Winter in Indiana!

Here is what the National Weather Service said for our last storm:

The second snowstorm is happening right now and I think the amounts will be the same. I think we will see three inches of snow. The main problem is the bitter cold. Don't forget to let your faucets drip and open your cabinets. 

And just like always in Indiana, by next Thursday it will be 55 degrees with a rain as the Polar Vortex lifts. The pattern will flatten and oscillate between warm and cold until January 5th. After that, the Polar Vortex returns. 

But here is the good news. The PV only visits us for a maximum of 72 hours. I can remember times when it got cold and stayed cold for several weeks; at least that is not happening.

It's going to be a wild weather pattern for Indiana as we approach Christmas Day of 2025!

We're going to get snow tomorrow night, Thursday (10/11) and then again on Saturday (10/13). The Polar Vortex will be here Saturday through Monday. After that it slowly warms up. 

Currently there is a Winter Weather Advisory out for central Indiana for Thursday night. My prediction and /or guess is 1-3 inches just based on hi-res models. The National Weather Service is saying that we could get 2-6 inches. 

The cold polar air will be brutal this weekend. Please be careful going out to watch the IU v. Kentucky basketball game. GO HOOSIERS! Windchills will be worse.

It looks like the pattern will be split during Christmas week. I'm seeing everything from an ice storm to a snow storm to tornadoes and even heavy rain. Check out this bizarre scenario:

Let's hope this doesn't happen. We like snow, not ice right?

Here is the long term discussion from the National Weather Service:

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 312 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Another round of snow is likely on Saturday. An upper level trough,
surging Arctic air, weak low pressure, and an upper level jet will
all combine to provide forcing across central Indiana on Saturday.
Moisture will have not been cleared out from the previous system,
so this forcing will have moisture to work with.

The result will be snow spreading across the area from west to east
Saturday, ending later in the day (potentially into the evening).
Some differences remain in guidance on the amounts and location of
the higher amounts.

At the moment, another 1 to 3 inches of snow look to be a good bet
for a large portion of the area.  Higher amounts are possible,
especially with some frontogenetical forcing in the area potentially
leading to banding. (Blended guidance`s 24 hour snowfall 25th
percentile is around 1 inch with 75th percentile 4-5 inches in
locations with the highest totals).

Arctic high pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday, providing
bitterly cold conditions. Air temperatures will likely be below zero
across portions of the area early Sunday and early Monday. Before
the center of the high moves nearby, winds will make it feel even
colder Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is the potential
for wind chills from -10 to -20, which would require headlines. Will
continue to monitor closely as the location of the deepest snow
cover will have an impact on temperatures.

The high will provide dry weather through Tuesday. As the area gets
on the western side of the high, warm advection will return
temperatures into the 30s for Tuesday and potentially even the 40s
on Wednesday. A system could bring some precipitation by Wednesday,
but it looks to be just rain if temperatures warm as expected.

 

Who wants sunny and 60 degrees for Christmas?

It probably wont happen but this one model interpretation.

Just say NO!

 

Back in the 1990's people just called it a rain-snow mix.

That's what it is for southern Indiana on Saturday. 

Winter Storm Watches are posted up to the Illinois / Indiana border

The weather models have been very unpredictable with this storm. The last 48 hours showed central Indiana getting a rain / snow mix while the main part of the snow went north of Indianapolis. The latest models have trended southwards. Even Louisville Kentucky might see a little snow. I would expect that some kind of an advisory or alert will be posted for our area right as the the turkey is done, or 6:00pm.

Winter Storm Watches are starting to go up in Iowa so what does this mean for Indiana?

The computer models have been all over the place. At this point, if I had to guess, I would say the northern third of Indiana gets a Winter Storm Warning sometime on Friday. The middle third of Indiana gets a Winter Weather Advisory and the southern third of Indiana gets a rain /snow mix. And all rain south of I-64. That's my best guess. Stay tuned...

A wild and complex pattern is emerging after Thanksgiving.

