I know that makes some of you happy and others of you sad. Fall starts tomorrow. Well, officially it starts while you are sleeping tonight on Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 2:50 AM. Is that why we have to change our clocks at 2:00am for DST? Oh well, enjoy the nice days ahead. High temperature will be in the 70's for a long time. No other notable changes to report.
I have noticed that the leaves change colors much earlier nowadays. It seems to start in late August. Just about anyone can find leaves changing color right now.
Enjoy!
There are winter forecasts out. If you're a weather nerd like me you've probably already heard the rumor by now that two famous internet meteorologist are saying that this will be a severe winter just like 1977 and 1978. The ocean and atmospheric patterns are the same but come on, we haven't even made it to the end of summer yet. It's still to early to talk about winter. Am I excited about the pattern? Yes! But's it's too early to tell. My analysis is telling me that we are warm until January and then February and March will be the coldest and snowiest month but let's wait and see. Things can change a lot between now and then. So, here what's being said:
Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: (7minutes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_82d_aGfYA4
Ryan Hall Y'all (8 minutes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqFwo4g_X7g
Cold air is building in the northeastern part of Canada and some of it is sliding down far enough to push the 90 degree heat out of our area. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50's and 60's for a while. High temperatures will be in the upper 70's and 80's. We are not out of the woods yet. Summer will try and make a comeback during the last week of September.
And check this out:
The infamous rain/snow line! It won't be long. #BOTS!
Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Hot temperatures are the main focus in the long term portion of the forecast. It still appears heat indices will stay below critical levels, and likely below 100F, but there are some uncertainties. See analysis below for details. A low probability of rain emerges by around the middle of next week, but dry weather will prevail until then. Since the pattern is somewhat different with the upcoming period of heat compared to the previous period of heat, there are model performance considerations. Questions include: 1. magnitude of moisture return and 2. model bias with regards to temperatures (which was an issue for the last period of heat). The previous event saw anomalous moisture which was deep enough not to mix out and this impacted temperatures (cooler than modeled). It also contributed to high heat indices and heat related impacts. On the synoptic scale, forecast confidence is quite high with anomalous 500-mb heights. Multi-model ensemble run-to-run comparisons may show a slightly more amplified/anomalous ridge and slightly further east position into early next week, but generally negligible changes sensible weather. It is these minor details with potential model biases and moisture magnitude to could result in minor shifts in our forecast over the next few days. We do not see a path where we would substantially exceed 100F for heat indices, however, given the synoptic-scale stability in medium range guidance. So, heat-related illness should be fairly minimal during this upcoming anomalously warm period. There is a low probability of some precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. It does appear that on the periphery of eastern surface high, at least modified moisture return will occur early-mid week. There is an upper low with low latitude subtropical origins that will eject northeastward ahead a shortwave trough and potentially enhance mid-high level moisture. This, in addition to modified low- level moisture, should push precipitable water values above climatology. As the aforementioned shortwave trough`s associated front moves through sometime between Tuesday night and Wednesday night (there is spread in the medium-range models), interacting with moisture, this should bring at least sparse coverage of convection across Indiana. Looking beyond the 7-day period, there is above confidence in continued above normal temperatures given the signal in the medium- range ensemble suite. This should be a mostly dry pattern as well.
