Cold until Friday.

It was 11 degrees this morning on my drive into town.

It's going to be cold until Friday. On Friday, Saturday and Sunday the high temperatures will be around 40 degrees. That could also change depending on how much snow we get.

There's a 50% chance of snow tonight after 10pm. There's a better chance for snow Tuesday night. The chance stands at 80% so that is likely to happen.

As for the long term, the models are in disagreement over how long the cold sticks around. The Canadian model keeps us cold until February 15th. The American model has warming up around February 9th and up to 70 degrees by February 13th. The Euro is suggesting warm air arrives by the February 15th. Another model called the (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model Analysis) or ICON has it cold until February 13th.

Here's how the NWS sees things:

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 210 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018

Surface analysis early this morning shows arctic high pressure
centered over Missouri. Cold NW flow was in place across Indiana.
GOES16 showed some lake cloud steaming off of Lake Michigan and a
few associated flurries within that flow had made their way to
parts of eastern central Indiana. Water Vapor imagery shows mainly
a quick NW flow in place...with the next wave entering the western
plains.

Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column today along
with subsidence. Models suggest that the surface high over
Missouri will quickly pass across Kentucky and Southern Indiana.
Thus with plenty of dry air and subsidence in place...only a few
high clouds will be expected within the quick flow aloft. THus
partly cloudy should work fine.

Flurries from last night and the ongoing cold air advection may
still result in some slick spots early this morning on untreated
surfaces...will continue to mention with an SPS this morning.

Temperature wise...cold air advection continues through mid
day...before the high quickly shifts east of Indiana and flow
becomes more southerly. Given our cold start this morning and cold
air advection for much of the day...will still trend highs at or
below the forecast builder blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Issued at 210 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2018

GFS and NAm suggest a quick moving short wave...currently entering
the western plains to arrive across Indiana this evening. Forecast
sounding quickly saturated this evening in response to this wave
and Time heights show good saturation aloft...but limited
moisture within the lower levels. At the surface...a poorly
defined cusp area looks to pass across the area. Thus confidence
for precip is a bit low with this system as the lower levels seem
ill defined and the models continue to have a bit of trouble
handling the upper waves. Furthermore...the dry air within the
lower levels did in our last system...and the dry within the lower
levels is expected to be back as dew points in the single digits
or less are the rule across the area. Thus will trend pops tonight
at or below the forecast builder blend with low confidence. Given
the SW lower level flow...warm air advection and clouds
expected...will trend lows at or above forecast builder blends.

Another large and quick moving high pressure system will push
across the area on Tuesday. Time heights showing dry air within
the column once again...but this time some lower lever moisture
looks trapped within the cold air advection. This moisture looks
to mix out by late in the day. Thus morning clouds should be
giving way to some afternoon peeks of sun. Will trend highs on
Tuesday at or below the forecast builder blends given the ongoing
cold air advection.

A stronger and more organized short wave trough looks to push
toward Indiana on Late Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this
point...a more favorable set-up for precipitation appears as the
flow aloft ahead of the wave becomes SWerly...allowing a surge of
moisture into the Ohio Valley. Lower levels also set up a bit
more organized as a frontal boundary across Kentucky and Tennessee
shows a sharp gradient and an focus area for lower level
convergence. Forecast soundings show good saturation and moisture
during the overnight period and on early Wednesday. Better
chances look to exist farther south on Tuesday Night and
Wednesday...closer to the frontal boundary area of focus. Overall
however...confidence in the models is low due to the poor
performance as of late. Thus will stick close to the forecast
builder blend for now...taking the wait and see approach.

By Wednesday Night...the models suggest High pressure and
subsidence return to Central Indiana as the short wave aloft and
associated trough aloft exit to the east and push the frontal
boundary farther southeast. Thus will trend toward partly cloudy
skies and trend lows at or below the forecast builder blends given
the cold air advection and NW lower level flow.

&&

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