SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Severe storms expected to develop and move through central Indiana later tonight and during the overnight, with potential for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. The threat will continue into Wednesday morning until a cold front moves through to bring it to an end. Small chances for rain or snow will be off and on Wednesday night through Friday night for parts of the area, but a warmup will come for the weekend. More rain chances arrive to end the weekend and start the work week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Forecast focus is on severe weather expected tonight-both the threats and the timing. Incredible dynamics are coming into place over the area with a strong upper jet and low level jet forecast to come into phase tonight over the Ohio Valley. While instability could be a somewhat limiting factor given the timing during the night and no sunshine today, moisture return has been ample on southerly flow and dewpoints in the 60s are already making their way into central Indiana. The vertical shear profiles are extremely favorable for rotating storms, and LCLs and LFCs are sufficiently low to not impede tornado development. Best estimate on timing of severe potential for the area at this point is starting around 9pm in the western counties, 10-11 central and midnight or so east. Initially more discrete cells are anticipated that could possibly morph into a line as they move across the area, but some models are also indicating they may keep their more discrete nature. There is also potential after this first batch of storms that another may come behind them in the form of a squall line ahead of the cold front. Given the shear profiles, the tornado threat will continue through the overnight hours, along with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. Also of note...southern counties received a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms already today, with around an inch of rain or more in some locations. With another couple of rounds moving through tonight and ample moisture, see potential for flash flooding and have issued a flash flood watch for that area.
Official statement from the NWS
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