BOTS!

We had our first snow in Bloomington earlier this morning between 5 and 7 am.

Iowa State University - Iowa Environment Mesonet

This is a cool website with a lot of bells and whistles. I was able to generate some data from it based on others that I saw online. Can you believe it has been 608 days since our last winter storm warning? Hopefully that will change soon.

On this date in history.

Add caption

#BOTS!

#BOTS fans in the area have to be getting excited right now.

For those of you that do not know, #BOTS has two meanings. On one hand it's for the snow lovers and means Bring On The Snow. On the other hand there are the snow haters and they prefer Bring On The Spring Season. So, are you a #BOTS fan with one "S" or with two?

Why today? Well the National Weather Service has added the possibility for a slight chance of rain and snow showers this weekend. The official forecast for a 20% chance of rain / snow showers on Sunday, October 29th. This will be our first in the area since back in March of this year.

From the NWS discussion board:


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 343 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The extended period will initially start out with dry conditions
due to brief ridging over the area and slightly warmer
temperatures in the 60s. However, the next system is progged to
enter the Upper Midwest by Friday, increasing rain chances and
lowering temperatures with an associated cold front. This colder
air could result in some snow showers mixed in with lingering rain
showers on Saturday night as a second upper low drops into the
region. Highs will only top off in the upper 40s/low 50s on
Saturday and Sunday with lows at the freezing mark on Saturday
night.

NOAA releases official winter outlook

Indiana looks to be slightly wetter than normal with near normal to slightly above normal temperatures for the southern parts of Indiana.

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-noaa-forecasters-predict-cooler-wetter-north-and-warmer-drier-south

NOAA winter outlook for 2017-18

Can you spot the cold front in the map below?

A cool down is coming in the middle of October.

Temperatures could be slightly below normal during the middle of October. The target dates would be between October 12 - 19. Say good bye to the 80's and maybe even the high 70's after this period.

From the NWS:

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

An active and unsettled weather pattern will continue through much
of the extended as the cold front remains draped across the region
into early next week.

The convective threat will be primarily focused over northern
portions of the forecast area on Friday and Friday night in closer
proximity to the boundary. Decent extended model agreement exists
on a sharp upper wave ejecting out of the northern Plains on
Friday and tracking into the Great Lakes Saturday while steadily
strengthening. The upper wave will help to generate a surface low
along the boundary which will rapidly intensify on Saturday as it
cuts across the Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will be drawn
through central Indiana Saturday afternoon and evening as a result
with the potential for stronger convection to accompany the
boundary.

Model consensus favoring the deepening low pressure lifting
north-northeast towards James Bay rapidly Saturday night with the
frontal boundary getting left behind over the Ohio Valley.
Confidence lowers from this point forward as several factors could
contribute to additional rain and convection impacting the region
into early next week. Some model agreement starting to show
regarding tropical development over the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend. The system is expected to lift north near or just east of
the Mississippi River by late Sunday and eventually get drawn
into the Tennessee and possibly Ohio Valleys by Monday as it
interacts with yet another wave kicking east into the region. The
remnant boundary could serve as a focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms with higher pops once again warranted for Sunday
night and Monday. The front will sweep the low lifting out of the
Gulf off to the east by early Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain largely above normal through the weekend
with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. The departure of
the front just outside the 7 day will enable a strong Canadian
high pressure to expand across the Midwest. Trends support much
cooler weather across central Indiana by the middle of next week.

A La Nina Watch is in place for this coming winter.

The September ENSO forecast is out!! Forecasters think there is an approximately 55-60% chance of La Niña this fall and winter, so we’re hoisting a La Niña Watch. Read on to find out what’s behind this development!

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-watch

A quick update for September 13, 2017.

The current conditions in Bloomington are cloudy with light drizzle. The streets are partially wet. The temperature is 62 degrees. There will be light rain off and on for the rest of the day. It warms up into the weekend with temperatures in the mid 80's.

Jose still seems on track to strike the east coast somewhere between North Carolina and Maine.

The Winter Storm Watch of the season has been post in Condon, Montana.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
203 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

MTZ006-007-043-132015-
/O.NEW.KMSO.WS.A.0007.170915T0300Z-170915T1800Z/
203 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ABOVE 6000 FEET...

* Impacts/Timing: A dramatic change in the weather is on the way
  as a very cold and wet weather system drives the snow level down
  to near 6000 feet overnight Thursday into Friday morning along
  with temperatures plummeting 30 to 50 degrees colder compared
  to Tuesday (today). Slushy snow accumulations are expected on
  the mountainous terrain, trails and dirt roads which may
  negatively affect recreation or travel. Additionally, the
  transition from very cold rain to snow and the dramatic change
  to colder weather will heighten the risk of hypothermia to those
  who are not well equipped or prepared for early winter weather
  conditions.

* In addition, a mix of smoke and variable visibility throughout
  the higher terrain will abruptly change to low visibility and
  widespread terrain obscurations. Again, it must be emphasized,
  this is a HUGE change from the current warm summer recreational
  conditions.

* Snow accumulations: 6000 to 7000 feet: 1 to 3 inches. Above 7000
  feet: 3 to 6 inches are possible...especially over the highest
  peaks.

* Locations impacted include: Highway 93 Sula to Lost Trail
  Pass, Georgetown Lake, and MacDonald Pass