Historic flooding and extreme weather headed to Indiana tomorrow on Wednesday 4/2/2025

If you haven't tuned in to see the latest weather report, you should do so immediately! Everything is on the table for Wednesday night. We could see damaging winds, hail, microbursts, tornadoes and unfortunately some counties in Kentucky will see over 12 inches of rain. This is not an April Fool's Day Joke!

See what the National Weather Service is saying so far:

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The threat for severe weather will return on Wednesday as a low
pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes region. Confidence on
how exactly this system will play out is still lacking as models are
showing multiple solutions for storms. The first thing to watch for
is how the early to mid morning storms play out as there is some
potential for those storms limiting the afternoon destabilization
and reintensification in the afternoon to evening storms. The next
uncertainty comes ahead and along the cold front in which the line
of storms may move through as one wider line of storms or as a
couple of subsequent lines. Regardless of the above, there will be
ample warmth and moisture to work with as well as lift, instability,
and shear making all severe hazards possible for central Indiana.
The best guess at timing is still from late afternoon to early
overnight with a brief hail threat during the Wednesday morning
hours. Outside of the storms, gusty winds will also be a concern
throughout the day Wednesday as gusts could potentially reach up to
40-45 mph at times.

Higher confidence comes with the flooding concerns from Wednesday
into the weekend as a boundary sets up in the Ohio Valley region,
keeping a persistent band of training storms in the area. The
boundary will meander some, but is expected to largely center over
the Ohio River, just south of the forecast area. While the main
excessive rainfall concern is for our far southern counties and
areas further to the south, enough moisture and rainfall is
possible through the week to extend the flood watch just north of
I-70 corridor. There is still uncertainty in exact rainfall
amounts but to give an idea, parts of south central Indiana could
see anywhere from 5 to 10 inches of rain while along I-70 could
see amounts of 4 to over 6 inches.

Models indicate that the boundary should finally push off to the
east by Monday allowing for at least a brief break in precipitation
and a likely return to nearer to normal temperatures.

Snow in April again!

 Winter just does not want to give up. Check out this model run for April 6, 2025


That is a nice thumping of heavy wet snow!



The dust storm is here in Indiana

If you've seen the sky and clouds today, you might have wondered about their odd looking color earlier. I think it's due to the dust storms. I've never experienced this before. 



March in Indiana = Tornadoes tonight and snow tomorrow!

The good news is that tomorrow is the first day of Spring. Although winter will be officially over, it wont feel like it.









Severe storms and tornadoes are possible tonight!

I'm issuing a Burl Alert for Saturday morning between 3:00AM and 7:00AM for severe storms and possibly a tornado. That's going to be the most dangerous time of the overnight hours according to hi-res data and the rotation tracking software. The National Weather Service has not issued a Tornado Watch yet but if they do, that is an additional reason to be alert. 












It's sectionals week! And it's snowing!

These two go hand-in-hand in Indiana. It never seems to fail.

The powerful storm is now centered over Chicago and snow is wrapping around the backside of it. 


I recorded a low pressure of 993 millibars at my apartment this morning.


It looks like this pattern will repeat between March 15-17 so more snow is on the way. For the last two or three years it has snowed into April. I think we could seen the same this year. Check out these temperature profiles for April 4 and 5 of 2025:











You think winter is done? Think again!

The weather will gradually warm up over the next few days but winter will continue to fight back. The Hudson Bay Low and the Polar Vortex do not want to give up. It even fooled me! My gut intuition was to say that once we get to March 1st, we are definitely done with single digits but I don't know after looking this March 7 forecast. That's going to be close.



And that is 12Z data. If 12Z = 4 or 5pm Eastern time then ouch!





Surprise snowstorm for Bloomington Indiana!

It's only two days late right? Today is February 16 and we almost always get snow on Valentine's Day. So much for the "Snow Hole".

As you might have already figured out, the Polar Vortex is back to visit us. There are multiple chances for snow this week. I haven't seen a winter like this since back in 2012. It also reminds me of the 1990's.

Wednesday is going to be intersting so keep an eye for 2/19/2025.

Also, Monroe County Indiana is under a Travel Watch so resist the urge to go to Taco Bell.

If you haven't signed up for the Monroe County Alerts, you should do so.  You can do that by following the instructions here:

The Bloomington Indiana snow hole 2025!

I'm sure you all have seen the weather apps on your phone by now, but don't trust those. There are 3 winter storms approaching and can you believe our luck? We are going to miss out on all three. One will go to our north. The next will go to our south and the third one will give us rain. Why do we have such bad luck?



