Tornado Warning
INC013-055-093-105-051900-
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.W.0027.171105T1819Z-171105T1900Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
119 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017
The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Southern Monroe County in south central Indiana...
Southwestern Brown County in south central Indiana...
Northern Lawrence County in south central Indiana...
Southeastern Greene County in southwestern Indiana...
* Until 200 PM EST
* At 119 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 12 miles northwest of Bedford, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Avoca around 125 PM EST.
Oolitic and Harrodsburg around 130 PM EST.
Fairfax State Recreation Area and Smithville around 135 PM EST.
Monroe Reservoir and Bartlettsville around 140 PM EST.
Heltonville around 145 PM EST.
Charles Deam Wilderness and Woodville Hills around 150 PM EST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
&&
LAT...LON 3890 8668 3890 8673 3905 8677 3919 8628
3905 8628 3905 8632 3899 8632 3899 8628
3892 8628 3888 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 256DEG 28KT 3899 8665
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN
Stuck at the Monroe County Public Library @1:32PM due to Tornado Warning.
Great time to test the new AccuWeather Iphone Weather App.
It predicts hail to start at exactly 1:33pm today. Oh well, be safe.
Update: @1:58pm, there were reports of golf ball sized hail!
Update: @1:58pm, there were reports of golf ball sized hail!
@12:22pm Wind gust picking up.
Given the likelihood of strong storms, damaging winds and the possibility of tornadoes, I would recommend taking this down.
I hope it does not topple over.
I hope it does not topple over.
Tornado Watch is now in effect until 7:00pm for central Indiana, BOTLO!
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017 TORNADO WATCH 511 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS INC001-005-009-011-013-015-021-023-027-029-031-035-041-045-047- 053-055-057-059-063-065-067-071-075-079-081-083-093-095-097-101- 105-107-109-119-121-133-135-137-139-145-153-157-159-161-165-167- 171-177-179-060000- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0511.171105T1710Z-171106T0000Z/ IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CARROLL CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FOUNTAIN FRANKLIN GRANT GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWEN PARKE PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE TIPTON UNION VERMILLION VIGO WARREN WAYNE WELLS $$
BOLO for tomorrow!
Be on the look out for strong storms and possible tornadoes throughout the state Indiana tomorrow. The National Weather Service has placed us under an "enhanced risk" for severe weather. It's been a while since we've been under an enhanced risk. We see a lot of marginal and slight risks but this is to be taken seriously.
The NWS forecast discussion:
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/... Issued at 347 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017 Primary focus for the short term remains squarely on the threat for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon and evening as low pressure and a strong cold front swing through the region. Thick low level clouds will likely persist across the forecast area tonight as model soundings maintain a subtle yet shallow inversion. Convective potential increases once again after midnight in response to a low level jet surge spreading over the area and a subtle surface wave tracking from central Illinois northeast into north central Indiana in the vicinity of the warm front. Model soundings show a developing area of weak elevated instability accompanying the surface feature...primarily focused over northwest portions of the forecast area. CAMs beginning to capture the idea of convection increasing in coverage overnight with the potential for a few lightning strikes. Just looking at the thermodynamic setup...a few of the stronger storms could throw out small hail as well. Will raise pops to likely over essentially the northwest half of the forecast area from 06-12Z with scattered pops elsewhere. Showers and storms may linger past daybreak Sunday over northern portions of the area as continued low level forcing and broad ascent support potential for additional convection. The focus will shift to the potential for severe storms to impact central Indiana...primarily during the afternoon and evening as low pressure rides along the frontal boundary from the central Plains into northern Indiana Sunday night. Enhanced low level flow will enable a progressively deeper layer of moisture and a broad elevated mixed layer to advect into the Ohio Valley through the day. Despite cloudy skies...the airmass should have no problem becoming modestly unstable over most of the forecast area...with values peaking between 1000-2000 j/kg by late day. Dynamics aloft remain very good...with diffluence noted aloft over the region and a dual upper jet structure that would support enhanced convective potential focused over northern portions of Indiana and Illinois. BL shear and storm relative helicity values are strongly supportive of the potential for severe storms as well. The primary tornado threat will likely align during the afternoon and early evening in the vicinity of the warm front and immediately ahead of the surface wave track. Confidence continues to increase in the warm front setting up north of the forecast area over northern Indiana. The greatest threat initially as convection develops during the afternoon and migrates into the northern Wabash Valley may end up being large and perhaps significant hail as mid level lapse rates of 7-8C and higher are present over the region. Wet bulb zero values between 8 and 9kft and the potential for nearly 10kft of the mid levels within the hail growth zone both support the large hail concern during the afternoon and early evening. While supercellular structures are likely initially...support pointing towards convection eventually aligning into a QLCS by early evening with the primary severe threat shifting from large hail to damaging winds as convection moves through the forecast area. Isolated tornadoes remain a distinct possibility over central Indiana into Sunday evening...especially considering the potential for quick spinners to develop along the QLCS. That being said...the continued presence of a subtle veer-back-veer wind profile and the lack of an appreciable backing flow in the near surface layer both suggest the tornado threat will be mitigated to some degree. To recap...all modes of severe weather are on the table...but the primary threat over central Indiana may be initially large hail transitioning to damaging winds as the QLCS progresses across the forecast area through the evening. An increase in the low level flow with 850mb winds peaking at 50-55kts Sunday evening will maintain convection into the night with intensity only decreasing slowly as instability is gradually lost. The presence of the stronger low level jet support the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding Sunday night with max precip water values near the climatological peak for early November. Rain and lingering storms will be out of the forecast area prior to daybreak Monday with the cold front settling over the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. A surface wave will drift into the Ohio Valley along the boundary Monday night...providing a renewed threat for showers focused over the southern half of the forecast area. Temps...even with no sunshine expected Sunday...it will be unseasonably warm as temperatures should warm into the lower and mid 70s with dewpoints into the 60s providing a distinctly muggy feel to the air. Much cooler air will spread across the region in the wake of the cold frontal passage with highs in the 50s. Lows tonight will remain quite mild with the southerly flow in the warm sector...but expect a return to lows primarily in the 40s by Monday night. Overall...a general model blend matched up with low level thermals nicely. &&
Iowa State University - Iowa Environment Mesonet
This is a cool website with a lot of bells and whistles. I was able to generate some data from it based on others that I saw online. Can you believe it has been 608 days since our last winter storm warning? Hopefully that will change soon.
#BOTS fans in the area have to be getting excited right now.
For those of you that do not know, #BOTS has two meanings. On one hand it's for the snow lovers and means Bring On The Snow. On the other hand there are the snow haters and they prefer Bring On The Spring Season. So, are you a #BOTS fan with one "S" or with two?
Why today? Well the National Weather Service has added the possibility for a slight chance of rain and snow showers this weekend. The official forecast for a 20% chance of rain / snow showers on Sunday, October 29th. This will be our first in the area since back in March of this year.
From the NWS discussion board:
.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...
Why today? Well the National Weather Service has added the possibility for a slight chance of rain and snow showers this weekend. The official forecast for a 20% chance of rain / snow showers on Sunday, October 29th. This will be our first in the area since back in March of this year.
From the NWS discussion board:
.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 The extended period will initially start out with dry conditions due to brief ridging over the area and slightly warmer temperatures in the 60s. However, the next system is progged to enter the Upper Midwest by Friday, increasing rain chances and lowering temperatures with an associated cold front. This colder air could result in some snow showers mixed in with lingering rain showers on Saturday night as a second upper low drops into the region. Highs will only top off in the upper 40s/low 50s on Saturday and Sunday with lows at the freezing mark on Saturday night.
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