Enjoy the warm weather while it lasts. By December 6th we'll see sustained high temperatures in the 30's. There is a possibility that we might see some snow a week later between December 13th and 16th. This colder pattern looks to hold in place for about ten days to two weeks and I think the pattern will ease up a little just after Christmas but that is too far away to tell right now. So once again, enjoy the warm weather while it lasts.
Also, there could be a risk for some severe weather during the transition to colder weather on December 6th.
Thanksgiving week will be a wild ride. High temperatures will be in the 50's some days and in the 30's on other days. Up and down... up and down. See the animation below for next week. I don't see any clear signs of snow showing up just yet. Hang in there,
#BOTS!
.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Issued at 142 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017
Quasi-zonal flow ends going into this period as several mid/high
level shortwave troughs will move over the area and bring periods
of rain. First wave will move from Alberta into the Great Lakes
Tuesday and Wednesday bring the first round of rain, then the next
one will move from the Pacific Northwest into the Plains starting
precipitation possibly as early as Thursday night, more likely on
Friday into early Saturday. There is low confidence in the
precipitation starting as early as Thursday like the Euro, but
maybe wait until Friday afternoon, which is what the GFS is
leaning towards. Both models bring a southerly advection of
moisture northward into the area, so there may be some moderate
rainfall with each of these systems. At this point in time, it
looks like the Friday system, but will keep a low confidence right
now on the timing/intensity of the second storm system.
Temperatures are forecast to be into the lower half of the 50s
Tuesday through Thursday before falling into the 40s again
Saturday. Low temperatures will generally be in the mid or upper
30s with the exception of Friday morning when lows are forecast in
the low/mid 40s.
There are a number of amateur and non-amateur weather geeks and weather nerds out there. You add that to the numerous websites that have free access to forecasting models and you're bound to hear some crazy gossip about much snow we are going to see in two weeks.
Yes, two weeks from today is Thanksgiving Day. That's also fourteen days away. There' very low confidence on anything a model churns out that far in advance. It's just not that trustworthy. So beware of internet posts showing charts and graphs depicting snow like this one:
It’s really important that anyone who is in charge of the safety of an institution — a university campus, for example — maintain an updated, working knowledge of how weather warnings work. Tweets sent today by Indiana University today could lead one to believe that its campus safety staff could benefit from some education in that area.
At 1:19 p.m. EST, the Indianapolis office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a tornado warning that included a portion of southern Monroe County, Indiana. The warning came with a polygon that clearly showed that the IU campus was not included.
Polygon associated with Nov. 5 tornado warning near Bloomington, IN. The National Weather Service issued the warning only for the area inside the red polygon.
In addition, the text of the warning indicated that “a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles northwest of Bedford, moving east at 30 mph.” In other words, the storm was not moving toward Bloomington or the IU campus (which is why NWS meteorologists drew the polygon as they did).
Six minutes after the NWS issued the warning, IU sent a tweet at 1:25 regarding what it called a “tornado warning for Bloomington.”
Dr. Kirkpatrick knew what he was talking about. Those sending tweets on behalf of IU demonstrated ignorance of the National Weather Service’s “storm-based warning” system. When the NWS implemented that system a decade ago, it replaced the county-wide warnings to which IU’s tweet refers, with warnings based on polygons that indicate where the actual risk is.
In subsequent tweets, Dr. Kirkpatrick attempted to point that out, as well as the fact that IU’s original tweet was ambiguous. IU’s response:
But is warning people who are not at risk really better than warning only people who are truly at risk? Is doing so truly “safe,” or does it exacerbate existing challenges with getting people to respond appropriately to warnings?
The people at any institution like IU, who are in charge of disseminating public safety information, would do well to take full advantage of the informational resources that exist among their own faculty. Doing so could lead to better weather safety communications in the future.
The long range looks pretty boring right now. The pattern continues to be a very zonal west to east pattern with fast moving rain storms coming and going. High temperatures will trend in the 50's with low's in the upper 30's to 40's. for the next ten days to two weeks. This will likely be the pattern until Thanksgiving. After Thanksgiving we might have a better chance at seeing some snow.
#BOTS!
The Tornado Warning did last until 7:30mp last night; well past the initial Tornado Watch which ended at 7:00pm. I was right. The initial watch should have been extended to 7:30p as I posted below.
The cold front and the line of storms ahead of it will impact the Monroe County area from 6:30pm to 7:30pm. I would extend the Tornado Watch for another hour but it's not up to me. Meteorologist have the frontal passage (FROPA) arriving at 7:00pm.
There's been some partial clearing with sunlight. That means a little more daytime heating. More heat means more fuel for stronger storms. Also the dewpoint is back up to 63.
This is classic. It appears to be forming near I-70 and moving south east. Tornado Watch ends at 7:00pm if it is not extended. So, three and a half hours to go.
Tornado Warning
INC013-055-093-105-051900-
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.W.0027.171105T1819Z-171105T1900Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
119 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017
The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Southern Monroe County in south central Indiana...
Southwestern Brown County in south central Indiana...
Northern Lawrence County in south central Indiana...
Southeastern Greene County in southwestern Indiana...
* Until 200 PM EST
* At 119 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 12 miles northwest of Bedford, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Avoca around 125 PM EST.
Oolitic and Harrodsburg around 130 PM EST.
Fairfax State Recreation Area and Smithville around 135 PM EST.
Monroe Reservoir and Bartlettsville around 140 PM EST.
