Different apps use different algorithms.
The other night I opened three different weather apps and they had three different temperatures. I found out that different apps use different algorithms to compute their forecasts. If you're interested in the details, it's called numerical weather prediction (NWP) which uses partial differential equations (PDE's).
Analysis of the week and the month ahead.
Today is Sunday 1/28. I can't believe January is almost over. Enjoy today as it will be the last warm day for a while. Today's high will be 51 with sunny skies. Winter returns tomorrow. There's a slight chance of light snow tomorrow between 9:00am and 2:00pm.
Next, all eyes turn towards the Thursday system. This piece of energy is still off the coast of the state of Washington. It will be sampled tomorrow evening and then reliable snow maps will be posted Tuesday. Until then, stay tuned. So far the NWS gives us a 50% -> 80% chance of rain and snow. The high temperature for Thursday is forecast to be 39 so one would think this to be mainly a rain event but again, the exact track of the storm determines whether or not we are on the warm side, the cold side or right in the middle. So far, the current thinking from the NWS is that central Indiana (including us) will be on the warm side of the storm.
.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday Night/... Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2018 Conditions will start out dry very early in the extended period with warm advection on Wednesday. However, the ridge will start to break down by Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure system tracks across Ontario. Rain will start moving into the forecast area by Wednesday evening, gradually transitioning to a rain/snow mix and then snow (north) on Wednesday night. It won`t be until Thursday night when the cold air on the back side really settles into Central Indiana and precipitation falls as snow across the entire forecast area. But by then, the best moisture will already be out of the area, limiting snow totals. Temperatures will be above normal on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 40s as central Indiana falls into the warm sector of aforementioned system. After a day of temperatures close to normal on Thursday, below normal temperatures will return for the second half of the extended period. Overnight lows will dip into the teens on Thursday and Friday nights.
The big story is going to be the return of the cold polar air. Temperatures are likely to trend below normal for much of February. Here's a look at February 5th:
Here's a look at the day before "Single's Awareness Day" which also goes by another commercially driven name:
All in all, February is shaping up to be a cold month with several chances at snow. Stay warm, bundle up, dress in layers and remember to check your car battery. Extremely cold weather uses a lot of cold cranking amps (CCA's). What are CCA's?
Icy and slick this morning in Bloomington
Last night there was a lot of mist and fog that ended of freezing by about 10:00pm. I woke up shortly after sunrise this morning to the sound of light rain but it turned out that is was just the ice melting from the trees and falling onto my rooftop due radiant heating (aka warmth generated by sunlight). Here are some pictures from this morning.
The latest thoughts from the NWS.
&& .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday Night/... Issued at 258 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 The focus of the extended period remains on the upcoming storm late in the week. But first, dry conditions will prevail from Tuesday through Wednesday with high pressure over the region. The ridge will start to break down though on Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure system traverses Ontario. After normal temperatures on Tuesday, Central Indiana will fall into a warm sector on Wednesday with high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 40s. Rain will start moving into the forecast area by Wednesday evening, gradually transitioning to a rain/snow mix and then snow (north) on Wednesday night. High variability remains in snow totals this far out since most of the forecast area will be under a wintry mix for most of the system. It won`t be until Thursday evening when the cold air on the back side really settles into Central Indiana. But by then, the best moisture will already be out of the area, limiting snow totals. However, any shift in the system, could have a huge impact on snow amounts during the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. &&
Beware of snowmageddon images on the internet and especially twitter.
There is too much uncertainty around what will happen February 2nd so beware of seeing images like these. It does not mean this will happen.
Enjoy the sunshine and the warmth today.
Things sure do change quickly. Two weeks ago the models indicated that it would stay warm until mid February (2/15). A week ago the models said it would stay warm until February 6th. Now the models are hinting at a snowstorm for February 1st.
The point is that winter is going to make a comeback by the middle of next week so enjoy this lovely day. Today is going be the best day of the week with sunny skies and a high temperature of 57 degrees. There is a bit of wind but it's not too bad. There are people sitting outside at the Starbucks on South Walnut St.
Here's the latest thinking from the NWS:
The point is that winter is going to make a comeback by the middle of next week so enjoy this lovely day. Today is going be the best day of the week with sunny skies and a high temperature of 57 degrees. There is a bit of wind but it's not too bad. There are people sitting outside at the Starbucks on South Walnut St.
Here's the latest thinking from the NWS:
.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/... Issued at 329 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 Strong ridging and subsidence will strengthen over Central Indiana early in the extended period, resulting in dry conditions from Monday through Wednesday. Would not completely rule out a few rain and rain/snow showers early on Monday as an upper low departs, but latest initialization is trending toward dry conditions. And, confidence is not high enough to deviate from it. Wednesday, warm advection with a front will raise temperatures into the 40s and 50s. Rain will also start spreading across the forecast area from northwest to southeast on Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure system tracks across Ontario. The associated cold front will bring a transition to wintry precipitation by Wednesday night and Thursday. Light snow accumulations may be possible by Thursday, but this is very late in the extended period. So, it will continue to be monitored.
Winter is not over yet!
February is going to be cold. Check out these two meter air temperatures for Monday, February 5, 2018.
Even colder for February 6, 2018.
Even colder for February 6, 2018.
Indiana Traffic and Road Reports
If you would like to know the road and traffic conditions, check the Indiana Department of Transportation website at:
https://indot.carsprogram.org/#roadReports?timeFrame=TODAY&layers=roadReports%2CwinterDriving%2CweatherWarnings%2Cflooding%2CallReports
https://indot.carsprogram.org/#roadReports?timeFrame=TODAY&layers=roadReports%2CwinterDriving%2CweatherWarnings%2Cflooding%2CallReports
Temperature and weather for the rest of today.
Just a quick note about today. Temperatures will only be above freezing for two hours from 2-4pm. After that temperatures fall again. See the hourly chart below with chances for precipitation at the bottom.
Special Weather Statement at 8:12 AM
I would have posted this last night but, it's not my call.
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Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 812 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-241700- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute, Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour 812 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 ...Slick and Icy Roads Continue to Impact Central Indiana Through The Morning... Patchy freezing drizzle overnight and early this morning has caused widespread travel disruptions due to black ice developing on roads...bridges...overpasses and other exposed surfaces. Pockets of freezing drizzle will continue through the morning and with air temperatures remaining in the upper 20s and lower 30s...icy conditions will persist. The morning commute will continue to be impacted as well. Be alert for slick and icy roads through the morning. Allow extra time to reach your destination and reduce your speed.
Slick roads in Bloomington Indiana this morning
I love the National Weather Service and all that they do. On the other hand, I would have posted a Winter Weather Advisory for central and southern Indiana last night for this morning. There were numerous accidents and slide-offs. There are also some delays to report:
Monroe County Community School Corp. schools will operate on a delayed schedule today. Secondary schools will begin at 10:00 a.m. Elementary schools will begin at 11:00 a.m.Milk Matters breastfeeding support group is cancelled today.
So what happened? Talk about a real definition of freezing rain according to the average person; that was what happened. There was light drizzle yesterday that fell in the form of liquid precipitation. As the temperature dropped, that rain froze on cars, trees and surfaces and then the rain changed to sleet. There were some areas of Bloomington where the sleet covered cars and some roads but not so much on the south side of town.
Enjoy the warmth!
Winter is on a two week break and will return on February 5th or 6th. Until then, enjoy the warm weather.
The heat is on!
Seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures are on tap for the next two weeks. I'm keeping an eye on something brewing between January 27 through 29. Other than that, it's going to be fairly quiet. Some rain on Monday. Temperatures in the mid to upper 40's this weekend. Here's the NWS long range discussion:
.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 A strong and occluding low pressure system over Missouri and Iowa will sweep a shield of rain across Indiana Monday. Models still suppress instability in our area and thunder does not seem to be in the picture. A blended solution for rain timing is used as models still differ a bit. The dry slot behind the deep layered moisture may still be showery and somewhat cloudy with a lot of mixing taking place. Model blend temperatures around 50 Monday in clouds and rain appears reasonable. This system through warmth and rain will melt any remaining snow but the wrap around comma head that comes across the area Monday night into early Tuesday may lay down another light blanket of snow. Regardless of any new snow, Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry with near seasonal temperatures and should easily melt any new snow. A return to southwest flow on the backside of high pressure Thursday will continue the dry warmup bringing temperatures above normal with highs in the 40s and lows not far from freezing. The next weather system in line renews a threat for rain showers by late week and the weekend with again a changeover to snow before ending.
