Next up: The weather models have been showing a lot of interesting things. Here are a few examples:
Near 90 degree heat again for October 1.
A pattern-changing cold front between October 9 and 14.
And snow flurries showing up for October 20.
The weather computer models are showing a lot of wild stuff or Indiana.
The weather is beautiful right now. Enjoy it while you can. Rain returns tonight after 8:00pm and it should last through the early morning hours. There might be a few Flood Watches posted to our south.
Summer's last stand is now through next week.
If you haven't heard yet, the 90 degree heat will be back next week. This will be summer's last stand. You can expect it to be hot and dry for the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 80's and a few 90's next week. After that, fall temperatures are here to stay.
Has anyone noticed that the leaves start changing colors in late August? There are some spectacular colors out there already!
Frost by September 22?
Fall is on the way!
Two days of heat left.
Today and tomorrow will be hot and then it's all down hill from Wednesday onwards.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Tuesday and Wednesday... The greatest and only expected rain chances are early in the period when an upper wave and cold front move through the region. Southwesterly surface flow ahead of the system will help to pull gulf moisture northward. This combined with increasing dynamics favors scattered to numerous thunderstorms on Tuesday. The greatest coverage is expected during peak heating when instability is strongest. Weak deep-layer shear should mostly limit the threat for severe, but an isolated strong to severe wind gust cannot be ruled out given strong instability and steep low-level lapse rates. Deeper moisture and forcing is expected to shift south on Wednesday resulting in rain chances diminishing. However, daytime heating atop lingering PBL moisture could promote isolated to widely scattered convection. Look for hot and humid conditions to persist Tuesday before temperatures slightly cool off into the 80s Wednesday. Thursday onward... Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected late this week through early next week. Guidance depicts primarily N/NW flow with upper ridging and surface high pressure providing dry weather through Friday. An upper wave is then expected to push a dry cold front through the region late Friday into Saturday. Precipitation is unlikely due to marginal moisture ahead of the system though it will bring a noticeable cooldown. Expect highs generally in the 80s late this week with lower dewpoints. A more substantial cooldown should occur behind the aforementioned dry cold front. Most guidance suggest highs will fall into the upper 70s on Sunday for portions of the area while widespread highs in the 70s are possible by Monday. Dewpoints are also likely to drop substantially as drier air advects into the area, making it feel more like early fall.
What is going on with the weather in Indiana?
Welp, last week's weather forecast predicted that we would be done with the 90+ degree heat. This week's high temperatures have been revised upwards each day. It's gone from 87 to 88 to 89 to 90. The NWS now says today's high is 91.
It looks like high temperatures will remain in the 88-92 range for the next two weeks. Here is what the National Weather Service is saying:
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 The upper low tracking across the Canadian prairies will be blocked from making it much further east than the northern Plains by strong ridging over the eastern part of the country. The ridging will move little into early next week maintaining a very warm and humid airmass across the Ohio Valley with little to no threat for convection. As the week progresses though...the upper level flow will transition to more of a quasi-zonal regime which will enable weak waves aloft to drop further south into the region and introduce a better chance for scattered convection beginning Tuesday and continuing for much of the rest of next week. Saturday through Monday Night Ridging aloft and at the surface will remain the primary features influencing the weather across the Ohio Valley through the weekend...and keeping the upper low and subsequent trough locked in place across the northern and central Plains. This will leave a typical humid midsummer airmass across central Indiana with daily highs/lows within a few degrees either side of 90 and 70 degrees respectively. The heating will breed moderate instability levels each day through Monday despite the lingering mid level cap. Similar to today...there will be a nonzero convective threat but it will be difficult to see much more than a few stray showers or storms considering the mitigating factors mentioned above. Will continue with a dry forecast Saturday and Sunday but as the cap weakens slightly by Monday...low chance pops for isolated storms will be introduced. One item to keep an eye on though will be the potential development of a convective cluster over the upper Midwest on Saturday that could drop into northern Illinois by the evening. The bulk of the convection would likely migrate south or even southwest into Saturday night following the deeper instability and riding along the nose of the low level jet. While this would not directly impact the forecast area...there could be a remnant outflow from the complex that makes it this far southeast on Sunday to give a bit of an assist to any isolated convective development for the afternoon. Tuesday through Thursday The flattening of the upper level flow will enable the perturbations aloft to make a further south track into the region and bring a daily threat for isolated to scattered convection each day. The main convective risks through the period will again be on heavy rainfall and localized flooding as a lack of substantial shear will ensure slow movement to storms that will pulse up and down in intensity. There is always the potential for a cell to strengthen enough briefly to produce localized downbursts as the cores collapse but that is likely to remain a secondary concern through late next week. The airmass will remain warm...muggy and stagnant through much of next week with highs in the mid and upper 80s and dewpoints likely creeping up a bit into the lower 70s. There are growing signals that this may continue right through next weekend and potentially even beyond with cooler and drier air being held well north of the region.