I don't think anyone knows what the weather will be like this coming weekend. If you really want to understand how complicated it is, you can read what the National Weather Service is thinking.
________

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

An active weather pattern continues next week with numerous systems
bringing large temperature swings, rain, and windy conditions to the
state.

Tuesday...

Weak troughing lifts northeastward into the Great Lakes Monday night
while a jet streak overhead and an increasing low and mid level jet
bring moisture northward into the state. The best moisture
convergence is currently expected to remain south of central
Indiana, however, modest isentropic lift within the strengthening
LLJ support widespread rainfall early Tuesday morning with lingering
showers through the day. Mid-level moisture will be minimal
throughout, but strong upper level support and saturation above
500mb could lead to high rain rates at times. Generally, QPF totals
for this event are likely to remain below 1 inch with most areas
below 0.5 inches, highest rainfall amounts likely south of I-70.

Southwesterly flow persists behind this initial system as a much
stronger trough and associated low develop over the Northern Plains
and Upper Great Lakes. With the cold air locked up north behind the
next system and a warmer airmass still overhead, high temperatures in
the mid 50s to low 60s are expected despite clouds and showers.

Wednesday through Friday...

A significant pattern shift arrives the day before Thanksgiving as a
strong trough to the north and associated front usher in an arctic
airmass over the entire region. The front pushes through the state
early Wednesday morning, but the lack of moisture behind the
pressure trough passage earlier on Tuesday will limit rain shower
coverage along the boundary. Despite only isolated to scattered
showers signifying the front, the temperatures disparity along this
frontal axis will be large, with temperatures quickly falling 10-15
degrees within a few hours from the low 50s to upper 30s early
Wednesday morning.

Steepening low level lapse rates as much colder air advects in aloft
along with a strong 30-40 kt low level jet will make for a cold and
windy day. West northwesterly winds 15-25 mph with gusts over 35-40
mph are likely...stronger gusts may be possible. Lower confidence in
the temperature forecast for Wednesday as guidance may not be
handling the set up well as temperatures may not follow a typical
diurnal pattern. High temperatures may be reached early in the day
before the front, with steady or falling temperatures in the 30s
during the afternoon and evening. Wind chill values will likely
remain below freezing all day, dropping into the teens by Wednesday
night. Not too concerned with wintry weather at the moment as enough
dry air should be advecting in, limiting snow showers within the
cyclonic northwest flow pattern; however would not be surprised to
see on and off flurries.

Winter-like temperatures and breezy conditions persist Thanksgiving
and Friday as strong northwesterly flow keeps an arctic airmass
entrenched over the region. While conditions will be fairly dry,
high temperatures may struggle to get above the freezing mark while
wind chill values stay in the teens and 20s.

Next Weekend into Early December...

Confidence is increasing in a significant storm system and strong
baroclinic zone developing next weekend and into the first week of
December, setting the stage for an active period with widespread
precipitation and large temperature swings. Long range guidance has
been consistent in showing an active southwesterly subtropical jet
across the Central and Southern CONUS in response to a sharpening SW
to NE temperature gradient setting up from the Plains to the Great
Lakes. This classic winter-time pattern can bring widespread heavy
rain, snow, and storms to a large portion of the CONUS. While
confidence is low on the specifics and exact evolution of mesoscale
and synoptic scale features, confidence is increasing in this
pattern developing with Central Indiana within or near the main
storm track.

The set up for Saturday is fairly complex as longer range guidance
indicates a weak trough approaching from the northwest within the
northern branch of the jet, while the subtropical jet increases
southwesterly flow aloft through the Ohio Valley. Interactions from
both the northern and southern branches of the jet can result in
favorable set up for snow. Flow becomes southerly going into
Saturday as a surface low tracks across the Midwest into the Great
Lakes with sufficient moisture advection northward with a 30 kt LLJ
overhead. Deeper cold air in place from the previous few days may
take a while to retreat northward, setting the stage for a quasi
overrunning event where warmer moist air overruns a cold, denser
airmass at the surface. While confidence is lower in the finer
details of this set up and the overall evolution and track of
synoptic features, this will be a system to watch as any snow this
time of year can cause major travel impacts. Keeping snow in for the
first half of the day Saturday, transitioning to a rain/snow mix
during the afternoon, then all rain by the evening. This is an
initial forecast and details will likely change and be fine tuned
over the next several days.