Frost quakes shook Indiana!
I've never heard of this before. The scientific name for it is called a "Cryoseism".
Rare frost quakes shook Indiana over the weekend.
http://abc57.com/news/rare-frost-quakes-shook-indiana-over-the-weekend
Rare frost quakes shook Indiana over the weekend.
http://abc57.com/news/rare-frost-quakes-shook-indiana-over-the-weekend
What happened yesterday?
The forecast for Tuesday was for snow flurries but we ended up with light snow showers pretty much all day. The NWS did make an update but I did not have a chance to read it. Here was yesterday's update:
.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/... Issued at 955 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Adjusted mention of flurries to scattered with widespread light echoes noted upstream and made adjustments to better reflect current and expected sky cover the rest of the day into tonight. Wind chill advisory continues through noon. Previous discussion follows. Issued at 620 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Updated to lower minimum wind chills to 20 below per latest obs.
That is what we call an over-achiever
The little clipper that could! Typically clippers that come down from Canada are fast moving type systems that usually drop anywhere from a dusting to three inches. This one is an over-achiever for sure. At 11:50am it is still snowing in Bloomington. The streets are covered and traffic is moving very slowly. Here are some webcam views:
http://webtech.webhost.iu.edu/build/wilkinson/popup.html
http://webtech.webhost.iu.edu/build/ksbiub/popup.html
http://webtech.webhost.iu.edu/build/informatic/popup.html
http://webtech.webhost.iu.edu/build/wilkinson/popup.html
http://webtech.webhost.iu.edu/build/ksbiub/popup.html
http://webtech.webhost.iu.edu/build/informatic/popup.html
What's in our future?
The models seem to indicate kind of a seesaw effect. There will be cold air intrusions followed by brief warm ups followed by more cold air intrusions. I don't see any big storms on the horizon. There are a couple of rain-to-snow events that look likely after the passage of several cold fronts but that's about it. The EURO (European model) is the outlier. It is trying to eject a storm our way January 22 - January 23.
And then there's the EURO
The roads are much better and more snow on the way.
It's 14 degrees in Bloomington as of 11:30am. The main roads are in great shape. Secondary roads are covered a little bit but passable. We will see a high of 22 degrees today. Snow comes back into the forecast after midnight through the noon on Monday MLK Day. According to the NWS expect accumulations of 1-3 inches. Here is the discussion summary:
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 353 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-142300- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute, Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour 353 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 ...Accumulating Snow to return to Central Indiana Late Tonight and Monday Morning... A quick moving cold front is expected to sweep across Central Indiana on late tonight and Monday Morning. Snow accumulations of one to three inches will be possible. Snow will likely be falling during the morning rush hours on Monday. If you plan on traveling on late tonight and Monday Morning...exercise caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.
The Winter Storm Warning Has Expired.
Very cold tonight with a low of 13 degrees. Saturday we will see a high of 22 and low of 3 degrees. The arctic air will make a comeback. We'll also have a clipper snow system for MLK Monday.
EMS and Police sirens just heard near Winslow Rd. and YMCA
We have not had a Winter Storm Warning in Monroe County for 2 years so people are trying to adapt and adjust as best as they can. Please be patient and drive slowly and carefully.
Update for Bloomington Indiana at 4:17pm.
@4:17pm it was snowing very hard with gusty winds at times. The roads are completely covered. Travel warning are going up quickly. This is not a good time to be out on the roads. Monroe County Indiana is under a travel watch.
Remember that we are only half way through the winter storm warning.
The Winter Storm Warning ends at 10:00pm tonight. The roads look passable now but expect conditions to get worse. Here is the official statement from the NWS:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 933 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 INZ061>065-067>072-122245- /O.CON.KIND.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180113T0300Z/ Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin- Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour 933 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation occurring. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute. Additional snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southeast and southwest Indiana. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice are occurring. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest road conditions for Indiana can be obtained by calling 1 800 2 6 1 7 6 2 3
The Public Library is closed today due to the weather.
See note on the right-hand side of the picture.
The roads are covered in Bloomington, Indiana
At about 10:30am the freezing rain changed to sleet. At about 10:50am the sleet changed to snow with some sleet still mixed in. Right now there is light snow falling as I sit inside the Starbucks on S. Walnut.
