Burl's Weather Page

39 - 86!

What a difference four days can make. Forecast temperatures for the weekend are starting climb a bit. Here are some forecast highs from different sites for our area for Friday and Saturday.
Weather.com 83 / 85
Accuweather 86 / 86
Wx Underground 86 /84
NWS 86 / 86
Dark Sky 85 / 85

It's hard to believe that we reached 39 degrees early Tuesday morning.

Ooh la la.

A nice week ahead. We warm up for the weekend with high temperatures near 85 by Saturday.

How low will it go?

A high of 82 degrees today and then a big cool down. Thursday through Wednesday will feature high temperatures in the 60's and low temperatures in the 40's. Friday night's low could get down to 41 degrees.

From the NWS:

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Issued at 144 AM EDT Wed May 8 2019

Active weather appears in storm tonight and Thursday.

The GFS and NAM suggest a strong short wave pushing toward Indiana
within the quick SW flow aloft. Best forcing looks to arrive after
06Z. Meanwhile at the surface Low pressure surges northwest of
Indiana and the associated LLJ develops across Indiana ahead of
the low...reaching a moderate 40+ knots. Meanwhile within the mid
levels favorable moisture appears present and Time sections and
forecast sounding all show deep saturation by 12Z. Thus will trend
toward categorical pops late tonight and early on thursday as
these features pass. Forecast soundings show limited instability
and although a rumble of thunder will still be
possible...widespread thunderstorms arent expect late tonight or
on early thursday. Bad diurnal timing will also plague instability
development.

Frontal passage is suggested to occur Thursday evening...but the
bulk of any moisture and forcing will be well ahead of the surface
front...and any heating ahead of the front should be limited by
the rain expected during the day. Aloft...the GFS and NAM suggest
a weaker short wave to pass overnight while lingering and limited
lower level moisture remain near the front. We will need to keep
some small chances on Thursday night and early friday as these
features pass...however with limited moisture at this point any
precip amounts will be small.

By Friday afternoon and Evening forecast soundings dry out
considerably as strong high pressure builds across Indiana. As
For temps will trend warmer on Wednesday night with expected
precip and cooler on Thursday through Friday with expected
rainfall and cold air advection as high pressure builds across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed May 8 2019

An upper wave approaching on Saturday will bring in some chances
for showers to the southern counties by Saturday afternoon as a
surface front remains between the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
Stronger upper forcing will move in Saturday night and bring rain
chances across the area, but lack of instability should mean
showers and not thunderstorms. Chances will hang around most of
the area through Sunday morning as the surface system is slow to
move out, but by Sunday afternoon surface high pressure should
start building in and bring rain to an end. Small chances for
showers could move back in on Tuesday from the north if the
surface high gets shoved southward. Temperatures should be below
normal through much of the long term with upper troughing
transitioning to northwesterly upper flow. Near normal
temperatures could return for Tuesday.

A rainbow before sunset in good ol B'town.

Summer is here!

Well, not really. Summer starts on June 21st and ends on September 23rd. But, if you live in Bloomington Indiana, you tend to live by the IU school semester schedule and the means that this weekend, May 3rd & 4th is graduation weekend. Once the students leave, it's generally considered the beginning of summer here.

We will see high temperatures in the 70's with chances for rain everyday this week except for Sunday. Wednesday and Thursday stand out with highest chances of rain between 60 and 70%. At this time I don't see any signs of severe weather.

Here's the discussion from the NWS:

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019

An active weather pattern will be in place over central Indiana
this week as a frontal system stalls over the area. This will keep
chances for rain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
Thursday night. Chances for rain for the weekend are much lower
than the work week as the front finally moves away and broad upper
ridging builds in. Temperatures will run above normal for most of
the area through the period, but could see some lower temperatures
across the northern counties at times depending where the front
sets up.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/...

Issued at 1004 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019

Surface analysis this morning shows Low pressure was in place over
Missouri...with a warm front stretching east across Illinois and
Indiana. Radar shows a couple of areas of showers over Illinois
poised to push across Indiana in the next several hours.

GFS 300K Isentropic surface shows good lift across the area late
this morning and early this afternoon...with favorable specific
humidities over 7 g/kg. Time heights also show good lower level
moisture and lift through the day. meanwhile aloft the models
suggest a moderate short wave pushing across Indiana. Thus with
plenty of forcing in play...have trended pops higher than the
previous forecast. Furthermore given the expected cloud and
precipitation have trended temps a little cooler than the previous
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...

Issued at 343 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019

A frontal system stalling across the area will keep chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the short term.
The best upper forcing appears to be across northern parts of the
forecast area most of the time, and thus highest PoPs are
generally confined there. It is likely that the gradient of
rain/no rain area will fall somewhere in the forecast area, but
pinpointing that is low confidence so generally kept at least a
slight chance for rain going nearly the entire short term for the
whole area. With the influx of warm and moist air should see
enough instability to merit at least a slight chance for
thunderstorms most of the time as well.

A marginal risk for Wednesday/Wednesday night encompasses the
entire forecast area, likely due to the stalled front, a good
upper wave moving across it during the day, and a low level jet
enhancing shear.