Heltonville around 145 PM EST.
Charles Deam Wilderness and Woodville Hills around 150 PM EST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
&&
LAT...LON 3890 8668 3890 8673 3905 8677 3919 8628
3905 8628 3905 8632 3899 8632 3899 8628
3892 8628 3888 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 256DEG 28KT 3899 8665
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017
TORNADO WATCH 511 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
INC001-005-009-011-013-015-021-023-027-029-031-035-041-045-047-
053-055-057-059-063-065-067-071-075-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-
105-107-109-119-121-133-135-137-139-145-153-157-159-161-165-167-
171-177-179-060000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0511.171105T1710Z-171106T0000Z/
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD
BOONE BROWN CARROLL
CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS
DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE
FAYETTE FOUNTAIN FRANKLIN
GRANT GREENE HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
HOWARD JACKSON JAY
JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX
LAWRENCE MADISON MARION
MARTIN MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN OWEN PARKE
PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY
RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN
TIPPECANOE TIPTON UNION
VERMILLION VIGO WARREN
WAYNE WELLS
$$
Be on the look out for strong storms and possible tornadoes throughout the state Indiana tomorrow. The National Weather Service has placed us under an "enhanced risk" for severe weather. It's been a while since we've been under an enhanced risk. We see a lot of marginal and slight risks but this is to be taken seriously.
The NWS forecast discussion:
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017
Primary focus for the short term remains squarely on the threat for
severe weather and locally heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon and
evening as low pressure and a strong cold front swing through the
region.
Thick low level clouds will likely persist across the forecast area
tonight as model soundings maintain a subtle yet shallow inversion.
Convective potential increases once again after midnight in response
to a low level jetsurge spreading over the area and a subtle
surface wave tracking from central Illinois northeast into north
central Indiana in the vicinity of the warm front. Model soundings
show a developing area of weak elevated instability accompanying the
surface feature...primarily focused over northwest portions of the
forecast area. CAMs beginning to capture the idea of convection
increasing in coverage overnight with the potential for a few
lightning strikes. Just looking at the thermodynamic setup...a few
of the stronger storms could throw out small hail as well. Will
raise pops to likely over essentially the northwest half of the
forecast area from 06-12Z with scatteredpops elsewhere. Showers and
storms may linger past daybreak Sunday over northern portions of the
area as continued low level forcing and broad ascent support
potential for additional convection.
The focus will shift to the potential for severe storms to impact
central Indiana...primarily during the afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides along the frontal boundary from the central Plains
into northern Indiana Sunday night. Enhanced low level flow will
enable a progressively deeper layer of moisture and a broad elevated
mixed layer to advect into the Ohio Valley through the day. Despite
cloudy skies...the airmass should have no problem becoming modestly
unstable over most of the forecast area...with values peaking
between 1000-2000 j/kg by late day. Dynamics aloft remain very
good...with diffluence noted aloft over the region and a dual upper
jet structure that would support enhanced convective potential
focused over northern portions of Indiana and Illinois. BLshear and
storm relativehelicity values are strongly supportive of the
potential for severe storms as well.
The primary tornado threat will likely align during the afternoon
and early evening in the vicinity of the warm front and immediately
ahead of the surface wave track. Confidence continues to increase in
the warm front setting up north of the forecast area over northern
Indiana. The greatest threat initially as convection develops during
the afternoon and migrates into the northern Wabash Valley may end
up being large and perhaps significant hail as mid level lapse rates
of 7-8C and higher are present over the region. Wet bulb zero values
between 8 and 9kft and the potential for nearly 10kft of the mid
levels within the hail growth zone both support the large hail
concern during the afternoon and early evening.
While supercellular structures are likely initially...support
pointing towards convection eventually aligning into a QLCS by early
evening with the primary severe threat shifting from large hail to
damaging winds as convection moves through the forecast area.
Isolated tornadoes remain a distinct possibility over central
Indiana into Sunday evening...especially considering the potential
for quick spinners to develop along the QLCS. That being said...the
continued presence of a subtle veer-back-veer wind profile and the
lack of an appreciable backingflow in the near surface layer both
suggest the tornado threat will be mitigated to some degree.
To recap...all modes of severe weather are on the table...but the
primary threat over central Indiana may be initially large hail
transitioning to damaging winds as the QLCS progresses across the
forecast area through the evening. An increase in the low level flow
with 850mb winds peaking at 50-55kts Sunday evening will maintain
convection into the night with intensity only decreasing slowly as
instability is gradually lost. The presence of the stronger low
level jet support the potential for heavy rainfall and localized
flooding Sunday night with max precip water values near the
climatological peak for early November.
Rain and lingering storms will be out of the forecast area prior to
daybreak Monday with the cold front settling over the Tennessee and
lower Ohio Valleys. A surface wave will drift into the Ohio Valley
along the boundary Monday night...providing a renewed threat for
showers focused over the southern half of the forecast area.
Temps...even with no sunshine expected Sunday...it will be
unseasonably warm as temperatures should warm into the lower and mid
70s with dewpoints into the 60s providing a distinctly muggy feel to
the air. Much cooler air will spread across the region in the wake
of the cold frontal passage with highs in the 50s. Lows tonight will
remain quite mild with the southerly flow in the warm sector...but
expect a return to lows primarily in the 40s by Monday night.
Overall...a general model blend matched up with low level thermals
nicely.
&&
