is within the 7-day forecast range. Because we are in an unprecedented El Nino phase, I don't think you should trust your phone weather apps until Monday 7-13-26.

No matter what happens, the National Weather Service is sure that the most intense heat will set up across Montana and North Dakota.

The 90's are coming back!

Starting Sunday, high temperatures will be in the 90's through most of next week.

Also, line of storms might try to push through tomorrow between 2pm and 7pm.

Heavy Rain & a Chance of Tornadoes Tonight.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms tonight with a chance of tornadoes. Let's hope this is not a 'never ending story'. Sometimes patterns set up and stay in place for long periods of time.

Severe storms will be in Indiana on Wednesday, June 17.

You will want to stay alert on Wednesday. All of the data points to severe storms and heavy rain. The National Weather Service has issued a map showing the severity of the storms and their location.

Expect summer heat to settle in next week.

Expect the temperatures to be in the upper 80's to near 90 degrees next week.

What you wont here in the news is that a larger winter-like low pressure system will appear over the upper midwest for the second half of June bringing below normal temperatures. The heat will last until June 16 and then there will be a gradual cooldown.

Brand new weather model debuts today and more on August 31, 2026.

The EURO model and the EURO AI model got an upgrade last night and some models are being replaced by other models on August 31, 2026.

National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD Service Change Notice 26-48

Here is the AI summary of the changes:

Effective August 31, 2026, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Silver Spring, MD, will implement the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) and RRFS Ensemble Forecast System (REFS), replacing the legacy NAM, HREF, SREF, and HiresW models. Other 2026 changes include updates to climate data assimilation (CORe), Day 4-5 excessive rainfall discussions, and the transition of GFS model products. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Key 2026 Model Changes and Updates

RRFS and REFS Implementation (Aug 31, 2026): NCEP will launch these new modeling systems, marking a major shift in convective-allowing modeling.
Retirement of Legacy Models: The NAM, HREF, SREF, and HiresW models will be retired on Aug 31, 2026.
CORe Implementation (Mar 2026): The Climate Object-oriented Reanalysis (CORe) replaces the Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS) for atmospheric reanalysis, offering improved data from 1950 to present.
ERO Enhancements (May 2026): Day 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) discussions are being integrated into the QPFERD product.
GFS Product Changes: Public comments are being solicited for the proposed termination of various Global Forecast System (GFS) products. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Operational Changes & Notices

NOMADS Upgrade (Feb 23, 2026): OpenDAP access is being retired, requiring users to switch to grib filter or HTTPS downloads for NCEP model data.
Weather Prediction Models: Recent updates include improvements to the National Blend of Models (NBMv4.2/v5.0) and the experimental Wind Tropical Cyclone forecast Message (WTCM).
Notification System: Official notices are available through the NWS Service Change Notices page. [2, 5, 6, 7, 8]

For the full list of retired products and detailed technical changes, refer to SCN 26-47. [1]

AI responses may include mistakes.

[1] https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-48_RRFS_and_REFS_Implementation.pdf

[2] https://www.weather.gov/notification/

[3] https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-43_D4_5_ERO.pdf

[4] https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-12_CDAS_CORe_upgrade.pdf

[5] https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-74_wssi-p_2025_t2o.pdf

[6] https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-64_WTCM_on_SBN.pdf

[7] https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-81_UPDATED_NOMADS_Consolidate_Subsetting_Services_aaa.pdf

[8] https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-24NBM_V5.0.pdf

New update from the National Weather Service includes Bloomignton.

The latest severe weather outlook issued from the National Weather Services's Storm Prediction Center now includes a slight risk for Bloomington Indiana. Yesterday it was a marginal risk. It also includes a moderate risk for Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri which is typical 'tornado alley'.

Who's ready for snow in May?

Well, specifically the GFS is giving us snow for May Day.

It's probabaly never going to happen but I just wanted to put that out there.

The big news is the severe weather outbreak in the middle of the country today. If you have family in orange shade area, you should call them and warn them about the possibilty of tornadoes today.

Specifically Wisconsin!

But, believe it or not, the Polar Vorttex will try to make a cimeback but I doubt we will see any snow. There might be snow in Canada and in the extreme nothern Great Lakes and in Maine but not in Indiana. Watch how the red heat goes to green and blue cold on the GFS model.