What does the future hold?
Someone asked me how the month of August is looking and so that probably means other people would like to know as well. The National Weather Service has published its longe range outlook for August, September and October. The forecast is for slightly above normal temperatures.
Accuweather agrees with this somewhat. They say yes to above normal temperatures in August.
Neutral to maybe slightly above average temperatures in September.
And yes to above normal temperatures in October but hey, it's October so it will still feel great by then anyway.
The flood watch should be canceled but please heed the advice.
We dodged a bullet! We did not get nearly as much rain as predicted however there is another round of heavy rain coming for Wednesday but it will be spotty and hit-or-miss in areas throughout southern Indiana.
A Flood Watch has been issued for Monroe County
Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1049 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022
INZ051>053-060>062-067>070-252300-
/O.CON.KIND.FA.A.0005.220726T0600Z-220726T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vigo-Clay-Owen-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Brazil, Bedford, Gosport, Sullivan, Shoals,
Vincennes, Washington, Farmersburg, Terre Haute, Bloomfield,
Mitchell, Linton, Bloomington, Shelburn, Jasonville, Worthington,
Spencer, Loogootee, and Carlisle
1049 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana, southwest Indiana and
west central Indiana, including the following counties, in south
central Indiana, Lawrence and Monroe. In southwest Indiana,
Daviess, Greene, Knox, Martin and Sullivan. In west central
Indiana, Clay, Owen and Vigo.
* WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall could lead to
flooding, especially across areas that received heavy rain on
Sunday night.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
Good news and bad news for upcoming weather.
The good news is that today is the last 90+ degree day for a while. All of next week will be much cooler than it has been this week.
The bad news is that we might get 1.5 inches of rain all at once between Tuesday and Thursday. After that, the heat returns by August 5th. Some of the heat out west looks extremely dangerous. If you have family in Kansas or Oklahoma, you should check on them now and prepare them for what is coming. There will likely be some loss of life if theses temperature verify and this turns out to be true.
High temperatures of 118 degrees for August 8th?
It's raining in Bloomington! I want my Nobel Prize!
This was not supposed to happen. I hope you all are enjoying it in the local area.
Based on the weather surface analysis maps, I'm going to give this incident a new name. I'm calling it:
"Subtropical cold damming transference." Maybe I'll get a Nobel Prize in Science for this but probably not.
Check out this new stripper!
I bet that got your attention! There was a 0% chance of rain for southern Indiana and points south of I-70 for today. The National Weather Service said light rain chances would be expected in the northern part of the state.
Now check out this small stripe of a line moving southeast towards Bloomington.
Hurry, look outside!
It's raining in Bloomington!
We're under a heat advisory until 9:00pm. A high of 96 degrees today. Stay hydrated. After that, temperatures slowly cool off with a high of 81 and a low of 59 on Saturday. Today through Friday are our best chances for rain. Here's what the NWS has to say:
.Forecast Update... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 Forecast concerns today will be (1) spatial extent of dangerous heat and any necessary adjustments to the Heat Advisory, (2) coverage of thunderstorms late this morning into the afternoon, (3) potential for severe storms. Adjustments late this morning were mainly based on observational trends to align the highest precipitation probabilities with initial activity seen on radar from near Sheridan to Lebanon to Greencastle. This is occurring along a subtle differential mixing boundary as a very moist PBL is heated. As further heating ahead of this convection and weak southwest-northeast oriented boundary occurs across the rest of central Indiana occurs, coverage is likely to increase. Further south, subtle convergence boundaries are inferred in the observations and initial growth of patches of cumulus probably indicates enhanced areas of PBL moisture and signal where at least isolated to scattered convection may form by midday as convective temperatures are reached. Flow is weak and organized/sustained cells are unlikely. Instability is expected to be moderate to strong this afternoon and could support intense updrafts which upon collapse could result in damaging winds and perhaps some hail (mostly sub-severe size). The best chance of slightly more organized storms could come from initial development now seen in central Illinois, if a robust enough cold pool can form. If a relatively concentrated cluster/MCS evolves it would track east-southeast generally south of roughly I- 70 through the afternoon. Heat is the other concern. Clouds and convection should limit the northward extend of the more dangerous heat (i.e., 105F heat index values). The best chance of dangerous heat will be midday into early afternoon, generally south of a Terre Haute to Franklin to Rushville line. Once thunderstorm coverage increases and cold pools develop, the dangerous heat index values will diminish at least locally. We will keep the current configuration of the Heat Advisory for now. && .Short Term...