Currently appears the highest rainfall amounts will be possible
across the northern counties, but even there looks like less than
previously thought with the axis of highest amounts still well
west of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019

Confidence remains high in shower and thunderstorm chances through
Thursday night as an area of low pressure continues its track
across the Ohio Valley. Latest model runs have slowed the surface
low and a trailing upper low though, and rain is now expected to
linger into Friday. Any thunderstorm threat should subside by
Thursday night, however. At that point, dry conditions will
prevail for Friday night and through Saturday for the northern
portions of central Indiana. The only caveat will be low chances
for some rain showers across the southern counties on Saturday as
models now trend toward a weak upper trough over the Tennessee
Valley. The low rain chances will move through quickly though, and
dry conditions will return for all of central Indiana for Saturday
night and Sunday. The next chance for rain will be on Sunday night
with the next front. Meanwhile, temperatures through the period
will fluctuate a bit between below and above normal.

Wacky weather.

34 and Frost tonight. High of 71 tomorrow. Cover yo plants tonight.

The latest discussion from the NWS:

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

An area of rain across southern Indiana and southwest Ohio continues
to spread slowly northwest as an upper level low moves into eastern
Kentucky. This trend will continue through the early morning hours
as the upper low continues to push slowly northeast.

Will go high PoPs across roughly the eastern two-thirds of the area
where good isentropic lift will continue. There will likely be a
sharp cutoff on the west side of the rain shield. Will try to
capture this as best as possible.

Some locally heavy rain is possible early this morning (before 800
AM) across the far southeastern part of the forecast area, per the
Mesoscale precipitation Discussion from the Weather Prediction
Center. Will continue to watch.

The rain will gradually shift east during the day as the upper low
moves northeast, allowing PoPs to lower from west to east.

The NAM continues to be aggressive in allowing dynamic cooling to
generate an area of snow across the area, albeit farther east than
yesterday`s forecast at this time. However the 3km NAM is not as
aggressive. Other models don`t show any snow. Given that there may be
some more intense bands of precipitation east with some
frontogenetic forcing and deformation, will allow for a mix of rain
and snow over parts of the east (but will not have any accumulation).

Some clearing will occur west today as the system begins its slow
exit, and this will allow sunshine to quickly boost temperatures.
There will be a sharp temperature gradient thanks to this, with a
decent bust potential for highs across parts of the western forecast
area depending on exactly where the clearing gets to.

Gusty winds will persist thanks to a pressure gradient across the
area, but these will diminish as winds aloft weaken and the gradient
relaxes some later today.

Update 4-6-19 (Short version)

Strong storms are possible tomorrow evening.See the NWS bulletin below. The underlined and bold emphasis are mine which highlights the most important parts.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1019 AM EDT Sat Apr 6 2019

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-071000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil,
Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington,
Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee,
Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
1019 AM EDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: No hazardous weather is expected.

Discussion: High pressure will result in dry weather through this
evening. Then, there will be a chance of showers overnight associated
with an approaching low pressure system and warm front.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Outlook: Thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Sunday night and
next Wednesday night and Thursday. Severe storms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening, especially near and south of Bloomington and
Columbus. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main severe
threats, but an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out.

Cloud to ground lightning, brief heavy rain and gusty winds are
threats from any thunderstorm.

Discussion: A low pressure system and warm front will bring
thunderstorms to the area Sunday and Sunday night. Another low
pressure system and warm front will bring more unsettled weather to
the area by the middle of next week.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Sunday afternoon and evening.

Update for 4-6-2019 - (Long Version)

Highs from 70 - 72 from now until Tuesday. There's a 50% chance of thunderstorms for tomorrow night (4-7-19). The NWS has our area under a slight risk.

Here is the discussion from the NWS:

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 6 2019

The main concern for the short term will be the potential for strong
or severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

Models in agreement that a warm front will lift northeast across
central Indiana on Sunday. As it moves through, breaks in morning
convection could allow mixed layer CAPEs to reach or exceed 500 J/KG
during the afternoon. The instability, frontal forcing, and combo of
a southwesterly 35 plus knot low level jet and 55 plus know westerly
mid level jet could see result in some rotating thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon and early evening, especially near the warm
front. Thus, DAY2 SPC Slight Risk for areas near and south of
Bloomington to Columbus looks reasonable as does the Marginal Risk
for rest of the forecast area. Damaging winds and large hail will
be the main threats but can not rule out a tornado or two,
especially near the warm front.

The convection should be ending Monday from northwest to southeast
in the wake of a cold front.

With convection around, confidence in temperatures to within a
degree or two of the blend is not great, but will accept it due to
the uncertainty.

There are some indications that colder weather will try and work its way in toward the middle of April. How strong will it be? How weak will it be? It's way to early to give any details at this point but here is one model's interpretation:

Here is an animation:

Check out these monthly temperature trends:

Good news /bad news scenario:

I hear this complaint every year. I've heard it for many years. Why do we go from winter to summer with very little if any spring at all? Well, the good news is that April will be cooler than normal. Cooler than normal temperatures in March, April and May means fewer tornadoes. That's the good news. The bad news is that by the time we get to May we could see temperatures in the lower to mid 80's. I don't know about you but I'll take it.

Check out this data from May of 2018. Remember when it stayed cold and snow through April? Look at what May looked like. May 14 = 89 Degrees!