.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/ Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. The surge of colder air aloft and the upper wave will still be influencing the area at the start of the Tonight period. The NAM and short term hi-res models focus the best precipitation chances across the northern and central forecast area early in the period with the global models farther south. The NAM has strong frontogenesis across the Interstate 70 corridor at 00Z, while the RAP and GFS weaker and farther south. If the NAM ends up being right, this could create some banded heavier precipitation in the colder air, which would lead to a quick couple of inches of snow for parts of the I-70 corridor. With most models, including the SREF mean, keeping the best forcing to the south, will not buy into the NAM solution at this time. Will have to keep an eye on how things develop though. By sticking with the other models, will go high chance to low likely category PoPs this evening across the south, diminishing overnight. Precipitation type looks to be a mix of rain and snow south, with some snow central and north. Went with a dusting for much of the southern half of the area, with perhaps up to a half an inch some areas farther south. Cold high pressure will build in for Saturday and Saturday night, keeping conditions dry. A low pressure system will move into the area Sunday afternoon and night, bringing more rain and snow. There is the potential for 1-2 inches of snow for some areas with this system. Winter will just not give up. The model blend looks reasonable for temperatures. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018 A fairly active period is expected through the long term, with weak systems bringing chances for precip early in the week and then again later in the week. Rain chances will increase and temperatures will warm significantly later in the period as a stronger low pressure system organizes near the end of the long term, placing the area solidly in the warm sector. While this may bring a brief period of the sorely missed warmth from this unsatisfying spring, guidance beyond the period suggests this will be only temporary. Blended initialization required relatively few minor tweaks.
A brief warm spell and back to colder than normal temperatures.
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