St. Louis NWS has the best take on winter forecasting.
The National Weather Service in St. Louis published this regarding next week's *possible* snowstorm:
A snowstorm next week?
Ahhh, maybe. It's way too early to tell. The models have been going back and forth. At this distance we have an equal chance of seeing a rainstorm.
From the NWS:
From the NWS:
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... Issued at 240 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 A Pacific Northwest system and a combination of a southern inverted surface trough and another upper Pacific system will bring chances for rain and or snow showers to the area this weekend into early next week. The best chances per the blend look to be Saturday with the first system and next Monday and Monday night with the second one. Confidence in exact timing and coverage is not great, so will lean on the blend until the systems get closer and the picture looks clearer. Low level thermal progs and expected cloud cover support slightly above normal temperatures on Saturday and below normal temperatures thereafter. Blend highs in the 40s on Saturday and 30s the rest of the long term look reasonable.
#BOTS Fans.
What do you think of no snow for Indiana? Doesn't this look cruel?
Luckily this is the CFS model which is notoriously unreliable so maybe the opposite will happen.
Luckily this is the CFS model which is notoriously unreliable so maybe the opposite will happen.
The pattern seems to be locked in.
Well folks, the pattern seems to be set. This will be a quiet week. I don't see anything happening until Sunday night when there's a 40% chance of rain.
The overall pattern appears to be locked in. It goes a little something like this: A warm front approaches and brings a high wind storm and rain ahead of a strong cold front. Then the arctic air attacks and changes the rain to snow. The arctic air hangs out for a while and then retreats. Then it warms up before the next wind storm and rain arrives. As they say, "Wash, rinse, repeat."
Here's an example of what I mean:
Here's the latest discussion from the National Weather Service:
The overall pattern appears to be locked in. It goes a little something like this: A warm front approaches and brings a high wind storm and rain ahead of a strong cold front. Then the arctic air attacks and changes the rain to snow. The arctic air hangs out for a while and then retreats. Then it warms up before the next wind storm and rain arrives. As they say, "Wash, rinse, repeat."
Here's an example of what I mean:
Here's the latest discussion from the National Weather Service:
LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued at 304 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 Dry weather is expected to start the period with chances for rain beginning late this weekend into early next week. Surface high pressure will be weakening during the day Saturday ahead of a surface cold front that will be approaching the area. Chances for rain begin Sunday afternoon in as southerly winds advect seasonably warm and humid air into central Indiana. Chances for rain increase into Monday as the gulf moisture interacts with the aforementioned surface cold front. Current thoughts are the best chances for rain will be late Sunday into Monday when forcing out ahead of the front is expected to be strongest with the heaviest axis of rain south of the forecast area. Small chances for rain continue into Tuesday with a possibility of a rain/snow mix during the day Tuesday which be dependent on how quickly the cold front exits the area and precipitation ends. Dry conditions are expected for Wednesday with strong cold air advection bringing the coldest temperatures of the period. Temperatures are expected to be above average Saturday through Monday with below average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.
The weather pattern is locking in.
Here's a quick update.
Expect rain on Tuesday and into Wednesday.
There will be tremendous winds on Wednesday. I'm seeing gusts of up to 60MPH. A high wind watch has already been posted so get ready.
Thanksgiving looks somewhat safe with a 50% chance of light rain.
An arctic outbreak looks likely between December 7th and 10th.
The winter pattern looks to be shaping up this way: Storms develop over Colorado and track off to the north-east while riding the leading edge of advancing cold air.
Expect rain on Tuesday and into Wednesday.
There will be tremendous winds on Wednesday. I'm seeing gusts of up to 60MPH. A high wind watch has already been posted so get ready.
Thanksgiving looks somewhat safe with a 50% chance of light rain.
An arctic outbreak looks likely between December 7th and 10th.
The winter pattern looks to be shaping up this way: Storms develop over Colorado and track off to the north-east while riding the leading edge of advancing cold air.
Calm and quite for the next two weeks.
Temperatures will SLOWLY warm up over the next two weeks. I don't see any snow chances. The pattern looks very quiet until November 29th. After that it looks like the pattern will begin to reload with the *potential* for fresh arctic outbreaks. If that fails to happen, I would expect December to be warm than normal and then turn colder towards the end of December and in to January. Stay tuned...
A taste of winter in November.
It's 11 degrees outside right now. That will also be the low temperature for tonight.
