Tree pollen is back but a little later than last year.

You might see green treen pollen on your car the next few days. It can cause allergies for some people so please be alert.

ALWAYS be safe and ALWAYS listen to weather warnings! (Like ALWAYS!)

Another terrible tragedy happened in Australia in which a person drowned on a kayak a few days ago. DO NOT go kayaking when the weather professionals issue alerts for bad weather. Please don't do it.

The weather agencies in Australia said this:

A tweet by the Bureau of Meteorology in New South Wales warned locals of “a monster southerly swell up to 4 to 5 metres and strong winds,” encouraging people to stay away from rock ledges and check their skill level before going into the water.

That afternoon, the organization called beach conditions “dangerous,” citing “damaging surf” and “damaging wind” in the area.On Sunday, the New South Wales police released a statement regarding the suspected drowning death of a man believed to be age 43. The man was pronounced dead at the scene on the state’s south coast.

https://www.facebook.com/jeremy.worthy.12/videos/291233838586892/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYE2rX0rkUA

Smooth sailing ahead!

After three weeks of boring weather, there were spectacular storms clouds this evening. I'm not sure how many people noticed because it happened so quickly. Here are my pictures from the south side of  Bloomington near Bloomington South High School, Dairy Queen and Winslow Road.

The latest radar image as of 10:00pm shows this:

After tonight and tomorrow we return to a very quiet and boring pattern.

I'm sorry for not giving an update for so long but the weather pattern we are in is very boring. When is the last time someone heard a tornado siren in Monroe County? Was it last fall?

Here is what the National Weather Service office out of Indianapolis has to say:

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

Showers with isolated thunderstorms will move in to the region
this evening and will continue overnight. By tomorrow morning
shower coverage will increase and move towards the southeast.
Additional development of thunderstorms is possible tomorrow
afternoon. By Friday night, dry and cool conditions will settle
in and remain through the weekend. For next week, central Indiana
will be positioned is a warm but relatively dry pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

Scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms continued to
push across the southeastern half of central Indiana this evening.
This activity will continue to move east, so adjusted PoPs to
reflect this. Meanwhile, another line of convection back across
eastern Illinois looks to impact the northwest forecast area soon.
Tweaked existing PoPs for this line.

Convection should diminish some as heating is lost, but it shouldn`t
go away completely with the upper trough nearby and a cold front
approaching during the night.

Not expecting any severe storms, but heavy rain and gusty winds
remain possible this evening.

Adjusted current temperatures as needed based on latest
observations. Only needed to make minor adjustments to overnight
lows.

Previous discussion follows...

Clouds are moving off to the north, providing periods of sunshine
and partly cloudy skies for portions of central Indiana.
Conditions look to remain dry for the majority of region this
afternoon and into the evening, prior to the emergence of a weak
wave from the west. Lingering boundaries created by this morning`s
precipitation may initiate isolated regions of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon near the western Indiana border,
therefor PoPs have been slightly increased towards the west.

Dew points in the mid 60s will provide sufficient moisture for
shower development late this evening as lift increases with the
impending wave. CAPE values above 1500 J/kg should also be enough
to initiate isolated convective clusters within these rain
showers. However, the lack of resemblance of any jets aloft will
hinder thunderstorm development and any updrafts that become
robust should diminish relatively quickly. A thunderstorm with
temporary small hail and gusty winds is possible this evening, but
severe thunderstorms will be unlikely.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the overnight
hours, and should start to curtail as the wave moves east of the
region. Clouds should extend throughout central Indiana, limiting
diurnal cooling and keeping overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

By Friday morning, an upper level trough will approach Indiana, and
with it a distinguished surface trough. Ahead of this trough,
scattered to numerous showers will be present. Isolated convection
is possible in the morning, but lapse rates will be limited given
non-peak diurnal warming. Showers will be scattered during the
morning hours in NW central Indiana.  These showers will slowly move
from WNW to ESE during the day. During the afternoon, as surface
temperatures increase, convective lines may develop out ahead of a
frontogenetical region. Increased thunderstorm development should be
isolated to southeast portions of central Indiana, where the front
is not expected to move through until earlier in the evening. Any
variation in the progression of this front will alter where
initiation will occur. Surface winds will increase ahead of the
surface trough as the day progresses. Some regions, specifically
towards the southeast, may experience brief non-thunderstorm
inducing wind gusts greater than 20 mph.

