Light snow showers have finally started
Shouldn't amount to much but be careful anyway. There's plenty of salt on the roads.
Thursday, December 28th Sunrise Arctic Air Light Pillar
There was one arctic air light pillar this morning in Bloomington, Indiana. The pictures are not the greatest and it's hard to see but it was clearly visible to the naked eye.
Rain-Snow Mix at 36.
Ha! That rhymes. There was a rain / snow mix at 36 degrees in Bloomington at about 9:00am. Not much else has changed. Accumulating snow is likely north of I-70. There may be up to an inch in the Bloomington area.
NWS Forecast Discussion
(This is mainly for locations north of I-70)
.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Saturday/... Issued at 244 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 The main focus tonight and Saturday will be on precipitation coverage, type, and timing of changeover and or mix along with temperatures as a second cold front will drop through area overnight as the first one exits southeast early this evening. Following that, an upper wave will move through on Saturday. Model 295K isentropic analysis was showing low condensation pressure deficits spreading northwest this overnight to the northwest of the first cold front that may briefly stall or slow down, along the Ohio River, ahead of the second one. This should bring more widespread rain to all but areas north or Tipton and Crawfordsville. As the cold front sweeps through overnight, areas mostly near and north of Interstate 70 could see light snow accumulation. Forecast Builder was indicating a potential narrow band southwest to northeast oriented snow band of up to 1 inch near and north of Interstate 70 but with lesser to no accumulation northwest of a Kokomo to Frankfort to Newport line. Confidence is not great in snow amounts due to much drier air moving in, warm road and grassy surfaces and slightly above freezing surface temperatures. Any precipitation should being ending from northwest to southeast Saturday afternoon in the wake of the upper wave. With such a big airmass change, confidence is only low to moderate on temperatures to within a couple of degrees, so accepted the blend with overnight lows tonight in the lower to middle 30s and highs Saturday only in the middle 30s north to around 40 south. && .SHORT TERM /Saturday night through Christmas Day/... Issued at 244 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 Big challenge for the short term will be snowfall amounts and potential headlines for the northern half of the forecast area. Models in decent agreement that a deep and cold Canadian upper trough will pivot across central Indiana on Christmas Eve. Models, especially the 12z GFS were showing strong QVector convergence in the 850 to 500 millibar level pivoting over our northern counties Christmas Eve morning and afternoon before exiting northeast early Christmas Eve evening. With sub-freezing temperatures throughout the column , deep moisture per model soundings, snow ratios 15 to 20 to 1 suggesting dendritic growth potential and fairly impressive forcing, blend snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches near and north of I-70 look reasonable. Medium confidence, the Kokomo and Lafayette areas will likely see the highest amounts. With those snow amounts and the travel impact, feel moderately to highly confident headlines may be needed for Sunday and Sunday evening from around Vincennes to Marion county and north. However, after coordination and being the fourth period of the forecast, decided to hold off for now and go with a Special Weather Statement and will hit strongly in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and weather story. The snow will be ending quickly over the northeastern counties Christmas Eve evening with modified arctic high pressure nudging in from the northwest and resulting in cold but dry weather on Christmas Day. There could even be some clearing. Confidence on temperatures is low due to the expected snow pack. However, a good bet that at least the northern counties will be at least as cold as the blend with lows early Christmas morning in the tees and highs in the upper 20s at best.
A little snow for central Indiana and Bloomington over the Christmas weekend.
"Little" is the keyword here, especially south of I-70. I say that because I can see that there are various snow maps out there saying that we could get up to 3-5 inches of snow. That's just exaggerated. Had we been below freezing for the last 48 hours then it could be a possibility but it's just not likely given how warm the ground temperature is. That doesn't mean we wont see any accumulation though. The National Weather Service has just issued a Special Weather Statement that include Monroe County.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 334 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-230445- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur- Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute, Shelbyville, Bloomington, and Columbus 334 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 ...Accumulating Snow likely this Holiday Weekend... Light accumulating snow is likely this weekend. An inch or less is expected overnight tonight and Saturday over areas mainly near and north of Interstate 70. A more significant snowfall is expected Christmas Eve day and early Christmas Eve evening. 2 to 4 inches of accumulation is possible near and north of Interstate 70. Motorists should be alert to the potential of accumulating snow over the Holiday weekend and allow extra time for travel. Stay tuned for further updates from the National Weather Service Indianapolis.
Models Continue to show extreme cold next Tuesday (12/26) into Wednesday (12/27)
We'll see if it verifies. There is still a fight going on between the 1030 high and the south east ridge.
Extremely cold profile showing up for the day after Christmas.
Wow! This is some extremely cold air for December 26, 2017.
Thoughts on December 23 - 27.
Some of the models are keeping the storm track to our south. The south east ridge may not be as strong as we thought. The storm track looks something like this:
Cold, rain, then warmer, then colder.
The pattern is going to relax a bit and then change again. It will warm into the mid 40's on Saturday 12/16 and high temps will stay in the mid 40's until Thursday 12/21 of next week. After that temperatures will fall back into the 30's for highs.
There's a lot of talk about a Christmas Eve snowstorm but that is too far away to think about. Why do I say that? Well, we could get some snow but we could also get this:
There's a lot of talk about a Christmas Eve snowstorm but that is too far away to think about. Why do I say that? Well, we could get some snow but we could also get this:
A whole bunch of rain, or,
A whole bunch of nothing!
Light snow flurries occurring in Bloomington Indiana right now.
There was some graupel on my car this morning.
The NWS has posted a Hazardous Outlook for Central Indiana
This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Outlook: The wind chill will drop to the teens and even upper single digits at times tonight. Discussion: A modified arctic front will move in from the north late today and tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Outlook: Snow showers will be possible Friday night and Saturday as an upper wave moves through the Ohio Valley. Light snow accumulation is possible. There will be another chance of snow Monday night and Tuesday with another wave. Discussion: Upper waves will reinforce the cold weather and occasional chances for snow to the area into next week. The wind chill will drop to the teens and even upper single digits at times.
Cold and snow coming soon, #BOTS!
.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... Issued at 220 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 High confidence that temperatures will be plummeting early in the long term. Models in good agreement that a strong cold front will sweep east across central Indiana early Tuesday. The 00z GFS and Canadian runs were quicker than 12z ECMWF were around 6 hours quicker with this front and lingering QPF. The blend seemed to side closer to the ECMWF solution. Confidence in exact timing is not great, but either way the bulk of the showers should end no later than Tuesday afternoon and likely earlier and temperatures will be falling in cold post-frontal advection. The next issue will be temperatures as models agree that various waves and high amplitude western ridging will allow for a deep trough to expand south and eastward over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the remainder of next week. Model 850 millibar temperatures fall all the way to the negative teens late next week. This modified arctic airmass suggests late week temperatures may struggle to reach the freezing mark over our far northern counties. Canadian and GFS in particular suggest a clipper system will drop southeast across the area Thursday night and Friday with the potential for our first light snow accumulation possible. Overall, blend temperatures may not be cold enough.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)