It's 49 degrees with a 12 MPH wind out of the south. It's just a tad bit too cold to go golfing today. I know how the golfers feel. They are not #BOTS fans at all. They feel more like this:
Rainsgiving is likely tomorrow.
The holiday comes with an 80% chance of rain so take an umbrella to Grandma's house tomorrow. Other than that the pattern we are in is a very quiet one. I don't see anything interesting coming up until December 5 - 10. That's too far away to trust any computer model at this point. I've seen some models give rain, then snow, then ice and then nothing. Check out these wild forecasts of snow in Florida and Georgia.
Also, a word on snow forecasts. Fox 59 out of Indianapolis did a nice weather story on how to spot "Snow Spam". That means how tell when someone is lying about us receiving two feet of snow. It's a good article. Check it out:
@10:00Am The rain is changing to snow right now in Bloomington Indiana
What a bummer! We missed out on most of the snow as it is now off to our east in Ohio. Enjoy it while it lasts.
#BOTS! Bloomington Indiana's first snow is likely tonight and tomorrow.
.Short Term...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 Many locations across central Indiana have seen their first snowflakes of the season over the last several hours. Early this morning...pockets of flurries continue to drift across the northeast half of the forecast area in tandem with an upper trough axis. 08Z temperatures were in the 30s with continued brisk westerly winds making it feel even colder. The warm pleasant weather enjoyed through much of the first ten days of the month now feel like a distant memory and will feel even further away as the weekend progresses. The first true winter-like weekend of the season is upon us with cold gray weather expected through Sunday with the added potential for a dusting of snow late tonight into Sunday morning as a surface wave tracks through the lower Great Lakes. A deep upper level low was centered over James Bay this morning with a sharp trough axis currently swinging through the region. This will be replaced by subtle ridging aloft later today before another piece of energy on the back side of the upper low pivots across the upper Midwest and into the Ohio Valley for Sunday. At the surface... ridging will follow in tandem for later today with the upper ridge ahead of the aforementioned surface wave dropping out of the northern Plains late today and across the lower Great Lakes for Sunday. The combination of these features will be a continued unsettled weather pattern for much of the weekend. Scattered flurries continue early this morning but have generally decreased in coverage as drier air aloft begins to advect into the region. Despite the drier air expanding with the ridging as the day progresses...model soundings and RH progs show a stout low level inversion that will persist all day and into this evening. With moisture trapped beneath the inversion...a low stratus deck will remain through this evening and while the moisture remains shallow with little to no forcing aloft...cannot rule out a few flurries or sprinkles lingering into the afternoon. Steepening lapse rates beneath the inversion also support this potential which should mainly focus over the northern half of the forecast area. Brisk W/SW winds will continue today as well though not be anywhere near as gusty as on Friday. The approach of the surface wave from the northwest later tonight will bring the first measurable snowfall to much of central Indiana focused predominantly during the predawn hours through Sunday morning before warming through the boundary layer gradually transitions snow back to rain. Nice mid and upper level diffluence will develop ahead of the approaching surface low and upper trough late tonight which in tandem with a surge of isentropic lift aided by strengthening 850mb flow will spread precip into the region from the west after 05-06Z. Critical thicknesses support the precip type to be snow for much of the forecast area through daybreak Sunday with any mixing with rain likely confined to the lower Wabash Valley where the boundary layer will be slightly warmer. Precip type will gradually switch to rain through midday Sunday from southwest to northeast before snow mixes back in late day with renewed cold advection behind a cold frontal passage. As mentioned above...confidence continues to grow in seeing the first measurable snowfall for much of the forecast area early Sunday with a dusting up to perhaps around an inch with the highest amounts across northern counties. With road temperatures still quite warm...expect most accums will be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces with little to no impacts to travelers. This will likely melt as temperatures warm on Sunday. Precip will be coming to an end by sunset Sunday as the low pulls away and high pressure begins to build in from the west. Temps...well below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend. Low level thermals support undercutting guidance with highs later today likely to struggle to 40 degrees. Sunday will end up only subtly warmer by a couple degrees. Brisk conditions today with the potential for higher gusts Sunday will bring a raw chilly feel to the air. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s. && .Long Term...(Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 The beginning of the long term period will be dry but chilly after a trough exits the area and ridging takes its place. Tight pressure gradients will continue winds gusting to around 25 kts for Sunday night, but as the axis of the surface high settles in, winds will drop back down to 5 to 10 kts for the start of the work week. The airmass origin will change quickly during the first half of the week from a chilly, westerly airmass to a warm, southerly one. This shift in the flow comes ahead of another trough, allowing for strong warm air advection as temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to briefly return to the 60s. A surface cold front associated with the trough will allow lift for the moisture also being advected into the area. A line of rain showers is expected to track from NW to SE through the day Wednesday and possibly into the day Thursday. The exact timing of this system has yet to be ironed out, but models are trending more towards Wednesday to Wednesday night than Thursday at this time. There is agreement on a lack of instability so will keep out any mention of thunder for now. Behind the front, a northwesterly airmass will return temperatures back into the 40s and 30s, with lows possibly dipping into the 20s, for the remainder of the period. Friday looks dry due to subsidence passing through, but central Indiana could see additional rain and mixed precipitation over the weekend. && .Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 539 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 IMPACTS: - MVFR ceilings through early evening...then returning towards daybreak Sunday - Periodic westerly wind gusts approaching 20kt through early afternoon - Snow showers impacting the terminals predawn hours Sunday DISCUSSION: A few flurries continue to drift across central Indiana early this morning underneath a thick MVFR stratus deck. As drier air aloft expands into the region...the flurries should gradually diminish through the day. However...a stout inversion will keep the stratus deck over central Indiana all day with only modest improvement towards sunset. Westerly winds will be in excess of 10kts into the afternoon with periodic gusts to near 20kts before falling back by late afternoon. Model soundings show the inversion relaxing this evening which should enable a return to VFR ceilings into the early overnight. Clouds will remain though as low pressure approaches from the northwest. Precipitation will expand across central Indiana after 06Z with low level thermals supporting the precip type as snow. Could see visibility restrictions within the light snow through daybreak Sunday with ceilings once again returning to MVFR and perhaps dropping to IFR or lower Sunday morning. Winds will back to southerly towards daybreak Sunday.
There's a shortage of snowplow drivers in Indiana.
Let's your friends now if they want an interesting job for the winter.
When gales of November turn gloomy.
Today is the 46th anniversary of the sinking of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald. There was a powerful storm on November 9-10, 1975 on Lake Superior. That storm was likely the cause of the sinking of the ship and this incident gave rise to the popular song by Gordon Lightfoot.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Edmund_Fitzgerald
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PH0K6ojmGZA
#BOTS!
#BOTS fans! Remember remember the fifteenth of November. There's a small chance for snow showers Sunday night into Monday. I say small because one computer model gives us rain and another one gives us a nice thumping of snow; as in 6 inches. Wednesday 11/10 will be last day to get out and play golf so take advantage of it while you can. Rain moves in Thursday. Read the National Weather Service's discussion below.
.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Nov 9 2021 Big changes coming up in the long term as a potent negatively tilted trough and associated strong low pressure system will bring a quick slug of moderate to heavy rain to the area Thursday followed by much colder temperatures and periodic isolated to scattered shower activity for the weekend. Models consistent in bring a strong cold front across central Indiana Thursday afternoon. The front will interact with deep moisture feeding in from the southwest the tune of around 1 inch precipitable water amounts. This lends high confidence to widespread rain Thursday. Low level jet at 50 knots and 70 plus knot deep shear will also be in place, but lack of instability will not favor updraft growth and subsequent severe weather or even a lightning mention. Fast speed of the system suggests the rain will move east of the area early Friday evening and rainfall totals will be at best an inch and more likely less than an inch. This should not cause any flooding issues. Strong low pressure gradient will result in gusty south and southwest winds through Saturday. Colder air will rush in behind the cold front with afternoon highs only in the 40s to lower 50s Friday and even colder the rest of the weekend. The upper trough will bring another chance of showers to the area Friday afternoon and evening. Critical thicknesses and Bourgouin Method supports the possibility of a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain over the northeastern half Friday night. The next notable system will be a clipper that will bring a good chance of rain and snow showers to the area Sunday and Sunday night. Temperature advection and cloud cover considerations support well below temperatures by Friday with afternoon highs mostly in the 40s and overnight lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Prior to that warm advection will support well above normal temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s Thursday. A quicker frontal passage then expected would result in cooler highs in areas where the front passes through earlier in the day.
Ouch! That is cold!
The CFS computer model is not well respected or trusted but it does a farily good job of picking up on warming or cooling trends in the long range. Check this out. The freezing line is down in Florida. That's doesn't mean it will be that cold on November 24th but it does *indicate* that a cold punch of air is likely during the second half of November.