Modeling:
The EURO says 90 degree hear though 8/23. That's as far as it can see.
The GFS says 88-91 degrees through 8/21 and a slight cool down to 84 degrees.
The AI says 88-93 degrees through 8/21 and then drastic cool down to 79 degrees.
The CFS says upper 80's trough 8/19 with fall arriving on 9/5
Perhaps we might get some relief in September. The first weeks of September is usually cooler than average.
Accuweather has very long-range monthly forecasts up to November. Here is a snapshot of September.
Enjoy today! 90 degree weather comes in for the weekend.
It's gonna be hot next week! We are lucky that we've had a lot of rain. Had we had a drought, the high temperature would be worse, like closer to 100 degrees everyday next week. Remember to stay hydrated with water and find your nearest cooling station.
Here are some good sites about historical data on tornadoes in Indiana.
People are asking how often this occurs so here is what I found:
A very destructive night of severe storms and tornadoes in Indiana on Friday, 5-15-2025
Wow. Just WOW! I've never ever seen anything like this. This is the first time I've ever heard of a PDS warning in the Indiana. A PDS warning means / stands for "Particularly Dangerous Situation. There were several of those.
The radar lit up at 6:30pm and would not let up until 9:30pm. In all likelihood, a tornado touched down on the south side of Bloomington Indiana in the Clear Creek area just close to I-69. I saw the hook signature on my weather radar app that is called "WeatherWise". See it here:
WeatherWise is the best free weather app out there. Ryan Hall uses it and promotes it also.
The second tornado hit the northern part of the county near Ellettsville. See it here:
Pictures from others and from around town: How to protect your car from 4 inch hail
Local people from the south side posted on Reddit.
Me at the Runcible Spoon.
And do you remember that eerie part where the skies cleared up and the sun came out at exactly 7:35pm and people thought it was all over; remember that?
A friend of mine sent me these from Indianapolis. Thanks MB!
Tornado outbreak happening in Missouri right now.
Softball sized hail is falling there.
Also, Ryan Hall is broadcasting live right now. Hopefully he will stick around and cover the line of storms as it approaches Indiana.
National Weather Service is warning of damaging winds tonight.
The NWS is warning of damaging winds tonight.
The entire system arrives at about 6pm and leaves at 1am. The worst part of it will be between 8pm and 9pm.
Students have moved out and storms are moving in!
There's a line for storms moving in from Illinois tonight. The line started out strong but it appears to be weakening. Tornado Watches are posted from Terre Haute northwards until 10:00pm so Bloomington might be okay for tonight. But take a look at this image from 8:30PM:
And look at it now at 9:45PM:
The "cap" is holding so far.
The most dangerous job in Bloomington Indiana is this one
As you all are aware of by now, Bloomington survived last night's tornado outbreak but other areas of Indiana were not so lucky. And now we have to deal with flooding until Sunday. But I have something interesting that I want to share with you all.
In the late afternoon as the winds were picking up and reaching 50+ MPH, there was crane operator downtown doing his own thing. Would you do this job during a 'High Wind Watch' and a 'Tornado Watch'?
Here is the picture:
Here is the video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-Y7K6RKG4m95wL58GRJ1RvpDThngFssq/view?usp=sharing
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