Burl's Weather Page: December 2018

A warmer than expected January?

Two weeks ago there were indications that the weather pattern would flip to a drastically colder one but that hasn't happened yet. In fact the first week of December looks to be fairly average. We might get to 50 degrees on Monday and cool down before getting to the mid to upper 40's for next weekend.
Here's the NWS forecast discussion:

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 222 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

Fairly uneventful long term period of the forecast expected as
large surface high pressure axis looks to shut down precipitation
chances across the area. An upper level wave may move through the
area Wednesday night into Thursday, but a very dry column will
preclude any precipitation chances with this feature.

Temperatures through the period will be relatively seasonable,
perhaps climbing a bit above normal late in the period as upper
level flow becomes more zonal/weakly anticyclonic over the region.

National Weather Service to remain open!

Rain is mixing with snow in Bloomington.

Rain /snow mix at 2:00pm.

#BOTS

Winter Solstice starts today at 5:23pm

Winter officially kicks off at 5:23pm this evening.

#BOTS

High uncertainty about next week.

I know it sound likes I'm repeating myself but at this distance no one knows what's going to happen next week.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 254 PM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

Models are having differences in the long term with timing and
strength of various waves in the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Thus,
timing and coverage of any precipitation is low confidence. That
said, with moisture lacking, it looks like a good chance that most
areas will be dry through Christmas Day. Then, the last in a series
of waves has the potential to tap more moisture by midweek. Thus,
the blend chance PoPs look reasonable by Christmas night. BUFKIT
suggests a mix of snow and rain.

Low level thermals suggest seasonable to slightly above normal
temperatures for the entire extended. This looks reasonable per the
blend.

NOAA SciJinks page on weather reliability.

This is an excellent page on understanding forecast reliability.

In short, this graphic sums it up.

Old lessons learned again.

Forecasting two weeks out is probably not a good idea. Two weeks ago most people thought the cold air would return by Christmas Day. Remember this?

Now the current data says this:

So how long will the warmth continue? I don't know, but it will continue for the rest of this week; that is for sure. What do I mean by warm? I mean warmer than average where the average for this time of year is 39 / 23 (Hi temp / Low temp). That is verified by the NWS forecast for this week.

Beyond that, the trend looks average to slightly warmer than normal. Again, this data is too far into the future to be reliable so it is not trustworthy.

Radar mystery hasn't been solved yet.

"Citing an unnamed pilot, he said Evansville air traffic control claimed a military C-130 released a stream of chaff – radar-jamming material sometimes used during training exercises – a few miles northwest of Evansville."

Yeah right!

What the heck is going on in Evansville Indiana? UFO's?

Radar returns are showing a small intense storm but there are no storm reports coming in from that area. There are no storms forecast for that area so what could it be? I say UFO's!

What are Chaff Events?

Chaff is composed of small, aluminum-coated, silica core strands and is known for its highly reflective properties in the microwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum [United States Air Force (USAF) 1997].
______________

Metallic aluminum objects in the atmosphere? Yep! UFO's! What accounts for moving this fast?

Update for 12/7/2018

High temperatures in the mid to upper 30's and lows in the 20's until next Tuesday and all days will be sunny and dry. It going to be very boring in the weather department for a few days. I don't anything interesting until a week from today which is on Friday December 14th.

Huge ice crystals this morning!

There were some huge ice crystals on top of my this morning. They were the largest I've ever seen. This is amazing.

Rain /snow mix right now in Bloomington

Do heed warnings for slick spots. The temperature is 36 degrees right now but it will fall to 32 by 7:30pm and 19 degrees overnight and that means re-freezing on roads. From the NWS:

Special Weather Statement...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
236 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

...Slick Spots Possible on Roads and Overpasses...

Light snow continues across much of central Indiana and will move
through the area through the afternoon rush hour and into this
evening. The snow could produce some slick spots on roads and
overpasses.

Motorists are encouraged to use caution on area roads into this
evening.

Weekend snow is still uncertain at this point.

Once the storm comes on shore and we get it sampled then tomorrow's data should be spot on. The NWS in Louisville has posted this for now.

The seesaw pattern continues

Warm next week and then cold the following.

The mid December pattern is very interesting.

These guys again!

It looks like about once a year and usually during the winter that they take a decent amount of flak on twitter for posting where a snowstorm might occur and then when it doesn't happen people get mad. That storm has been trending father south with each new run. At one point the storm disappeared. We won't know anything for certain until late Wednesday or early Thursday morning.

Storms are firing up in central Illinois

A tornado watch in effect for Illinois.

The sun is shining in Bloomington.

@2:30pm. This is bad news. Sunlight in between systems provides more fuel for stronger storms later this evening. Stay tuned.

Watch for a line of storms this evening.

Be alert between the hours of 2:00pm and 8:00pm. A line of storms will try to pop up in Illinois and push into Indiana. There are indications that it might not make it here but it's worth noting. There will also be some small pop up showers here in Indiana as well.

Burl's Weather Page