The active pattern is expected to persist into the following week
with additional waves of precipitation tracking through the state
and large temperature swings. We will be monitoring this timeframe
closely and updating the forecast accordingly as confidence
increases on timing, track, and impacts.

Rain then storms them snow and then the polar vortex.

There's a lot of rain coming this week. Storms are possible tomorrow. But the big story is that the Polar Vortex is on the move and will be arriving here by the end of next week. Snowstorms are starting to show up again. Something will likely happen between November 28 and December 5.

Enjoy the warmth for now because winter will return after Thanksgiving.

As you might already know it's going to be nice and warm this weekend. The warmth will likely continue into next week as well.  Beyond that, it looks like the polar vortex will start moving out of Siberia and making its way around to America by the last week of November. 

As a general rule, if it's warm in Alaska then it will be cold in Indiana. If it turns cold in Alaska then it will be warm in Indiana. 

There's  some other very nerdy stuff involved like the Bering Sea Rule, the Recurring Rossby Wave Train and then there's Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Anyone can look those up if they are interested but the main point is to look out for the polar vortex to come to Indiana just after Thanksgiving.

Enjoy the Northern Lights if you can see them and post pictures if you have them.

#BOTS! (Bring on the snow)

It's been rather boring in the weather department lately. The same goes for this week with mostly sunny skies, highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's. This week should be perfect for fall foliage so take some pictures and post them.

Before we see any snow, usually there is a severe weather event before the pattern changes to a colder one. That looks like it might happen next week. 

The highly respected European computer model has a line of storms approaching on Friday and Sunday. After that is has snow flurries on Monday.

The American GFS model has the opposite. It has snow this coming Sunday and a tornado outbreak the following Sunday, November 16.

Nonetheless, expect a pattern change next week along with the threat of severe weather. 

A Frost Advisory and a Freeze Watch for Monroe County Indiana.

This is it! This will mark the official end to the growing season.

Melissa could cause trouble by Friday. She should be a full blown hurricane by then but her path is undetermined.

Daylight Saving Time ends on Sunday, November 2.

We might see snow between November 4 and November 11. 

The weather pattern is about to change in Bloomington over the next 48 hours.

If you haven't heard by now, a storm front is approaching our area for tomorrow.  It looks like light rain and drizzle will be possible after 4:00pm while the main event starts after 8:00pm. The National Weather Service says we'll see a high of 81 degrees tomorrow. I find that hard to believe but we'll see. 

Once the front passes, we'll see high temperatures in the 60's starting on Sunday. 

That last week of October looks wild. Some models say cold and others say warm. The most exciting part will be a very large storm producing a bomb cyclogenesis on the last week of October. The GFS has a 973 Low centered over North Dakota. The Euro has a 978 Low centered over Montana. The CFS has a 987 Low over Minnesota. So we know something big is brewing for the last week of October. 

November looks to be colder than average. I predict that we will see our first snowflakes by November 11th. 

Enjoy the Covered Bridge Festival this weekend.

Lo and behold, we had frost last night!

 

No frost tonight for Bloomington, Indiana.

We'll see a temperature around 39 degrees tonight. It has to be 36 degrees to have frost so that means we won't see any.

Some of the counties to our north are under a Frost Advisory. Lucky them!

The National Weather Service has posted historical data on the first frost and freeze for various locations in Indiana. You can find that here:

https://www.weather.gov/ind/frostfreezedate

38 degrees for Thursday night!

How about that? I don't think there will be any widespread frost just yet but if the temperature is adjusted downward by 2 more degrees then we could see some frost. 

Why are temperatures in the mid 80's in October?

It's because most of central Indiana is in a moderate drought. On one had, this keeps the humidity down. On the other hand, it allows the heat to take over.

