Burl's Weather Page: 2025

Two days of heat left.

Today and tomorrow will be hot and then it's all down hill from Wednesday onwards.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...

The greatest and only expected rain chances are early in the period
when an upper wave and cold front move through the region.
Southwesterly surface flow ahead of the system will help to pull
gulf moisture northward. This combined with increasing dynamics
favors scattered to numerous thunderstorms on Tuesday. The greatest
coverage is expected during peak heating when instability is
strongest. Weak deep-layer shear should mostly limit the threat for
severe, but an isolated strong to severe wind gust cannot be ruled
out given strong instability and steep low-level lapse rates.

Deeper moisture and forcing is expected to shift south on Wednesday
resulting in rain chances diminishing. However, daytime heating atop
lingering PBL moisture could promote isolated to widely scattered
convection. Look for hot and humid conditions to persist Tuesday
before temperatures slightly cool off into the 80s Wednesday.

Thursday onward...

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected late this week through
early next week. Guidance depicts primarily N/NW flow with upper
ridging and surface high pressure providing dry weather through
Friday. An upper wave is then expected to push a dry cold front
through the region late Friday into Saturday. Precipitation is
unlikely due to marginal moisture ahead of the system though it
will bring a noticeable cooldown.

Expect highs generally in the 80s late this week with lower
dewpoints. A more substantial cooldown should occur behind the
aforementioned dry cold front. Most guidance suggest highs will fall
into the upper 70s on Sunday for portions of the area while
widespread highs in the 70s are possible by Monday. Dewpoints are
also likely to drop substantially as drier air advects into the
area, making it feel more like early fall.

What is going on with the weather in Indiana?

Welp, last week's weather forecast predicted that we would be done with the 90+ degree heat. This week's high temperatures have been revised upwards each day. It's gone from 87 to 88 to 89 to 90. The NWS now says today's high is 91.

It looks like high temperatures will remain in the 88-92 range for the next two weeks. Here is what the National Weather Service is saying:

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

The upper low tracking across the Canadian prairies will be blocked
from making it much further east than the northern Plains by strong
ridging over the eastern part of the country. The ridging will move
little into early next week maintaining a very warm and humid
airmass across the Ohio Valley with little to no threat for
convection. As the week progresses though...the upper level flow
will transition to more of a quasi-zonal regime which will enable
weak waves aloft to drop further south into the region and introduce
a better chance for scattered convection beginning Tuesday and
continuing for much of the rest of next week.

Saturday through Monday Night

Ridging aloft and at the surface will remain the primary features
influencing the weather across the Ohio Valley through the
weekend...and keeping the upper low and subsequent trough locked in
place across the northern and central Plains. This will leave a
typical humid midsummer airmass across central Indiana with daily
highs/lows within a few degrees either side of 90 and 70 degrees
respectively. The heating will breed moderate instability levels
each day through Monday despite the lingering mid level cap. Similar
to today...there will be a nonzero convective threat but it will be
difficult to see much more than a few stray showers or storms
considering the mitigating factors mentioned above. Will continue
with a dry forecast Saturday and Sunday but as the cap weakens
slightly by Monday...low chance pops for isolated storms will be
introduced.

One item to keep an eye on though will be the potential development
of a convective cluster over the upper Midwest on Saturday that
could drop into northern Illinois by the evening. The bulk of the
convection would likely migrate south or even southwest into
Saturday night following the deeper instability and riding along the
nose of the low level jet. While this would not directly impact the
forecast area...there could be a remnant outflow from the complex
that makes it this far southeast on Sunday to give a bit of an
assist to any isolated convective development for the afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday

The flattening of the upper level flow will enable the perturbations
aloft to make a further south track into the region and bring a
daily threat for isolated to scattered convection each day. The main
convective risks through the period will again be on heavy rainfall
and localized flooding as a lack of substantial shear will ensure
slow movement to storms that will pulse up and down in intensity.
There is always the potential for a cell to strengthen enough
briefly to produce localized downbursts as the cores collapse but
that is likely to remain a secondary concern through late next week.

The airmass will remain warm...muggy and stagnant through much of
next week with highs in the mid and upper 80s and dewpoints likely
creeping up a bit into the lower 70s. There are growing signals that
this may continue right through next weekend and potentially even
beyond with cooler and drier air being held well north of the region.

Modeling:

The EURO says 90 degree hear though 8/23. That's as far as it can see.

The GFS says 88-91 degrees through 8/21 and a slight cool down to 84 degrees.

The AI says 88-93 degrees through 8/21 and then drastic cool down to 79 degrees.

The CFS says upper 80's trough 8/19 with fall arriving on 9/5

Perhaps we might get some relief in September. The first weeks of September is usually cooler than average.

Accuweather has very long-range monthly forecasts up to November. Here is a snapshot of September.

Enjoy today! 90 degree weather comes in for the weekend.

It's gonna be hot next week! We are lucky that we've had a lot of rain. Had we had a drought, the high temperature would be worse, like closer to 100 degrees everyday next week. Remember to stay hydrated with water and find your nearest cooling station.