37 degrees and patchy frost tonight.
Expect even colder temperatures for next week.
Short Term...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 ...Patchy Frost Tonight and Possible Fog Through daybreak Wed... Early This morning: Satellite imagery showing the trapped stratus layer over the Ohio valley, with cold-dry air still advecting in from the northwest. Lake effect clouds are apparent off of Lake Michigan as well with a strong thermal differential and shallow moisture availability, which could see as winds turn slightly northerly bending a few lake clouds south into the northern forecast area prior to daybreak. Otherwise the pre-dawn hours will be welcomed with some decreasing clouds as the deeper moisture peels off to the east. Temps prior to daybreak may dip a few more degrees, but will hinge on clearing and decoupling the mixed layer to relax the winds. This would then allow some additional release of heat from the surface and drop temps into the lower 40s where dewpoints are presently. Today-Tonight: Mid-lvl heights begin to rise quickly today as an amplifying ridge quickly pushes east ahead of the next system. This ridging will continue to scour the moisture in the atmosphere, but also produce a mostly sunny day. Temps may be slightly sluggish to warm given the saturated soil conditions across the region, absorbing much of the radiation from the sun, but still expect temps to push into the mid to upr 50s. The peak of the ridge slides overhead later this evening, setting the stage for a quick drop in temps post-sunset. Expecting considerable radiational cooling to take place evening/overnight, with minimal wind being mixed down and a dry profile. This should see a release of heat into the mid/upr 30s across the forecast area by early Wed morning, but could also see some radiational fog develop. It is conceivable that a few locations in the far north/northeast or along and east of a Lafayette to Muncie line falling to around 33-35 degrees or flirting with freezing conditions. Confidence is low that we will need any growing season headline; however, some patchy frost is favorable. The fog may not be as potent as once thought, given there may still be some wind albeit less than 5 mph, but in the valley and low-lying areas fog will likely develop in the canopies. Wednesday: 500mb heights will remain elevated through daybreak Wed, as the approaching Pacific system has a slightly negative tilt. This suggests the energy in the lower levels will have pushed east of the upper level support, which guidance indicates the surface low will be lifting northerly from the Arklatex region midday wed. Gulf moisture continues to be primed for being ingested into this system in the lower levels, which will only further expand the precip shield later Wed. Still confidence the heights aloft of Central Indiana will hold, helping to prolong the diffluent flow and delay precip arrival until later Wed. With continued minimal cloud cover Wed, expect a large diurnal swing in temps for much of the area as the surface can realize and absorb the sunlight and push temps to around 60 by midday. Then flow will begin to turn southerly with cirrus shield steadily increasing from south/southwest to north in the afternoon. && .Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 ...Wednesday Night into Saturday... Another good dose of rainfall is expected late in the week as the powerful Pacific system moves eastward across the country and closes off by Wednesday morning over the Plains. The large upper low will slowly push eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday night into the early portion of the weekend, with showers possible throughout that time frame, but particularly Thursday into Friday as forcing and precipitable water values are maximized. Models are generally in good agreement that precipitable water values will be high but not massively so, generally a bit above the climatological 75th percentile or a bit below 2 standard deviations for the time of year...or as high as about 1.1 to 1.3 inches. Total precipitation during the latter half of the week looks to be about 0.75 inch to 1.5 inches, which should not significantly worsen the current hydrologic situation, in part thanks to the prolonged time frame of the rainfall. This will, however, prolong the elevated streamflows and any return to baseline hydrologic conditions. ...Saturday Night into Monday... The latter half of the weekend should be dry as a narrow axis of upper level ridging and surface high pressure move into the area. ...Monday Night into Tuesday... A solid cold front looks to move through the region early next week, which may produce some additional showers as cyclonic upper level flow drops into the Midwest. A good cooldown should accompany this front with overnight lows by the end of the forecast period dropping well into the 30s. Model handling of this front and the potential for surface low development along it differ far more substantially than with the earlier system and result in fairly low pops for now.
ICYMI, there was an earthquake drill this morning.
"The Great American Shakeout is a FEMA-directed MIdwest earthquake simulation that is scheduled for October 21 at 10:21 am. Over 1.6 million people in the Midwest have registered to take part in this drill including schools, businesses, and individuals."
https://www.shakeout.org/centralus/participants.php?start=Indiana
NOAA realeased its official 2021-22 winter outlook today.
It's bad news for #BOTS fans. It looks like this winter season will be warmer than average.
Click on the link below to read the full report.
Click to see the youtube video below.
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