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 Highlights: - Hot and Humid; Heat index values above 100 - Periodic chances for thunderstorms, some could be severe Today... Central Indiana will remain to the NE of a stagnant mid level high for the entirety of the short term. This will help keep a very warm and humid airmass over the region. In the upper levels, a modest jet is positioned just to the north, aiding in cyclogenesis along the periphery of the mid level high. These waves are the main culprit of continuous MCSs observed across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this week, and will continue to create chances for thunderstorms today through tomorrow. Most of central Indiana has unfortunately remained mostly dry through the early part of this week, reinforcing the ongoing drought conditions. This should change through the end of short term as an elongated boundary finally reaches central Indiana this morning, providing a source of lift for thunderstorms to develop. This boundary looks to slowly progress through beginning this morning over northern central Indiana. Convective temperatures likely wont be reached until around noon today, placing convective initiation along the primary boundary somewhere around the I-70 corridor. Convective development will be possible elsewhere, as weak remnant outflow boundaries from prior day convection will be lingering over and near the outlying region. Temperatures should vary over the state due to where and when convection occurs. Current consensus points towards a return of upper 90s over SW central Indiana, with low to mid 90s elsewhere. Dewpoints will be high yet again across the state ranging from the mid to low 70s. For these reasons, a heat advisory has been kept over SW central Indiana this afternoon and evening, where heat index values are expected to exceed 105. With wishes of precipitation comes some risk as severe wind gusts and large hail as well as isolated flooding will be possible within thunderstorms late this morning into the afternoon and evening. The main culprit for severe weather potential is the highly unstable environment. Lapse rates near 7 C/km in the mixed layer with mid 70 dew points will lead to early morning CAPE greater than 2000 J/kg. As surface temps warm, instability will rise topping out between 3000-4000 this afternoon. Shear will be weak, but some low level veering and broad 30-40 kt mid level flow shouldn`t hinder severe potential too much. Current forecast soundings indicate around 30kts of effective bulk shear available for afternoon thunderstorms. Also of note is high moisture contentin the lowest 2km layer is currently, which will lead to intense rain rates within thunderstorms. Surrounding offices to the N/E have decided to issue a Flood Watch for this morning into the afternoon. For now, central Indiana will not be under a flood watch due to a combination of low confidence in where CI will be located this afternoon and the fact that central Indiana has been abnormally dry for nearly a month. More consideration will be had later this morning as confidence grows in where the boundary will stall over central Indiana. Tonight and Tomorrow... Yet another MCS may track southeast along the instability axis tonight, with continued caveats that prior day convection will play a large role in if the environment will be conducive to convection. The track for this MCS is still uncertain, but current thoughts are for this system to progress ESE over north central to east central Indiana. Any rain that falls this morning/afternoon will further exacerbate any concern for flooding, and will be looked at closely during the 4PM update. In general temperatures will be warm with high humidity again tomorrow. This will once again lead to instability over the area, but with not obvious source of lift, confidence in where if any convection will occur is low. && .Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 - Storm chances on Friday - Dry and cooler summer weather this weekend - Light shower/storm chances return by Tuesday Thursday Night through Friday Night... The persistent NW flow aloft is suggested to continue on Thursday night and Friday as strong ridging remains in place over the western plains. A short wave within this flow is expected to push across northern Indiana on Friday. Given our warm and humid air mass in place across Central Indiana, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be expected. Furthermore, models suggest a surface warm front will be pushed south across Central Indiana as strong high pressure over the Great Lakes builds southward. Forecast soundings during this time show a saturated column with continued high pwats over 2.00 inches. Drying and subsidence within the column looks to arrive late Friday Night, in the wake of the front. Thus will continue high pop chances, especially on Friday and Friday Night as the front passes. Saturday Through Monday... Models suggest continued NW flow aloft with a weak ridge axis within the flow aloft passing across Central Indiana on Sunday. The continued persistent NW flow will be a result of strong high pressure aloft over the American SW with ridging stretching north through the Rockies. Things will be different this time within the lower levels. A strong and elongated area of high pressure is expected to settle across the Great Lakes. As the previous cold front is expected to progress to the deep south by Sunday, a E-NE surface flow from the high will be present across Central Indiana, bringing dry and cooler continental flow to our state. Forecast soundings show a very dry column in place through Monday with unreachable convective temperatures. Thus will aim for just partly cloudy skies during this time with gradually warming temperatures due to the high progressing east and the eventual start of warmer return southerly flow. Tuesday... Within the NW flow on Tuesday, models show a short wave pushing out of the upper midwest and across the Great Lakes. Best forcing at this point looks to remain well north of Central Indiana. However, warmer and more humid air will be in place across our area due to the high well to the east at this point and southerly gulf flow in place. Forecast soundings continue to show a dry column on Tuesday, but convective temps in the lower 90s are suggested which may be reached. Thus some chc pops on Tuesday seems warranted given these features in play.
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