The weather computer models were advertising extreme heat back in late June and then subsequently pushing that date off for a week. Heat advisories are not out yet for Bloomington but I expect them to be posted for much of Indiana very soon.
#BOTS fans!
Weather dot com is already talking about the upcoming winter season.
Winter 2023-24
Most El Niños hit their peak in late fall or winter and thus have their strongest influence on weather patterns in the colder months.
The classic El Niño winter is rather warm from Alaska into western and central Canada and then into the northern tier of states from the Pacific Northwest to the western Great Lakes.
It tends to be colder and wetter than average through much of the southern U.S., particularly from Texas to the Carolinas. We found that some cities in the Southwest, Southern Plains and mid-Atlantic have their snowiest winters during El Niño.
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2023-06-08-el-nino-has-developed
Tornado sirens just sounded in Bloomington, Indiana.
We were already under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch but not a Tornado Watch. Here is what I captured.
In other weather news, let's hope the heat stays in the southwest. The GFS has been hinting at a northeast shift since late June.
Here's the latest thoughts from the NWS:
Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 The long term will span the final days of the year`s climatologically hottest period...yet temperatures are progged to continue their near, to at times slightly below normal trend. Synoptically, a rather broad H500 trough will prevail over the eastern half of North America...while a hot upper ridge centered near the Four Corners extends northward into southwestern Canada. With the inflection point amid this wave hinged near Iowa, central Indiana will generally be influenced by weak disturbances embedded in the flow of the trough`s southwestern quadrant. Tuesday Night through Thursday... A more active pattern is expected for the mid-week as the upper trough first becomes better established near/east of the region. A more zonal pattern that should hold pronounced heat just to our south and west...will nevertheless focus so-called ridge-riding convective chances from the Middle Mississippi Valley towards Kentucky. This conditional opportunity for isolated to scattered showers/t-storms will be focused across southern portions of Indiana where deep moisture levels will approach 2.00 inches. Convective parameters will present conditional potential both days...with daytime CAPE ranging from around 1000 J/kg (Wednesday) to 2000 J/kg (Thursday)...with decent mid-level lapse rates Wednesday and lackluster amounts Thursday...yet all while the ridge gradient`s presence brings adequate vertical wind shear over the region both days. Late Thursday`s storm potential could also be enhanced by the trough`s weak wave/boundary passing just north of the region. Marginal severe threats would be primarily wind and large hail with limited amounts of low-level shear. The Wednesday night-Thursday tandem are expected to be the warmest of the long term, with lows 65- 70F and highs in the mid to upper 80s...with other periods at least a couple degrees lower amid this continued seasonable stretch of mid- summer conditions. Friday through Monday... A somewhat drier column will accompany seasonably weak, yet rather broad surface high pressure that should cross the Midwest late this week. Guidance is continuing to show a transition early next week as lower heights slide east and the hot, western ridge perhaps finally builds towards the Midwest. At a first glance a few pulse storms cannot be ruled out as a more summery pattern returns, with what should be low-moderate levels of both instability and wind shear. Most days surrounding this weekend are expected to bring highs 80-85F and lows 60-65F.
Uh Oh! Check out this bow echo!
What is this? A "Bow Echo".
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2023 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS INC005-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-045-049-051-055-057- 063-067-071-081-083-091-093-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-117-119- 121-123-125-129-131-133-141-147-149-153-157-159-163-165-167-171- 173-175-181-300000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0417.230629T1810Z-230630T0000Z/ IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN CARROLL CASS CLAY CLINTON CRAWFORD DAVIESS DUBOIS FOUNTAIN FULTON GIBSON GREENE HAMILTON HENDRICKS HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE LA PORTE MARION MARSHALL MARTIN MIAMI MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN ORANGE OWEN PARKE PERRY PIKE POSEY PULASKI PUTNAM SPENCER ST. JOSEPH STARKE SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE TIPTON VANDERBURGH VERMILLION VIGO WARREN WARRICK WASHINGTON WHITE $$
The air quality is very unhealthy today!
I suggest wearing a mask if outside.
Air Quality Alert
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-300315- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone- Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam- Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby- Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess- Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon 1102 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023 ...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... The officials at the Indiana Department of Environmental Management have declared an Air Action Day, in effect until midnight EDT on Thursday. An Air Quality Action Day for PM 2.5 has been issued. Fine particulate levels are expected to be Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma should limit prolonged outdoor exposure. Here are some recommended actions that the public can take: * Carpool or use public transportation. * Staying indoors whenever possible. * Monitor indoor air quality by keeping air circulating and checking on indoor filtration systems. * Avoid using the drive-through and combine errands into one trip. * Avoid refueling your vehicle or using gasoline-powered lawn equipment until after 7pm. * Turn off your engine when idling for more than 30 seconds. * Conserve energy by turning off lights or setting the air conditioner to 75 degrees or above. For additional information, please visit the IDEM Smog page at: https://www.apps.idem.in.gov/smogwatch
The 90's are back for this weekend.
We'll have a high temperature of 90 on Saturday and Sunday. It cools off next week and then the 90's return for the July 4th holiday. Happy Summer Solstice!
Here is what the NWS out of Indianapolis is thinking:
.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023 By Friday morning, it appears that the Rex Block pattern that has dominated this week`s weather across the eastern CONUS will have finally broken. With upper level ridging over the northern Great Lakes decaying and the cutoff low over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys finally propagating northwards, Friday should be the last day that these synoptic features drive the forecast for our region. The aforementioned low should eject northeastward throughout the day on Friday, but guidance depicts a lobe of cyclonic vorticity swinging around its left side in this time frame. As a result, areas along and east of I-65 will retain chance PoPs for showers on Friday afternoon. Cloud coverage will limit temperatures in this same region, and Friday`s forecast highs are marked by a steep gradient from west to east. Areas west of I-65 will see less cloud coverage and lower rain chances, and will thus rise into the 80s. Meanwhile, areas east of this corridor will only reach the mid 70s amidst thicker clouds, but a distinct pattern shift will allow conditions to improve by the weekend. On the periphery of weak upper level ridging, Saturday will be dry and warm across Central Indiana. This is not the case upstream, as a developing low pressure over the Great Plains and shortwave upper trough will trigger storms (and potentially an MCS) to develop out closer to Iowa. Locally, the development of this surface low will contribute to the breakdown of the past week`s block and will allow surface flow to veer to westerly and southerly. This, in turn, will enhance warm air advection over our forecast area, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s on Saturday. Low level flow strengthens into Sunday, only enhancing this ongoing warm air and moisture advection and setting the stage for potential convective thunderstorm activity in Indiana. While this system is likely to give our area the best rain chances we have seen in a while, multiple questions remain up in the air regarding any severe weather potential on Sunday. The first of these questions relates to the upstream activity mentioned above; will it develop into an MCS and will this MCS make it all the way to Indiana? The presence of a seasonably potent 500mb jet streak nearby depicted in some guidance on Sunday would support this system sustaining itself. However, it will also have to overcome a loss of diurnal thermal instability, as it would approach the area overnight/early in the morning. The next question depends on the strength of any lingering activity; would it locally suppress the thermodynamic environment via latent heat processes and decrease instability for Sunday afternoon? Weaker or nonexistent Sunday morning storms would allow for greater potential for convective initiation across Indiana later in the day. Any storms that form on Sunday afternoon will exist in a favorable shear directional regime, and modeled soundings demonstrate the need to monitor severe weather approach if favorable thermodynamics are realized. More questions exist regarding the spatiotemporal placement of the driving shortwave trough; will the best forcing be displaced south or east of the area? While guidance generally agrees in the shift towards a more favorable synoptic pattern for convection (and rain!!), many of these questions will remain up in air until the system enters the range of higher-resolution modeling. Stay tuned to future forecast updates as this event approaches, as trends in the above questions will be watched in the coming days. A typical summertime weather pattern will emerge into the early part of next week. With a ridge building over the southern Plains and broad troughing over the NE states, Indiana will exist in a regime of NW flow aloft and SW flow at the surface. This combination typically results in warm, moist air over our area, increasing the potential for precipitation. Said precipitation is driven by mesoscale features beyond the scope of medium-range modeling, but expect climatologically appropriate weather for the start of the next workweek.