How to get into an ice covered car.
If you do not do this very carefully, you could damage your car's paint and crack your windows. Use two large pans. Pour warm water from the kitchen sink faucet into two pans. Leave one on the stove on the very lowest setting possible. DO NOT BOIL! Take the first pan out and pour it over the driver's side door cracks. Take that pan back and fill it with more warm water and place it on the stove. Take second pan that had been keeping warm on the stove and pour it over the passenger's side door cracks. Repeat this process as necessary. Again, I stress, do not use 120 degree boiling water.
The NWS has predictions out for the Blomington area.
It looks like we will receive .10 (one tenth) of an inch of ice accumulation and then 2 inches of snow accumulation.
Looks like a very similar setup for January 22 also.
It doesn't mean that this will happen it just means that the pattern looks similar to this weekend's pattern.
Winter Storm Watch Issued for Central Indiana
Okay. Now we can start talking details and amounts and other kinds of specifics.
Here are the watch details:
Here are the watch details:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 339 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 ...Winter Storm may impact Central Indiana... .A winter storm may impact central Indiana on Thursday Night and Friday. Low pressure passing south of Indiana along with the arrival of a cold front may result in freezing rain on late Thursday Night and early Friday before changing over to snow during the day on Friday. The combination of ice from the freezing rain and light snow on Friday may result difficult driving situations. Uncertainty still remains on specific locations and amounts of precipitation. Stay weather aware the next few days. INZ037>042-046>049-053>057-061>065-067>072-110445- /O.NEW.KIND.WS.A.0001.180112T0600Z-180113T0600Z/ Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Hendricks-Marion- Hancock-Henry-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Greene-Monroe-Brown- Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour 339 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, southeast, southwest and west central Indiana. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through late Friday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. $$
Friday Saturday event Part 2
The computer models have moved the storm to our north, to our west and to our south and now, today it has moved it to our east. A storm is coming but there is still no definite path of certainty yet.
This weekend storm threat Friday 1/12 - Saturday 1/13
It's way too early to say anything about this expect two models agree on a storm system moving through the Ohio Valley. Stay tuned...
This is not a forecast. It's just one model's idea of what *might* happen.
This is not a forecast. It's just one model's idea of what *might* happen.
Final thoughts on Sunday - Monday wintry mix.
When I woke up this morning there were minor ice accumulations on the ground and since it only takes a very small amount of ice to cause accidents; it was a good idea for the NWS to issue a an advisory. On the other hand, it was warmer than expected and we received mostly rain here in Bloomington.
It's pretty much over.
@12:50am there's still heavy rain in Bloomington Indiana. Expect light snow showers from 3am-6am and then we gradually warm up and then cool down for the weekend.
Wow, it's been a fun ride.
Wow, it's been a fun ride.
Heavy rain in Bloomington, Indiana @12:30am.
Well, at least we dodged a bullet on this one. I think the NWS (National Weather Service) should cancel the winter weather advisory for our area. I don't see much happening past 2:00am except a brief period of snow showers with very little accumulation. This is almost over.
My personal observation in Bloomington, Indiana @11:30pm
I just went outside and looked around. It sounds and feels like rain to me. I didn't see any slick spots. We got very lucky and today's warm air advection plus the solar radiation (aka sunshine) helped us out. We got lucky.
Is it snowing it your neighborhood?
As a kid growing up, I used to wonder if it ever snowed in one neighborhood and not in an adjoining neighborhood. These radar returns take me back to that memory.
There will be lots of pontificating tomorrow is this turns out to be true.
What if this is true? There is no ice and just rain that changes to snow at 3:00am with minor accumulations?
Warm air is winning out so far, can it last?
I just took a look outside and it appears to be just rain only. I checked the NWS site and saw and interesting post from the National Weather Service. I've never seen a forecast that said "Unknown Precip" before.
INDOT has surface temps slightly higher than mine but only 2 degrees above freezing.
It's currently 6:00pm and INDOT (Indiana Department of Transportation) has two road temperature sensors in Bloomington indicating that road temps are at 34 degrees. Those will likely fall. As I'm typing this I can hear police, fire and ems sirens getting louder and louder so accidents must be happening already. Please be careful.
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