Enjoy the warm weather while it lasts. By December 6th we'll see sustained high temperatures in the 30's. There is a possibility that we might see some snow a week later between December 13th and 16th. This colder pattern looks to hold in place for about ten days to two weeks and I think the pattern will ease up a little just after Christmas but that is too far away to tell right now. So once again, enjoy the warm weather while it lasts.
Also, there could be a risk for some severe weather during the transition to colder weather on December 6th.
Thanksgiving week will be a wild ride. High temperatures will be in the 50's some days and in the 30's on other days. Up and down... up and down. See the animation below for next week. I don't see any clear signs of snow showing up just yet. Hang in there,
#BOTS!
.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Issued at 142 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017
Quasi-zonal flow ends going into this period as several mid/high
level shortwave troughs will move over the area and bring periods
of rain. First wave will move from Alberta into the Great Lakes
Tuesday and Wednesday bring the first round of rain, then the next
one will move from the Pacific Northwest into the Plains starting
precipitation possibly as early as Thursday night, more likely on
Friday into early Saturday. There is low confidence in the
precipitation starting as early as Thursday like the Euro, but
maybe wait until Friday afternoon, which is what the GFS is
leaning towards. Both models bring a southerly advection of
moisture northward into the area, so there may be some moderate
rainfall with each of these systems. At this point in time, it
looks like the Friday system, but will keep a low confidence right
now on the timing/intensity of the second storm system.
Temperatures are forecast to be into the lower half of the 50s
Tuesday through Thursday before falling into the 40s again
Saturday. Low temperatures will generally be in the mid or upper
30s with the exception of Friday morning when lows are forecast in
the low/mid 40s.
There are a number of amateur and non-amateur weather geeks and weather nerds out there. You add that to the numerous websites that have free access to forecasting models and you're bound to hear some crazy gossip about much snow we are going to see in two weeks.
Yes, two weeks from today is Thanksgiving Day. That's also fourteen days away. There' very low confidence on anything a model churns out that far in advance. It's just not that trustworthy. So beware of internet posts showing charts and graphs depicting snow like this one:
It’s really important that anyone who is in charge of the safety of an institution — a university campus, for example — maintain an updated, working knowledge of how weather warnings work. Tweets sent today by Indiana University today could lead one to believe that its campus safety staff could benefit from some education in that area.
At 1:19 p.m. EST, the Indianapolis office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a tornado warning that included a portion of southern Monroe County, Indiana. The warning came with a polygon that clearly showed that the IU campus was not included.
Polygon associated with Nov. 5 tornado warning near Bloomington, IN. The National Weather Service issued the warning only for the area inside the red polygon.
In addition, the text of the warning indicated that “a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles northwest of Bedford, moving east at 30 mph.” In other words, the storm was not moving toward Bloomington or the IU campus (which is why NWS meteorologists drew the polygon as they did).
Six minutes after the NWS issued the warning, IU sent a tweet at 1:25 regarding what it called a “tornado warning for Bloomington.”
Dr. Kirkpatrick knew what he was talking about. Those sending tweets on behalf of IU demonstrated ignorance of the National Weather Service’s “storm-based warning” system. When the NWS implemented that system a decade ago, it replaced the county-wide warnings to which IU’s tweet refers, with warnings based on polygons that indicate where the actual risk is.
In subsequent tweets, Dr. Kirkpatrick attempted to point that out, as well as the fact that IU’s original tweet was ambiguous. IU’s response:
But is warning people who are not at risk really better than warning only people who are truly at risk? Is doing so truly “safe,” or does it exacerbate existing challenges with getting people to respond appropriately to warnings?
The people at any institution like IU, who are in charge of disseminating public safety information, would do well to take full advantage of the informational resources that exist among their own faculty. Doing so could lead to better weather safety communications in the future.
The long range looks pretty boring right now. The pattern continues to be a very zonal west to east pattern with fast moving rain storms coming and going. High temperatures will trend in the 50's with low's in the upper 30's to 40's. for the next ten days to two weeks. This will likely be the pattern until Thanksgiving. After Thanksgiving we might have a better chance at seeing some snow.
#BOTS!