There was a lot of wind damage from storms last night in Bloomington Indiana

It's smoky and hazy outside today.

Smoke from the Canadian wildfires are here again.

Small storms in Bloomington Indiana today.

Here are some good sites about historical data on tornadoes in Indiana.

People are asking how often this occurs so here is what I found:

NOAA Storm Events Database

Violent Tornadoes in Indiana

Tornado Tracks 1950 - 2024

It's official! EF-2 Tornado hit Bloomington, Indiana

https://www.msn.com/en-us/public-safety-and-emergencies/natural-disasters/nws-tornado-that-went-through-bloomington-indiana-was-an-ef-2/ar-AA1EYojA

A very destructive night of severe storms and tornadoes in Indiana on Friday, 5-15-2025

Wow. Just WOW! I've never ever seen anything like this. This is the first time I've ever heard of a PDS warning in the Indiana. A PDS warning means / stands for "Particularly Dangerous Situation. There were several of those.

The radar lit up at 6:30pm and would not let up until 9:30pm. In all likelihood, a tornado touched down on the south side of Bloomington Indiana in the Clear Creek area just close to I-69. I saw the hook signature on my weather radar app that is called "WeatherWise". See it here:

WeatherWise is the best free weather app out there. Ryan Hall uses it and promotes it also.

The second tornado hit the northern part of the county near Ellettsville. See it here:

Pictures from others and from around town: How to protect your car from 4 inch hail

Local people from the south side posted on Reddit.

Me at the Runcible Spoon.

And do you remember that eerie part where the skies cleared up and the sun came out at exactly 7:35pm and people thought it was all over; remember that?

A friend of mine sent me these from Indianapolis. Thanks MB!

Tornado outbreak happening in Missouri right now.

Softball sized hail is falling there.

Also, Ryan Hall is broadcasting live right now. Hopefully he will stick around and cover the line of storms as it approaches Indiana.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTkFSVhoF4g

National Weather Service is warning of damaging winds tonight.

The NWS is warning of damaging winds tonight.

The entire system arrives at about 6pm and leaves at 1am. The worst part of it will be between 8pm and 9pm.

Students have moved out and storms are moving in!

There's a line for storms moving in from Illinois tonight. The line started out strong but it appears to be weakening. Tornado Watches are posted from Terre Haute northwards until 10:00pm so Bloomington might be okay for tonight. But take a look at this image from 8:30PM:

And look at it now at 9:45PM:

The "cap" is holding so far.

Weather Radios are back on in Indiana

This is old news from Wednesday, 4-30-25

The most dangerous job in Bloomington Indiana is this one

As you all are aware of by now, Bloomington survived last night's tornado outbreak but other areas of Indiana were not so lucky. And now we have to deal with flooding until Sunday. But I have something interesting that I want to share with you all.

In the late afternoon as the winds were picking up and reaching 50+ MPH, there was crane operator downtown doing his own thing. Would you do this job during a 'High Wind Watch' and a 'Tornado Watch'?

Here is the picture:

Here is the video:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-Y7K6RKG4m95wL58GRJ1RvpDThngFssq/view?usp=sharing

Historic flooding and extreme weather headed to Indiana tomorrow on Wednesday 4/2/2025

If you haven't tuned in to see the latest weather report, you should do so immediately! Everything is on the table for Wednesday night. We could see damaging winds, hail, microbursts, tornadoes and unfortunately some counties in Kentucky will see over 12 inches of rain. This is not an April Fool's Day Joke!

See what the National Weather Service is saying so far:

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The threat for severe weather will return on Wednesday as a low
pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes region. Confidence on
how exactly this system will play out is still lacking as models are
showing multiple solutions for storms. The first thing to watch for
is how the early to mid morning storms play out as there is some
potential for those storms limiting the afternoon destabilization
and reintensification in the afternoon to evening storms. The next
uncertainty comes ahead and along the cold front in which the line
of storms may move through as one wider line of storms or as a
couple of subsequent lines. Regardless of the above, there will be
ample warmth and moisture to work with as well as lift, instability,
and shear making all severe hazards possible for central Indiana.
The best guess at timing is still from late afternoon to early
overnight with a brief hail threat during the Wednesday morning
hours. Outside of the storms, gusty winds will also be a concern
throughout the day Wednesday as gusts could potentially reach up to
40-45 mph at times.

Higher confidence comes with the flooding concerns from Wednesday
into the weekend as a boundary sets up in the Ohio Valley region,
keeping a persistent band of training storms in the area. The
boundary will meander some, but is expected to largely center over
the Ohio River, just south of the forecast area. While the main
excessive rainfall concern is for our far southern counties and
areas further to the south, enough moisture and rainfall is
possible through the week to extend the flood watch just north of
I-70 corridor. There is still uncertainty in exact rainfall
amounts but to give an idea, parts of south central Indiana could
see anywhere from 5 to 10 inches of rain while along I-70 could
see amounts of 4 to over 6 inches.

Models indicate that the boundary should finally push off to the
east by Monday allowing for at least a brief break in precipitation
and a likely return to nearer to normal temperatures.