Attacks on meteorologist causes one in Iowa to resign after getting PTSD.
What a shame!
When Iowa meteorologist Chris Gloninger got an email notification last June, it read: “Getting sick and tired of your liberal conspiracy on the weather.”
“What’s your address,” another asked Gloninger a few days later. “We conservative Iowans would like to give you an Iowan welcome you will never forget.”
Meteorologist resigns, citing PTSD from threats over climate change coverage
Air Quality Alert still in effect. More haze today and tonight
I don't think we will see any relief until it rains on Sunday. In the meantime, you would not imagine how many fires there are in the North American hemisphere. Unbelievable!
Terrible air quality in Indiana through Thursday.
In case you didn't know, there are wildfires in Canada that are creating smoke and haze across the United States. If you have allergies or respiratory issues, it might be best to stay inside the next two days. Here are some helpful websites to determine the air quality in your area:
The Indiana Department of Environmental Management
Environmental Protection Agency Air Now
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert Message
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
109 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-081715-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-
Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-
Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-
Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport,
West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon,
Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson,
Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton,
Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle,
Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield,
New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville,
Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville,
Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield,
Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus,
Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford,
Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
109 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023
...AN AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN DECLARED...
The officials at the Indiana Department of Environmental
Management have declared an Air Quality Alert for...
Wednesday...June 7th and Thursday... June 8th for all central
Indiana counties...
Particulates and Ozone levels are expected to be in the Orange or
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. Active children and adults,
and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma, should limit
prolonged outdoor exposure.
Here are some recommended actions that the public can take to reduce
ozone forming emissions:
* Walk, bike, carpool or use public transportation.
* Avoid using the drive-through and combine errands into one trip.
* Avoid refueling your vehicle or using gasoline-powered lawn
equipment until after 7pm.
* Turn off your engine when idling for more than 30 seconds.
* Conserve energy by turning off lights or setting the air
conditioner to 75 degrees or above.
Be sure to thank your local meteorologist if you can.
If you get a chance, send them a "Thank You" card. CNN is reporting that they are being harassed and targeted by by conspiracy theorists.
‘Murderers’ and ‘criminals’: Meteorologists face unprecedented harassment from conspiracy theorists
Heat Alert! A taste of summer is coming next week. 90+ degrees!
Well, let's be honest here. We have had a FABULOUS month this May. It was mostly clear and sunny (some rain but not a lot) with high temperatures in 70's and lows in the 50's at night. It was just great! But now reality is about to set in next week so enjoy this last week of May.
The good news is that the 90+ degree weather looks to be short lived and then temperatures will drop back into the low 80's. In the meantime, expect a mini-heatwave between May 31 and June 4.
Here is how the National Weather Service describes it:
.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Models and ensembles are continuing the trend that the stagnant central CONUS ridge will likely keep an upper low that will develop in the southwest portion of trough, associated with a New England and Canadian Maritimes upper low, far enough southeast to keep showers away through Memorial Day. Previously, the GFS and its ensemble mean had it close enough to spit some afternoon QPF over central Indiana as early as Sunday. The upper ridge will provide dry and seasonable weather through the weekend. The only concern would be a potential for elevated fire danger as the continued dry weather gradually lowers 10 hour fuel moisture levels and northeast surface winds around the Great Lakes high will continue to reinforce MinRH levels to around 25 percent at times during the afternoon hours through at least Saturday. That said, winds will be marginal due to the weak pressure gradients both at the surface and top of the mixing height. For Holiday weekend outdoor activity planning, even in a worst case scenario, believe any shower activity will be brief, isolated, diurnal in nature and not until Monday afternoon at the earliest. Afternoon temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s along with the low humidity levels will make it feel comfortable for humans and pets alike. Isolated diurnal convection would seemingly be more plausible toward the middle of next week, when a broad ridge builds over the area and dew points rise as winds take on a southerly component. Even then, shear will be likely for any kind of organized convection. Being firmly entrenched under the ridge, 90+ degrees look a very real possibility by Tuesday or Wednesday.
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