By Friday night, the upper level trough should be east of Indiana
and a cooler air mass will settle into the region. Given decreased
cloud cover and moderate cold air advection, temperatures were
lowered slightly against model progs. Expect overnight lows to be in
the low 50s. The remainder of the weekend will stay cooler than
normal with highs in the low 70s. The presence of fairly robust
surface high pressure, and a broad ridge aloft keep conditions
dry with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

Upper level ridging will move in at the start of the period as
northwesterly flow begins to end and temperatures warm. Much of
the period is expected to be dry with small chances for rain and
thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday as a weak wave rides the
upper level ridge. Best chances look to be across the northern
counties at this time. A stronger wave arrives by midweek bringing
better chances for rain and storms with potential of a complex of
thunderstorms in that timeframe. Severe weather threats don`t
look too high right now, but will be dependent on the timing of
the system. The potential is also there for much of the area to
see 90 degrees on Wednesday assuming the upper level wave tracks
as currently expected.

Temperatures will begin the period near to below average before
quickly warming to above average the middle of next week.

&&

Warmer tomorrow and a chance of storms.

80 degrees tomorrow with a 50% chance of thunderstorms.

Hurricane season officially starts on June 1st but there will be some tropical activity showing up on Sunday and Monday.

Other than that, there's not much else going on. It's a fairly quiet pattern with rain and some thunderstorms but nothing too severe.

Here are the national trends for temperature and precipitation:

Here is the latest from the NWS:

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020

The thick cloud shield present north of a warm front from the
southern Plains into the Tennessee valley continues to expand
northeast across the forecast area slowly. Areas north and east of a
LAfayette-New Castle line were enjoying a nice but breezy day with
abundant sunshine and temperatures in the mid 60s. Over the rest of
the forecast area...skies were cloudy with temperatures largely in
the 50s. A few light showers continue southeast of the Indy metro.

The isentropic lift that is assisting with the light showers will
shift east of the area later this afternoon which should further
minimize any showers coverage to isolated at best into the evening.
The focus will then shift towards the approaching warm front which
will lift across the forecast area overnight. Additional isentropic
lift will develop and focus over northern counties as the night
progresses...otherwise any scattered convection is likely to be
dependent on increasing warm advection with the bulk of the better
forcing to the northwest of the region. Will focus highest pops in
the 06-12Z window as the front lifts through the region.

Temps...temperatures are not likely to fall back much this evening
with perhaps the exception of the northeast where temperatures may
peak in the upper 60s to even near 70 late today before dropping
back. As the front passes from south to north late tonight...may see
temps rise several degrees prior to daybreak. Mid 50s a good bet for
lows and that is handled well by guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Friday Night/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020

Forecast challenges focus on chances for rain and storms throughout
the period as a frontal boundary becomes quasi-stationary over the
Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes.

The warm front will shift north into the Great Lakes on Thursday as
ridging aloft becomes firmly established across the region and
finally...finally brings Spring back to central Indiana after being
gone for the last 10 days or so. A noticeably warmer and more humid
airmass will settle into the forecast area south of the boundary on
Thursday. Could still see lingering scattered convection Thursday
morning before activity shifts away to the north with the boundary.
Potential exists for some sunshine into the afternoon and with a
strong S/SW flow...expect temperatures to skyrocket across the
forecast area. Potential for scattered convection to redevelop once
again in the afternoon but expect any storms to be largely dependent
on available instability and steepening lapse rates through the
boundary layer. The primary low level jet will remain focused to the
northwest closer to the surface wave tracking into the western Great
Lakes and should limit convective coverage into the evening over the
forecast area.

Robust linear convection is likely to develop ahead of the front
extending from northern Illinois back into the central/southern
Plains by Thursday evening. The frontal boundary will sag into the
region from the northwest late Thursday night likely bringing the
remnants of this convective line into the forecast area in a
weakened state. A strengthening low level jet nosing into the area
should be able to maintain convection all night but With just
elevated instability present...expect storms to be largely subsevere
with gusty winds...small hail and heavy rainfall as the primary
threats.

Even as the low level jet moves away to the east on Friday...the
front will lag back across central Indiana for much of the day. With
plentiful low level moisture and about 1000-1500 j/kg MLCAPE...
expect widespread showers and storms periodically throughout the
day. Categorical pops are warranted with a gradual shift south into
the afternoon and evening as the front presses south. Models are now
in good agreement on the front settling south of the Ohio River by
early Saturday as weak high pressure over the Great Lakes advects
drier and slightly cooler air into the forecast area.

Temps...strong warm advection...some sunshine and breezy SW flow all
support going above guidance for highs in most areas Thursday.
Expect upper 70s and lower 80s across the forecast area. The
combination of rain and clouds will keep temps lower Friday but
should still see low to mid 70s in many locations. Utilized a model
blend for lows Thursday and Friday night. Expect low to mid 60s
Thursday night with slightly cooler air Friday night enabling a drop
into the mid and upper 50s over the northern half of the forecast
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 13 2020

Temperatures look to remain similar for the weekend with highs in
the 70s and dew points in the low 60s. Overnight Saturday, another
weak boundary will progress through, bringing in showers from
west to east. Current timing of the surface low is variable. It
looks likely that some rain will reach western portions of central
Indiana by Saturday evening. Lower confidence in rain to the
north and east for much of Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms
look likely on Sunday along a quickly progressing cold front.
Further updates will aid in pinpointing this weekends rain
chances. A period of dry weather does look possible this weekend
before and after the trough moves through.

Most showers throughout the weekend will be convective in nature
given the high surface moisture and decent mid level lapse rates.
Weak upper level forcing and shear should limit updraft longevity
and therefor lightning. However, instability will be sufficient
for convective development, and any sustained updraft will likely
be associated with some lightning. For now, the greatest threat
for thunderstorms during the long term looks to be Saturday night
and Sunday as a better area of low-level dynamics looks to promote
updraft development.

For Monday, a cooler airmass will build in leading to highs in the
mid 60s and overnight lows near 50. By Tuesday however, temperatures
look to return into the 70s. Some lingering moisture may wrap around
bringing slight chances for rain to the north. High pressure will
bring drier conditions for the rest of the long term.

Today's storm produced a small amount of hail.

Just about all of the thunderstorms we've had this have produced some hail. Fascinating.

.NEAR TERM (Rest of This Afternoon through Monday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020

Thunderstorms continue to develop along a boundary across the
southern forecast area this afternoon. Will have likely PoPs mid-
afternoon, diminishing later this afternoon as the front begins
to move away.

Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance was bringing mainly
sprinkles to Illinois. These sprinkles will move into central
Indiana soon and then persist into early evening. Will have slight
chance PoPs to cover them. (Dewpoints are coming down, so some of
the rain should evaporate, especially north where dewpoints are
lowest).

After 01Z or so the entire area should be dry. High pressure will
build in and allow skies to become mostly clear overnight. These
conditions will continue into Monday morning.

Clouds will then increase as another system approaches the area.
For now it appears that any rain will hold off until after 00Z
Tuesday, but it will be close in the far southwestern portions of
the area.

The NBM temperatures look a bit warm tonight given clearing skies
and the colder air moving in. Lowered them a bit. The NBM looks
reasonable for highs on Monday given the expected conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday Night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020

A warm front, followed by a low pressure system moving up the Ohio
Valley, and then an upper level wave trailing from the northwest,
will bring showers to the area, particularly Monday night into
Tuesday, with lower chances Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Lowered blend temperatures on Tuesday in collab with neighbors.
Otherwise blend looked reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020

The next chance for showers will come late Thursday night into
Friday with another upper level wave, then there will be another
dry period before a third slightly more organized disturbance
requires precip chances Sunday.

Blend temperatures generally appeared reasonable, although
depending on which model solution verifies expect these may trend
gradually colder, especially toward the end of the period. May see
one or more opportunities for overnight frost headlines late in
the long term period.