If you're an old guy like me, you might want to get some ice cleats this year. These help prevent falls and injuries.
One good thing about ice and snow is that it put these guys out of business. (hopefully)
Early morning thoughts.
There's some ice on the grass and sidewalks in Bloomington but streets seem fine. There's also ice on cars but it is fairly easy to clean off.
If you're an old guy like me, you might want to get some ice cleats this year. These help prevent falls and injuries.
One good thing about ice and snow is that it put these guys out of business. (hopefully)
If you're an old guy like me, you might want to get some ice cleats this year. These help prevent falls and injuries.
One good thing about ice and snow is that it put these guys out of business. (hopefully)
The wild weather will continue
There's a chance for some light ice /freezing rain between 5:00am and 9:00am Thursday morning. You'll want to give yourself an extra 30 minutes before leaving for work.
There will be rain Friday and maybe even a thunderstorm Saturday with a high of 63 degrees. Check out how impressive this storm is. At certain points it moves backwards twice.
After this, it's back to cold rain and snow for next week. See the video below for an explanation.
There will be rain Friday and maybe even a thunderstorm Saturday with a high of 63 degrees. Check out how impressive this storm is. At certain points it moves backwards twice.
After this, it's back to cold rain and snow for next week. See the video below for an explanation.
Wild Weather in Bloomington.
It wasn't supposed to snow this morning and yet it's been snowing non-stop since 7:00am. It's going to warm up later this week but know one seems know what the high temperature will be this coming Saturday. There's a range of 53 to 63 degrees.
What a difference 24 hours can make.
Yesterday at 1:53pn it was sunny and 62 degrees and now at 11:08am it's 32 degrees and snowing. Good ol Indiana weather.
The Seesaw effect.
High temperatures will warm into the lower 50's by this weekend. Next week cold air will return with a chance for snow. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. That will be the seesaw-like pattern for the next few weeks and throughout the month of December. See if you can spot the examples of the "Seesaw Effect" below.
Look at that pink stuff! (Above)
Up and down.
Up and down again.
Rain from coast to coast north to south
Freezing temperatures into southern Alabama.
Our old friend from early October is trying to make a comeback.
Remember the southeast ridge that kept pumping in the heat during the first 10 days of October? Take a look at this temperature forecast for Sunday, November 25th.
Ice Storm Warning is in place in Bloomington until 12:00pm noon.
I just drove into town and the roads are in excellent condition because the road temperatures are between 36 and 38. There's lots of ice on trees, cars, power-lines and other objects.
Ice will change to all snow by 1:00pm today but I wouldn't expect too much more snow. The heaviest of the precipitation is off to our east. We are still in the center of the storm but the back side of storm does not have as much moisture as the front side. Classic rotated comma shape.
Also, there's another chance of ice Sunday evening into Sunday night. High temperatures will remain in the low 40's through Tuesday and them we begin a brief warming trend towards Thanksgiving.
Ice will change to all snow by 1:00pm today but I wouldn't expect too much more snow. The heaviest of the precipitation is off to our east. We are still in the center of the storm but the back side of storm does not have as much moisture as the front side. Classic rotated comma shape.
Also, there's another chance of ice Sunday evening into Sunday night. High temperatures will remain in the low 40's through Tuesday and them we begin a brief warming trend towards Thanksgiving.
#IDTP
I just made that up for "I Decline to Ponder / Pontificate". That's how I feel about the current system to our south. The storm system is so complex that forecasts range from all rain to nearly six inches of snow and everything in between with a mix of rain, sleet, snow and ice.
Why is it so complex to figure out? Because it is a cut-off low pressure system that is cut off from the jet stream or an attached cold front, it can meander in just about any direction it wants to. Yeah, it sounds like it has a mind of its own. Usually the upper level jet stream or, a warm front (mainly in summer) or, a cold front are the main drivers that push storms from west to east and south to north. That will eventually happen in this case but not before it wobbles around. As is wobbles around, it changes the temperature and precipitation on the east and west side of the wobble. Okay. I hope that's helpful.
Here's the current thinking from the NWS:
Why is it so complex to figure out? Because it is a cut-off low pressure system that is cut off from the jet stream or an attached cold front, it can meander in just about any direction it wants to. Yeah, it sounds like it has a mind of its own. Usually the upper level jet stream or, a warm front (mainly in summer) or, a cold front are the main drivers that push storms from west to east and south to north. That will eventually happen in this case but not before it wobbles around. As is wobbles around, it changes the temperature and precipitation on the east and west side of the wobble. Okay. I hope that's helpful.