The good news is that we should have some rain Monday night through Tuesday. That will cool us down a lot. Temperature should be in the 70's from Tuesday onwards next week. Then another cool down comes around October 20.

And who's ready for snow? The longe range computer models have snow showing up between Halloween and November 5th. We have had snow flurries on Halloween before so it's not unheard of.

Also, I am predicting that peak fall colors will occur in Monroe County Indiana on October 27, 2025.

The weather computer models are showing a lot of wild stuff or Indiana.

The weather is beautiful right now. Enjoy it while you can. Rain returns tonight after 8:00pm and it should last through the early morning hours. There might be a few Flood Watches posted to our south.

Next up: The weather models have been showing a lot of interesting things. Here are a few examples:

Near 90 degree heat again for October 1.

A pattern-changing cold front between October 9 and 14.

And snow flurries showing up for October 20.

Summer's last stand is now through next week.

If you haven't heard yet, the 90 degree heat will be back next week. This will be summer's last stand. You can expect it to be hot and dry for the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 80's and a few 90's next week. After that, fall temperatures are here to stay.

Has anyone noticed that the leaves start changing colors in late August? There are some spectacular colors out there already!

Frost by September 22?

Fall is on the way!

Two days of heat left.

 Today and tomorrow will be hot and then it's all down hill from Wednesday onwards. 

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...

The greatest and only expected rain chances are early in the period
when an upper wave and cold front move through the region.
Southwesterly surface flow ahead of the system will help to pull
gulf moisture northward. This combined with increasing dynamics
favors scattered to numerous thunderstorms on Tuesday. The greatest
coverage is expected during peak heating when instability is
strongest. Weak deep-layer shear should mostly limit the threat for
severe, but an isolated strong to severe wind gust cannot be ruled
out given strong instability and steep low-level lapse rates.

Deeper moisture and forcing is expected to shift south on Wednesday
resulting in rain chances diminishing. However, daytime heating atop
lingering PBL moisture could promote isolated to widely scattered
convection. Look for hot and humid conditions to persist Tuesday
before temperatures slightly cool off into the 80s Wednesday.

Thursday onward...

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected late this week through
early next week. Guidance depicts primarily N/NW flow with upper
ridging and surface high pressure providing dry weather through
Friday. An upper wave is then expected to push a dry cold front
through the region late Friday into Saturday. Precipitation is
unlikely due to marginal moisture ahead of the system though it
will bring a noticeable cooldown.

Expect highs generally in the 80s late this week with lower
dewpoints. A more substantial cooldown should occur behind the
aforementioned dry cold front. Most guidance suggest highs will fall
into the upper 70s on Sunday for portions of the area while
widespread highs in the 70s are possible by Monday. Dewpoints are
also likely to drop substantially as drier air advects into the
area, making it feel more like early fall.

What is going on with the weather in Indiana?

Welp, last week's weather forecast predicted that we would be done with the 90+ degree heat. This week's high temperatures have been revised upwards each day. It's gone from 87 to 88 to 89 to 90. The NWS now says today's high is 91. 

It looks like high temperatures will remain in the 88-92 range for the next two weeks. Here is what the National Weather Service is saying:

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

The upper low tracking across the Canadian prairies will be blocked
from making it much further east than the northern Plains by strong
ridging over the eastern part of the country. The ridging will move
little into early next week maintaining a very warm and humid
airmass across the Ohio Valley with little to no threat for
convection. As the week progresses though...the upper level flow
will transition to more of a quasi-zonal regime which will enable
weak waves aloft to drop further south into the region and introduce
a better chance for scattered convection beginning Tuesday and
continuing for much of the rest of next week.

