Severe weather potential for Monday into Tuesday

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

As an upper trough digs into the northwestern USA, southerly flow
aloft will increase across central Indiana. This will bring more
moisture along with forcing from individual impulses moving through
the flow.

By Tuesday night, the upper trough will be approaching the area
along with a surface cold front.

The result of all of this will be likely PoPs at times through the
short term period.

Precipitable water values will increase to potentially 1.5 to 2
inches, which is quite high for this time of year. Thus some locally
heavy rain is possible, mainly across the southern forecast area
where the higher values will be.

Will also have to watch out for the potential for a few strong
storms at times, depending on whether enough instability can build.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the area in a
Marginal Risk Monday.

The model blend`s temperatures look reasonable given expected
conditions.