Sunday and Monday will be the last nice days for a while.

So get out and enjoy them before winter returns with a vengeance. Yes, winter is going to make a comeback but beware of the extremist posts on social media again. Are we getting snow next week? Yes! Is it going to be 20+ inches? NO! Please don't fall for the social media hype like this:


Let's trust the weather professionals at the National Weather Service for as long as we can and let's hope they don't get completely cut from the federal budget.

Check out this one: "Gas up the snowblowers"





Freezing rain and thunderstorms in Indianapolis right now. Is this true?

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
912 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

INZ028-035>037-043>047-054-055-065-060430-
Warren-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Morgan-Johnson-Decatur-
Including the cities of Williamsport, West Lebanon, Attica,
Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville,
Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale,
Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis,
Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, and Greensburg
912 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

...PATCHY FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL...

Patchy freezing rain will continue for parts of central Indiana
this evening. Temperatures will warm slowly from southwest to
northeast, ending the freezing rain threat by around midnight.

Slick spots are possible mainly on untreated and elevated
surfaces.

In addition, isolated thunderstorms will continue to move quickly
northeast across the area this evening. Some of the storms will
contain small hail.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
318 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

INZ028-035>037-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072-062030-
Warren-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-Hendricks-
Marion-Hancock-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-
Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-
Jackson-Jennings-
318 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Light freezing rain is possible early tonight with minor ice
accumulations possible on elevated surfaces. Best chance of freezing
rain is north of a line from Terre Haute to Bloomington to Columbus.

A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Wednesday Night. Severe
storms are not expected, but lightning is a threat with any
thunderstorm.

Punxsutawney Phil says six more weeks of winter and he is right!

Of course there is always a 50/50 chance that he will be right but winter is definitely not over. I hope you enjoyed the sunny 65 degree day yesterday. The Polar Vortex is set to return after Valentine's Day. More cold and snow are on the way.
#BOTS!

Winter is coming back! Cold and snow to return in week two of February 2025,

The data says the polar vortex is coming back during the second week of February. You can count on it happening after Valentine's Day. 



Who's ready for single digit temperatures in March?

It will likely get colder than what it is now but not this cold.



February is going to be a wild ride!

The pattern that is setting up for February is going to throw everything at us and it all starts next week. We could see rain, snow, ice, thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes in February as the weather keeps oscillating between warm and cold. Indiana will be right on the rain-snow line with a the potential for ice but anything is possible next week. The best advice I can give you right now is: Do not trust the weather app on your phone for next week!

Right now, here is what the pattern looks like: (excuse the ugly drawings)


There's data showing another sudden stratospheric warming event after February 10th. If that happens, the polar vortex will be on the move again but where will it go? We don't know yet.




 

Did you know that we are not halfway through winter yet?

Monday, February 3 marks the halfway point for our winter season. That is why Groundhog Day is on Sunday February 2.

Enjoy the warmth while it lasts. Our warm spell should last 10 to 15 days. We usually get some snow on Valentine's Day and that could be the case this year. 

Here is a not-so-gentle reminder that winter is not over. Check out this temperature profile for February 15:



There's not a lot of snow showing up in the 10 day outlook but there is some ice.








Blizzard Warning: For Louisiana!

 




Blizzard Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
415 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

.A coastal low moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico is
producing periods of visibility reducing heavy snow and wind gusts
in excess of 35 MPH in bands moving onshore. These bands will
continue to move in and out of the warned area through the morning
creating hazardous conditions to anyone exposed outdoors for
extended periods of time.

LAZ044-073-074-141>143-152-241>243-252-TXZ515-516-615-616-211800-
/O.UPG.KLCH.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250122T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.BZ.W.0002.250121T1015Z-250121T1800Z/
Lafayette-West Cameron-East Cameron-Northern Calcasieu-Northern
Jefferson Davis-Northern Acadia-Upper Vermilion-Southern
Calcasieu-Southern Jefferson Davis-Southern Acadia-Lower
Vermilion-Upper Jefferson-Northern Orange-Lower Jefferson-
Southern Orange-
Including the cities of Welsh, Jennings, Carlyss, Morse,
Klondike, De Quincy, Iota, Lafayette, Fenton, Port Arthur, Sea
Rim State Park, Sulphur, Church Point, Hackberry, Cameron,
Nederland, Abbeville, Grand Lake, Beaumont, Rutherford Beach,
Forked Island, Westlake, Johnson Bayou, Sabine Pass, Orange,
Hathaway, Vidor, Topsy, Intracoastal City, Elton, Maurice,
Gueydan, Bell City, Meaux, Kaplan, Moss Bluff, Lake Arthur,
Hayes, Vinton, Rayne, Iowa, Creole, Mauriceville, China, Grand
Chenier, Bridge City, Branch, Crowley, and Lake Charles
415 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations between
  2 and 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Louisiana and
  southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
  blowing snow. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with
your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel
extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a
winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay in your
vehicle.