Here's the current thinking from the NWS:
.SYNOPSIS... Issued at 219 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 High Pressure in place across Illinois will push across Indiana today bringing dry and cool weather today. Strong Low pressure is expected to build across the deep south tonight and push north across Kentucky and Tennessee. As the low approaches...wintry precipitation is expected to across Indiana on Thursday. This will result in some accumulating snow on Thursday along with the possibility of some freezing rain. The Low will quickly depart on Thursday night...ending the precipitation and bringing dry weather for Friday and Friday Night. Another weak cold front will sweep across Central Indiana on Saturday which could bring more light precipitation along followed by more cold weather for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 1041 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 Not much change to ongoing forecast. Did increase cloud cover across the southern half of the forecast area to account for a more invasive shield of mid to upper level clouds as the upper- level system over the Arklatex region heads our way during the day today. The northern edge of the mid to low deck associated with this approaching system is currently located over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Expect the cloudiness to continue across much of central Indiana today...especially over the southern half of the area. Minor changes to temps but kept highs in the middle 30s going...as there was no appreciable change to the forecast that would warrant an increase or decrease there. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/... Issued at 219 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 The GFS and Nam suggest a strong Cut-off Low lifting out of the plume of tropical moisture to the south and pushing toward and across Tennessee and Kentucky late tonight through Thursday. Strong indicators of plentiful moisture appear in place given the flow aloft. Excellent forcing appears in place as the low approaches and forecast soundings respond showing deep saturation through the day on Thursday. Top-down methods suggest some freezing rain will be possible on onset...particularly across the southern half of the forecast area as moisture arrives. Given the favorable expected path of the upper low...confidence is high for precip however confidence remains low on amounts and type. At a minimum...winter weather advisories will likely be needed and possibly more across the south where ice may mix in. Thus will stick close to the forecast builder blends pops tonight but trend toward 100 pops on Thursday. Furthermore will trend lows warmer and highs cooler than the blends given the expected clouds and precip. Best forcing exits the area quickly on Thursday night as the upper low departs the area to the northeast. Dry air arrives overnight as the Low reaches the middle Atlantic states. Although some lingering precip could still be present the first few hours after 00Z...the trend will be toward drying out. Forecast soundings show drying and subsidence within the column. Thus may keep a few pops across the east as the system departs but will overall trend toward a becoming partly cloudy and dry forecast. Given the possible snow on the ground and expected cold air advection will trend lows cooler than the blends. High pressure over the deep south on Friday and Friday night will nose north into the Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings and mid level guidance shows dry air and subsidence. Will trend toward a partly cloudy day and temps at or below the model blends. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... Issued at 232 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 Ensembles are in good agreement in keeping broad upper troughing over the Midwest and East Coast during this period. There are still timing differences among the individual members as to a weak short wave trough that is expected to move through the area over the weekend. There continues to be a rather wide spread among the ensembles with respect to the timing of the precipitation threat with the weekend disturbance, anywhere from during the day Saturday to as late as Sunday night. Don`t see any real trends yet one way or another, so for now will go with chance PoPs for light mixed precipitation at times from Saturday through Sunday night. Precipitation amounts with this system still look to be on the light side.
Snow or no snow?
@7:53pm
The radar shows that there's snow over Bloomington right now but nothing is falling outside.
The air is just too dry for for snow. Look at this sounding:
The farther apart the green line is from the red line means the drier the atmosphere is. The closer together they are, the more saturated the atmosphere is. 15km is 9 miles up in the air. 0km is at ground level. So, between 0 and 3km; the air nearest the ground is very dry and snow is likely evaporating before it hits the ground.
The radar shows that there's snow over Bloomington right now but nothing is falling outside.
The air is just too dry for for snow. Look at this sounding:
The farther apart the green line is from the red line means the drier the atmosphere is. The closer together they are, the more saturated the atmosphere is. 15km is 9 miles up in the air. 0km is at ground level. So, between 0 and 3km; the air nearest the ground is very dry and snow is likely evaporating before it hits the ground.
Did you see it?
Last night around 8:00pm there were light snow flurries. By 10:00pm there were snow showers for an hour. I would say this makes November 9th 2018 the first official day for a sticking snow in the fall season. Here's a picture from this morning.
Next, all eyes turn to Monday night as there is an 80% chance of snow falling after 9:00pm. I don't think anyone knows the exact amounts just yet but my guess is anywhere from 1-3 inches.
This pattern will slowly oscillate into a warmer pattern by the week of Thanksgiving. By then we could be seeing high temperature in the mid 50's.
Here's to the brave men and the crew of the "Big Fitz". Today is the anniversary of disappearance of the Edmund Fitzgerald.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vST6hVRj2A
Next, all eyes turn to Monday night as there is an 80% chance of snow falling after 9:00pm. I don't think anyone knows the exact amounts just yet but my guess is anywhere from 1-3 inches.
This pattern will slowly oscillate into a warmer pattern by the week of Thanksgiving. By then we could be seeing high temperature in the mid 50's.
Here's to the brave men and the crew of the "Big Fitz". Today is the anniversary of disappearance of the Edmund Fitzgerald.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vST6hVRj2A
Tomorrow's snow event.
It looks like the rain /snow line will set up just north of I-70. The northern half of Indiana will see snow overnight into tomorrow morning while the southern half will see mostly rain with a few flurries as the front moves by tomorrow afternoon.
Good news and bad news.
Perhaps I should say bad news and good news. It's going to be downright cold for the next eight days. There's also several chances for snow throughout the eight day period. The coldest day /night combo looks like next Tuesday with a high of 34 and a low of 19. That's probably bad news for most people unless you are a #BOTS fan.
The good news is that all the models are in agreement that we will warm up during that last week of November into the first week of December. By warm I mean temperatures in the mid 50's again.
In the mean time, stay warm and have your car battery tested. Auto Zone on 2437 W. 3rd street will test your battery for free. (No they are not paying me to say that!)
"AutoZone 2437 W 3rd St in Bloomington, IN is your go-to destination for quality aftermarket auto parts, do-it-yourself repair advice and tools, and everything you need to keep your car, truck or SUV running smoothly. Every AutoZone in Bloomington, IN offers free in-store Battery Testing, Battery Charging, Oil Recycling, our Loan-A-Tool® Program and Fix Finder - a simple Check Engine light tool that utilizes an extensive database from ASE certified mechanics to find the most likely fix."
https://www.autozone.com/locations/in/bloomington/2437-w-3rd-st.html
The good news is that all the models are in agreement that we will warm up during that last week of November into the first week of December. By warm I mean temperatures in the mid 50's again.
In the mean time, stay warm and have your car battery tested. Auto Zone on 2437 W. 3rd street will test your battery for free. (No they are not paying me to say that!)
"AutoZone 2437 W 3rd St in Bloomington, IN is your go-to destination for quality aftermarket auto parts, do-it-yourself repair advice and tools, and everything you need to keep your car, truck or SUV running smoothly. Every AutoZone in Bloomington, IN offers free in-store Battery Testing, Battery Charging, Oil Recycling, our Loan-A-Tool® Program and Fix Finder - a simple Check Engine light tool that utilizes an extensive database from ASE certified mechanics to find the most likely fix."
https://www.autozone.com/locations/in/bloomington/2437-w-3rd-st.html
#BOTS!
Snow is on the way! Bloomington will see it's first snow of the fall season on Thursday night overnight into Friday morning. The NWS is calling it a rain /snow mix.
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/... Issued at 307 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 Dry conditions are expected tonight with surface high pressure building into the area. Should be noted even though majority of guidance has the area dry tonight, the NAM bring some small QPF amounts to the area late tonight. Still think moderate confidence in dry conditions, but not willing to go high on that. Dry weather is then the rule until Thursday night when the next low pressure system approaches. This system will also bring colder air with it, and should see a changeover from rain to snow late Thursday night as well but no accumulation is expected. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued at 237 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018 Surface high pressure to the southwest will largely be the dominant force during the long term period. A departing low pressure system may result in some light precip Friday morning, but this will quickly move out. Models indicate a clipper type system may move through the Great Lakes late in the weekend, but at this time they keep precipitation largely north of central Indiana. That said, this will bear watching, as these systems often can squeeze out surprise precipitation. Blended initialization handled things relatively well and required only minor adjustments.
#BOTS!
I guess you've heard the rumor by now. We might see our first snow next weekend. It's still to early to tell but it does look likely and after all, it is November.
But before we get to that we have to deal with more rain. Rain returns Sunday night. Strong storms are possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A cold front passes by on Thursday. Friday's high temperature will be 44 degrees.
Here's the analysis from the NWS:
But before we get to that we have to deal with more rain. Rain returns Sunday night. Strong storms are possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A cold front passes by on Thursday. Friday's high temperature will be 44 degrees.
Here's the analysis from the NWS:
.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018 Long term period looks to begin with the second and stronger in a series of low pressure systems quickly moving northeast from the Chicago area through the Great Lakes, with another round of rainfall expected to continue into Tuesday and begin ramping down Tuesday night. The next system to develop along the large scale baroclinic zone looks to slide eastward into the area and then pull northeast late in the week as the larger scale upper level troughing strengthens and drops into the Great Lakes, bringing with it what may be the first real cold blast of the season. This may have the potential to produce a few snowflakes as precipitation winds down next Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures will be on a steady cooling trend throughout the period, with the coolest temperatures arriving toward the end of the period. Blended initialization handled things well enough and only a few minor adjustments were required.
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