According to my measurements, we received two to two-and-a-half inches of snow.
#BOTS Fans!
Wooooo hooooo! I know #BOTS fans are happy. I honestly thought we would only see an inch of snow on grassy areas given how warm and sunny it was yesterday. What a nice surprise.
Please be very careful tomorrow morning into Wednesday morning. Wind chills will be in the single digits. Drive safely and dress in layers.
Send pictures if you have them and want to share them. Here's what I took after work today:
Please be very careful tomorrow morning into Wednesday morning. Wind chills will be in the single digits. Drive safely and dress in layers.
Send pictures if you have them and want to share them. Here's what I took after work today:
The cold front makes it to Bloomington but it's too late
Look at the northern edge of Monroe County on the weather map.
Bad news.
I'm sorry folks but I've got the "bad news blues".
For #BOTS fans: Despite what you see on twitter and facebook, the National Weather Service is not forecasting snow in Monroe County Indiana for Thursday, 11-7-19.
For Fall-weather fans: Forget it! Next week is going to feel more like January than fall so brace yourself. Check the air pressure in your tires. Check your car battery. Keep an ice scraper and a winter coat handy. Get ready! Here's the last discussion from the National Weather Service:
And for all of us: The damn crows are back!
For #BOTS fans: Despite what you see on twitter and facebook, the National Weather Service is not forecasting snow in Monroe County Indiana for Thursday, 11-7-19.
| NWS Forecast for: Bloomington IN Issued by: National Weather Service Indianapolis, IN Last Update: 6:45 pm EST Nov 6, 2019 | |
| Tonight: Showers likely, mainly between 9pm and 2am, then rain likely after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday: A 50 percent chance of rain before 2pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 42. North wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 21. North northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. |
For Fall-weather fans: Forget it! Next week is going to feel more like January than fall so brace yourself. Check the air pressure in your tires. Check your car battery. Keep an ice scraper and a winter coat handy. Get ready! Here's the last discussion from the National Weather Service:
.SYNOPSIS... Issued at 326 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 Clouds will continue to increase over the rest of the day as a weak cold front approaches the area. Rain has begun to move into the southwest counties and will continue to spread over much of the state by tonight. A few snowflakes will be possible early tomorrow as the front exits the area with dry weather expected through the weekend. Another front is expected to move through early next week bringing chances for precipitation and the coldest air of the season. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 326 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 Active weather is expected for tonight across central Indiana as a weak cold front passes through the area. The front is expected to be near Lafayette around midnight and be exiting the southeast counties by around sunrise. This front will provide just enough lift to cause scattered to widespread stratiform rain tonight. The best chances for rain will be across the southern counties where the moisture is highest. Further north, rain is expected to be more scattered and end by the morning. A few snowflakes will begin to mix in during the late overnight hours as the temperatures continue to fall. No snow accumulations are expected. Winds will begin out of the south at 5 to 10 mph and shift northwesterly as the front passes with occasional gusts around 20 to 25 mph. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/... Issued at 326 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 The primary focus for the period will be on the temperatures and precipitation for Thursday morning as the aforementioned front exits the area. There looks to be a brief period during the morning hours where a mix of rain and snow is possible. Confidence is fairly low in seeing snow with the cold air generally moving in after the precipitation exits. No snow accumulations are expected. Dry weather will is expected from Thursday afternoon through the end of the period as high pressure builds across the area. A weak upper level disturbance is expected to move over the area Saturday and Saturday night but with little to no moisture, precipitation looks unlikely with the only impacts being winds in the range of 20-30 mph during the day on Saturday. Temperatures will be well below average through the period with highs in mid 30s to mid 40s Thursday and Friday and then the mid to upper 40s on Saturday. Lows will range from the low to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 The long term will start out with slightly below normal temperatures but models show a general agreement on a cold front moving through Sunday night. There are some disagreements between models on depth and timing of the front leading to a lack of confidence on the timing of the precipitation along and ahead of the front. At this time, precip is possible between Sunday evening through Monday overnight. Some snow will likely mix in with the rain and even switch over to all snow at times for the more northern counties as temperatures drop. Cross polar flow starting early next week is going to usher in significantly colder air Monday through the end of the forecast period. By midweek, highs will be near 30 degrees and lows in the teens. Wind chills on Tuesday could dip down to the single digits.
And for all of us: The damn crows are back!
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