Official statement from the NWS

SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Severe storms expected to develop and move through central
Indiana later tonight and during the overnight, with potential for
tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. The threat will continue
into Wednesday morning until a cold front moves through to bring
it to an end. Small chances for rain or snow will be off and on
Wednesday night through Friday night for parts of the area, but a
warmup will come for the weekend. More rain chances arrive to end
the weekend and start the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Forecast focus is on severe weather expected tonight-both the
threats and the timing. Incredible dynamics are coming into place
over the area with a strong upper jet and low level jet forecast
to come into phase tonight over the Ohio Valley. While instability
could be a somewhat limiting factor given the timing during the
night and no sunshine today, moisture return has been ample on
southerly flow and dewpoints in the 60s are already making their
way into central Indiana. The vertical shear profiles are
extremely favorable for rotating storms, and LCLs and LFCs are
sufficiently low to not impede tornado development.

Best estimate on timing of severe potential for the area at this
point is starting around 9pm in the western counties, 10-11
central and midnight or so east. Initially more discrete cells
are anticipated that could possibly morph into a line as they
move across the area, but some models are also indicating they may
keep their more discrete nature. There is also potential after
this first batch of storms that another may come behind them in
the form of a squall line ahead of the cold front.

Given the shear profiles, the tornado threat will continue through
the overnight hours, along with potential for very large hail and
damaging winds.

Also of note...southern counties received a couple of rounds of
showers and thunderstorms already today, with around an inch of
rain or more in some locations. With another couple of rounds
moving through tonight and ample moisture, see potential for
flash flooding and have issued a flash flood watch for that area.

Tornado watches have been posted for southern Illinois counties.

Expect more watches to be posted later today.

The NWS has upgraded the storm threat from enhanced to moderate

Active weather setting up for the next few days.

Strong and severe storms are likely in the Bloomington area tonight. There could also be some tornadoes with this system. This system is a lot like the last system that moved through on February 24th. The first line is disorganized and that is where our super cell and tornado threats will be focused; primarily in southern Indiana. The second line moves through much later on. First, let's look at the NWS storm prediction data for tornadoes:

Next, here is the NWS overall storm prediction for strong sever storms:

Here are some "possible" radar setups for the tornadoes: (see red circles)

Finally, here comes the second line of storms:

Be careful and stay safe. Now is the time to change the batteries in your all hazards weather radios and if you don't have one, you should purchase one. It could save your life!

Severe weather over for now.

The second line of storms experienced some deformation. We got lucky on this one but stay tuned for an early and active spring. A couple of snow flakes are possible in the next 36 hours.

First line of storms has moved through.

The second line; the main event, is on the Illinois-Indiana border and moving south eastward.

Small chances for flurries after the passage of the front Friday night.

The NWS (National Weather Service) is giving us 20% chance of rain/snow on Saturday and a 20% chance on Sunday night. After that, it's over.

Strong storms on tap for tomorrow, 2/24/17.

A line of storms associated with a cold front will develop over Illinois and swing through Indiana tomorrow evening from 8pm to 12am. Everyone should stay alert. The main concerns are for the areas highlighted in yellow.

Winter's last stand!

Temperatures will be near 30 degrees above normal for this weekend but don't let that fool you. Old man winter will stage a comeback during the February 25 - March 5, 2015 time frame. After that, the month of March looks to be warm. So, this is it #BOTS fans! This is the likely the last time you'll see any snow until the 2017-18 winter season.

Recurring Rossby Wave and February 23rd.

The Recurring Rossby Wave analysis chart has been hinting at a big drop on February 23rd since back in early January. It has been fairly consistent on this particular date so I'm inclined to trust it. If there's any chance of a late month winter storm, I would keep an eye out for February 23rd.

2/7/17 @11:45am

It's mostly cloudy in Bloomington with a light wind and a temperature of 60 degrees. There are some sprinkles and very light rain but that's about it. A chance of showers and thunderstorms remains throughout the day. Snow flurries are possible on Wednesday, 2/8 as temperature fall behind the approaching cold front. After that, we return to 60 degrees by Saturday. Here's NWS surface analysis for the next three days:

@ 9:55am 2/3/17

It will be cold today with a high of 31. Temperatures begin to warm up tomorrow from a high of 37 on Saturday to a high of high of 58 on Tuesday. Another shot of cold air arrives on Wednesday, February 8th and lasts until Saturday, February 11th. After that we warm up again. This has been the pattern all winter long.

Also, current radar indicates that there are snow showers moving toward our area. Given that the precipitation is so light and the that the air is so dry, I don' think the snow will reach the ground level but it is showing up on radar.

Is Winter over? No, but the pattern doesn't look favorable for any big snowstorms in the near term.

Happy Groundhog's Day!

I doubt we will see 6 more weeks of winter.

Forecasting 5-6 days out can still turn out wrong.

This,

has turned into this: