.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday Night/... Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 Wet. Moist. Soaking. Did I say Moist? Moist and wet weather is expected to start of this period as the ECMWF suggests a very active weather pattern starting on Friday. Aloft...a deep trough of low pressure is expected to be digging through the American southwest...resulting in a SW flow of warm and moist air that will flow into the Ohio Valley. Gulf Moisture will be available on Friday as the departing surface high pressure provided strong southerly flow. The ECMWF suggests a frontal boundary setting up on Friday across Michigan and Illinois...putting Central Indiana in the warm (and moist) sector. Several short waves are then suggested to push through the Ohio valley on Friday through Saturday...providing forcing with the moist air mass. Forecast soundings shows pwats over 1 inch...very high for this time of year. Thus we have trended toward categorical pops on Friday through Saturday as rain looks like a certainty. Flooding may result and we will continue highlighting this via ESF for now. With FROPA on Saturday will look for steady or slowly falling temps through the day...with highs occurring early. The cold front and surface low pressure system is expected to depart on Saturday Night...allowing some dry air to arrive on NW flow. This should result in some dry weather for Sunday. Another warn front and warm and moist southerly flow is expected to return on Monday into Monday Night ahead of yet another short wave aloft. Thus will allow pops to return to the forecast then.
Warm and rainy this week.
Well, I guess I shouldn't say warm. It will be warmer than average for January though. This current weather pattern we are in is a perfect scenario for an ice storm of the century at some point. Here is what the NWS has to say:
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