I'm throwing the towel in.

I hate to say it but winter is pretty much over for south central Indiana. What do I mean by "pretty much"? I've seen it snow in early April so we will likely see very small amounts of snow from now until April. I don't see any big snowstorms on the horizon. Having said that, I am retiring the BOTS! fans hashtag until Halloween of this year. Maybe March might throw us a surprise but we'll never see it coming until very late in the forecast.

There will be some rain tonight and then it will be dry the rest of the week. Thursday night will be the coldest night of the week with lows in the teens. Bundle up if you're going out to The Bishop or standing in line for Pili's Taco Truck near by.


Well, here's the latest from the NWS Indy office:

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 239 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

Model data suggest the cold front will clear the southeast zones by
the mid to late morning hours of Tuesday. Will keep some chance PoPs
in those areas until frontal passage. There are a few ensemble
members that hold the precipitation threat longer into the afternoon
hours of Tuesday over the south, but these are outlier solutions at
this time.

The rest of the short term looks to be dry, as a large strong high
pressure system settles into the area from the northwest.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS lows for
Wednesday night look too cold. Will nudge the guidance lows several
degrees in that period. The remainder of the periods look OK for
now.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 303 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

Strong high pressure will serve as the primary influence for late
week into the first half of the weekend...maintaining dry and
chilly conditions across the region. Brief ridging aloft will
expand into the Ohio Valley as the high shifts away to the east
and return flow develops. Highs will recover into the 40s over the
weekend as a result.

An upper low over the southwest U S Saturday will track E/NE into
the Ohio Valley by MOnday with an accompanying surface wave. As
moisture advects north into the region with the approach and
passage of these features...will introduce precip chances Sunday
and Monday. There may be enough residual cold air remaining at
times to enable snow to mix in with the rain. This system will
usher in a return to a more active weather pattern for the last
week of February and into early March with continued hints in the
7-14 day period of one or two higher impact systems poised to
affect the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes.

&&

Get ready for a wild ride this week.

We'll see a high temperature of 42 degrees on Tuesday. Snow changing to rain on Wednesday evening. A low of 9 degrees Thursday night. Cold Friday and Saturday and then back up to 50 degrees on Sunday. Dress appropriately if you can.

I don't see any big snow storms coming.

From the NWS:

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 351 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

Main focus for the short term is on the dynamic system set to
impact the area Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Precipitation at onset Wednesday morning will likely fall in the
form of snow, with a changeover to rain proceeding northward
through the area as warm air aloft arrives and surface
temperatures rise well into the 30s. This changeover will then
reverse from the northwest Wednesday night as the low pulls away
and cold advection begins. Total snow accumulations of 1 to as
much as 2-3 inches are possible across the northern half, with
highest amounts over the far north - although with the rain this
may be deceiving as much of the snow may melt or turn to wet
slush. Profiles suggest freezing rain or sleet will not be
significant contributors to amounts.

The low track is fairly well clustered in the GFS ensembles for
being 36-48 hours out, but minor low level thermal profile
differences will make a significant different in the precipitation
type outcomes. Stay tuned to forecast updates as this system
approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 251 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

Models in good agreement that surface high pressure will build in
Thursday night and Friday in the wake of an upper trough of low
pressure. This and a dry column will allow for clearing skies and
very cold temperatures late in the week. Blend suggests overnight
lows in the single digits to near 15 degrees Thursday night and
afternoon highs only in the upper teens and upper 20s on Friday.

This will then abruptly change starting Saturday as the surface low
moves to the east and allows for a quick warmup and increased
moisture. The continued southerly flow will interact with waves in
the upper flow and bring chances for precipitation starting Saturday
night. Model soundings and thicknesses support mostly rain by
Sunday afternoon but a mix possible Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

Continued low level warm advection supports above normal
temperatures by Sunday. Areas near and south of Interstate 70
could see 50 degrees plus by Monday.

Woo Hooo #BOTS fans in Atlanta!

It ain't much but it's gotta be fun down there.

#BOTS fans!

It is time to retire "#BOTS" ?

Spring starts on march 19, 2020.  I'm seeing a lot of rain systems showing up in the models. There just isn't a lot of really cold air around this year. If I have to do it, and, I hate to do it, I will retire the bots hashtag sometime after Valentine's Day.

Here's the latest for today and tomorrow.

As it stands for right now,  we will be above freezing all day so there shouldn't be any travel problems today. The temperature will drop to freezing at 4:30AM early Thursday morning. If you have to work tomorrow morning, you should get up early. There might be a light coating of ice by 7:00AM. The good news is that precipitation is expected to be light as drier air tries to work its way in. The freezing rain changes to light snow by 9:00AM.

It might be difficult to see this so here's the link:
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.1666&lon=-86.5215&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

It could be an exciting week for #BOTS fans.

Let's hope the cold air comes crashing in early tomorrow.