Saturday through Monday Night

Ridging aloft and at the surface will remain the primary features
influencing the weather across the Ohio Valley through the
weekend...and keeping the upper low and subsequent trough locked in
place across the northern and central Plains. This will leave a
typical humid midsummer airmass across central Indiana with daily
highs/lows within a few degrees either side of 90 and 70 degrees
respectively. The heating will breed moderate instability levels
each day through Monday despite the lingering mid level cap. Similar
to today...there will be a nonzero convective threat but it will be
difficult to see much more than a few stray showers or storms
considering the mitigating factors mentioned above. Will continue
with a dry forecast Saturday and Sunday but as the cap weakens
slightly by Monday...low chance pops for isolated storms will be
introduced.

One item to keep an eye on though will be the potential development
of a convective cluster over the upper Midwest on Saturday that
could drop into northern Illinois by the evening. The bulk of the
convection would likely migrate south or even southwest into
Saturday night following the deeper instability and riding along the
nose of the low level jet. While this would not directly impact the
forecast area...there could be a remnant outflow from the complex
that makes it this far southeast on Sunday to give a bit of an
assist to any isolated convective development for the afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday

The flattening of the upper level flow will enable the perturbations
aloft to make a further south track into the region and bring a
daily threat for isolated to scattered convection each day. The main
convective risks through the period will again be on heavy rainfall
and localized flooding as a lack of substantial shear will ensure
slow movement to storms that will pulse up and down in intensity.
There is always the potential for a cell to strengthen enough
briefly to produce localized downbursts as the cores collapse but
that is likely to remain a secondary concern through late next week.

The airmass will remain warm...muggy and stagnant through much of
next week with highs in the mid and upper 80s and dewpoints likely
creeping up a bit into the lower 70s. There are growing signals that
this may continue right through next weekend and potentially even
beyond with cooler and drier air being held well north of the region.

Modeling:

The EURO says 90 degree hear though 8/23. That's as far as it can see.

The GFS says 88-91 degrees through 8/21 and a slight cool down to 84 degrees.

The AI says 88-93 degrees through 8/21 and then drastic cool down to 79 degrees.

The CFS says upper 80's trough 8/19 with fall arriving on 9/5

Perhaps we might get some relief in September. The first weeks of September is usually cooler than average.

Accuweather has very long-range monthly forecasts up to November. Here is a snapshot of September. 

Enjoy today! 90 degree weather comes in for the weekend.

It's gonna be hot next week! We are lucky that we've had a lot of rain. Had we had a drought, the high temperature would be worse, like closer to 100 degrees everyday next week. Remember to stay hydrated with water and find your nearest cooling station. 

There was a lot of wind damage from storms last night in Bloomington Indiana

 

It's smoky and hazy outside today.

Smoke from the Canadian wildfires are here again.

Small storms in Bloomington Indiana today.

 

Here are some good sites about historical data on tornadoes in Indiana.

People are asking how often this occurs so here is what I found:

NOAA Storm Events Database

Violent Tornadoes in Indiana

Tornado Tracks 1950 - 2024

It's official! EF-2 Tornado hit Bloomington, Indiana

https://www.msn.com/en-us/public-safety-and-emergencies/natural-disasters/nws-tornado-that-went-through-bloomington-indiana-was-an-ef-2/ar-AA1EYojA

A very destructive night of severe storms and tornadoes in Indiana on Friday, 5-15-2025

Wow. Just WOW! I've never ever seen anything like this. This is the first time I've ever heard of a PDS warning in the Indiana. A PDS warning means / stands for "Particularly Dangerous Situation. There were several of those. 

The radar lit up at 6:30pm and would not let up until 9:30pm. In all likelihood, a tornado touched down on the south side of Bloomington Indiana in the Clear Creek area just close to I-69. I saw the hook signature on my weather radar app that is called "WeatherWise". See it here:

WeatherWise is the best free weather app out there. Ryan Hall uses it and promotes it also.

The second tornado hit the northern part of the county near Ellettsville. See it here:

Pictures from others and from around town: How to protect your car from 4 inch hail

Local people from the south side posted on Reddit. 

Me at the Runcible Spoon.

And do you remember that eerie part where the skies cleared up and the sun came out at exactly 7:35pm and people thought it was all over; remember that?

A friend of mine sent me these from Indianapolis. Thanks MB!