The polar vortex and arctic air will arrive tonight and stay for 48 hours but the good news is...

Well, the bad news is that the high temperatures will struggle to reach 10 degrees on Monday and Tuesday.
The good news is that the low temperatures will be right at 0 to 1 above zero. Typically when high temperatures are at 10 degrees, it means that the low temperature would be near -10 but that is not the case. By Wednesday we are back to normal.

I don't see any big snowstorms on the horizon. Perhaps we might see a small snowstorm between the 26th and the 29th.


I'm about to have a temper-ature-tantrum!

What is a temperature tantrum?
It's when you get mad and go off on someone because temperature it too damn cold outside.

We all know it's going to be cold for the three days but...

The low temperatures are not nearly has bad as what we've already seen. What makes this different is the windchill factor. 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
932 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-062>065-072-182245-
/O.CON.KIND.EC.A.0001.250120T0600Z-250120T1800Z/
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-
Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-
Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Jennings-
Including the cities of Clinton, Spencer, Crawfordsville,
Indianapolis, Fishers, Delphi, Lafayette, Martinsville, Parker
City, Tipton, Plainfield, North Vernon, Attica, Greenfield,
Fairview Park, Montezuma, Columbus, Williamsport, Greensburg,
Frankfort, Greencastle, Covington, West Lafayette, Carmel,
Franklin, Flora, Union City, Veedersburg, Gosport, Noblesville,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Mooresville, Brazil, Rosedale, Lebanon,
West Lebanon, New Castle, Greenwood, Terre Haute, Farmland,
Bloomington, Zionsville, Winchester, Rockville, Danville, Muncie,
Brownsburg, Nashville, Anderson, and Kokomo
932 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central, south
  central, southeast, and west central Indiana.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.
  Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is
  exposed to these temperatures.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very cold wind chills between 10 and 20 below
  zero are also possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The National Weather Service Experimental Snow Data for Indiana.

A new cool page on the NWS website.


My interpretation of the polar vortex this year.

There's a constant low pressure over the Hudson Bay that has been there for a long time. There's a blocking pattern off the coast of the southeastern US. There's also blocking pattern off the coast of the northwestern US. Add in sudden stratospheric warming in the north pole and this is what we get:


The rule of thumb is: If it's cold in Alaska, it's gonna be warm in Indiana. If it's warn in Alaska, it's gonna be cold in Indiana.


An excellent blog post by Amy Butler and Laura Ciastro on this season's polar vortex.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming is a complex topic. If you are interested in the details, you can read the full blog post here:

Otherwise, here are the most important info-graphics from the post:







Wild temperatures wings coming.

Tuesday night's low will be -2 degrees.

Friday's high temperature will be 43 degrees with rain. Boooo!

Next Tuesday's high will be 10 degrees and the low will be -7 degrees.

Watch out for a big snowstorm during the last week of January, specifically between January 26-29.

The data for February is showing mixed results. Some of the data says warm and some of the data says cold.






I see it on the radar so where is the snow?

The cold dense dry air is evaporating the snow before it hits the ground. Had we not had -2 degrees Thursday morning, it might be snowing now. Nonetheless, that is why you se a full radar screen and no snow outside your window. So all those 4-6 inch totals you saw yesterday are not going to happen. Expect 2-3 inches. 





Southern states will be closed until further notice.

 


Sometimes the best cure for ice is more snow.

Compacted snow + snowmelt = Ice

The snow should stick around for a while because it will be cold for a long time. One problem that we have is the very gradual and slow snowmelt that occurs when the sun is out and then later on, that water refreezes overnight and turns into black ice. If temperatures are going to stay cold then more snow is better because it creates traction on top of the ice and it keeps people from falling and crashing like saw a Kroger this evening. Look at this sheet of ice in the parking lot:





1-5-25 Snowstorm pictures from Bloomington Indiana.

These pictures are from the Sunday (1/5) to Monday (1/6) snowstorm event in Bloomington Indiana.