3 days of heat before relief.

90's today, Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler for the rest of the week. No rain in sight in the near future. Sorry.

The heat hangs on!

Be careful while out and about. It is unusually warm for this time of year. I know people will be out enjoying the Lotus Festival. Be sure to drink plenty of water. High temperatures will be near 90 degrees from today 9/27 until Thursday 10/2. After that we get some relief. Check out the forecast low temperature for October 8th:

Here's the latest discussion from the National Weather Service:

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

Typically during this time of year...folks are preparing for
evening bonfires, holding outdoor festivals, and enjoying the
start of a secondary grilling season. The reason these things are
planned for this time of year...is because the weather across
central Indiana is typically pleasant. Well, it appears as if
summer just will not give it up...and will not do so in
impressive, maybe even record fashion.

The extended timeframe begins with expansive upper ridge of high
pressure centered over the Gulf States, but with wide-reaching
effects. A broad upper trough is progged to be centered over the
Pacific NW and Northern Rockies States...affecting the western US.
Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days of the period. The
upper ridge expands slightly northward Monday afternoon...with
20C temps at 850mb across central Indiana. Thus, record setting 90
degree maximum temps are in play. 20C temps at 850mb hang around
for Tuesday allowing for another 90 degree day. By Wednesday, the
northern portion of the upper ridge begins to break down as the
upper trough over the Pacific Northwest begins to lift out toward
the upper Plains States. This, and a frontal boundary from the
north, will help start to depress the 850mb temps across the area
for Wednesday. 18-20C at 850mb will still lead to warmer than
normal conditions and the potential for a max temp record to be
tied or fall. Morning lows near 70 degrees may threaten the
warmest minimum temp records. Have continued listing the Daily
Records for 9/30-10/2 and the all-time October record high below
at the end of the Long Term section.

With the upper ridge and surface high pressure in control during
the early half of the extended...not currently expecting any rain
across the forecast area. As was mentioned in the previous
paragraph...the northern portion of the upper ridge begins to
break down Wednesday and a frontal boundary begins to approach
from the north. This front represents the best chance for rain in
the extended timeframe...from late Wednesday through Thursday. A
return to more seasonal temps is expected for Thursday...with
highs in the 70s.

Indy Record Highs:
9/30: 89 (1971)
10/1: 89 (1897)
10/2: 89 (1953)
October: 91 (10/8/2007)

Bad news for #BOTS fans.

It's still too early to talk about #BOTS but the National Weather Service has issued its October through December outlook and it looks warmer than normal and drier that normal.

Things can always change though.

Next week is a big toss up!

I've seen forecasts for high temperatures near 90 and one low temperature near freezing. Don't trust your phone's weather app any more the 48 hours ahead for next week. So check this out:

89 degrees on October 3rd.

Freezing on October 4.

(The blue 540 line is the freezing line above.)

Here's what the NWS says:

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday Night/...

Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019

Models agree that upper level southwesterly flow will set up over
the region this weekend. The pressure gradient is expected to
tighten on Friday leading to winds of 10 to 15 kts and gusting to
25 kts during the day. Any short waves or disturbances that form
from Friday to Saturday could cause rain showers to form over the
area. Confidence is low at this time on timing or location of rain
so went with guidance on PoPs in the long term.

By Monday, the upper level ridge is expected to expand into the
Ohio Valley which will lead to mostly dry weather for the end of
the period.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 80s with lows in the 60s
for the long term. Winds will mostly be out of the southwest at 3
to 10 kts throughout most of the period with stronger winds on
Friday.

Good news and bad news.

We've been dry here in central Indiana for a long time but we are not in a drought. Here is the latest drought information:

So, the good news is that we have a 60% chance of rain tonight so we should see some relief and hopefully this will help people with allergies.

We will see high temperatures in the 70's for the rest of the week, but... the bad news is that the summer heat is going to hang on for a while. The tropics remain very active and each tropical system that approaches the USA brings a surge of heat and humidity.

Given current data, temperatures look to be near to above normal through the end of October. That's not set in stone since things can always change, but, that's how it looks now.

Check out the GFS's forecast high for October 1st. 88 degrees!

Here's what the National Weather Service has to say:

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday Night|/...

Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Will the Summer ever end? Can these above normal temps continue
indefinitely? The answer to these questions and more in your
extended discussion below.

Yes, the summer will end and it will get cooler...just not during
this period as summer continues to hang on. The ECMWF continues
the trend on Wednesday into Thursday of a large trough passing
through the Great Lakes. However...little forcing energy appears
to reach Indiana. The associated cold front also appears to get
stretched out and barely pass into the Hoosier State. Thus with a
lack of forcing...confidence for rain is low...but will keep a
mention for now. Surely a soaker is not expected.

In the wake of this weak front...Summer returns. Strong ridging
once again builds across the eastern United States as strong warm
surface high pressure settles across the deep south. The high is
expected to continue to control Indiana weather late this work
week with dry weather and above normal temperatures.

Just a quick word about something.

I don't do politics. This a blog about weather observations in central Indiana. I would like to say that I think the people that work for the National Weather Service and NOAA are professional people. I've met the ones that teach severe weather training for spotters. You should always trust your local National Weather Service office staff and heed their warnings and guidance. They are great people and do an outstanding job. I wish I could be one of them but it's too late for that.

Okay. That's all for now.

The 90's are back!

High temperatures will be at 90 degrees next Tuesday through Thursday. This might be the last chance to enjoy the warm weather if you love it as much as I do.