Old lessons learned again.

What a difference three days can make. On Wednesday everyone was nearly sure of a blizzard and +6 inches of snow would hit Indiana and now we are lucky to get one inch of snow. The storm shifted to the east and will hit Ohio and Pennsylvania. 

This is a classic case to help remind you that storms are not predictable until 48 hours in advance. Long range forecasts of 5 or 7 or 10 days out are unreliable and especially in the winter.

To the people that watch computer models, remember that they are only guidance, not forecasts.

Here is a snow map that has Bloomington with less than one inch. Ha! Three days ago we were supposed to get 6 inches of snow. 

Ha! Computer models shift storm to the east.

Just as I thought. The "Blizzard" that people were talking about on twitter two days ago has shifted east into Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Blizzard talk is highly irresponsible.

If you've lived in Indiana long, you know that the weather changes frequently here. It's highly chaotic. Nothing is a 100% sure bet. That's the main reason I love talking about the weather. Let's wait and see what the computer models say tomorrow; likely sunny and a heat wave.

Notice the caveat at the top:

No snow until mid December.

 

Did you hear about a chance of wintry mix tonight?

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
541 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-241045-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
541 AM EST Mon Nov 23 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Chance of a light wintry mix in some areas late tonight.

Hazards: Wet roads.

Timing: After 2 AM.

Discussion: There will be a chance for precipitation late tonight,
some of which could fall as a wintry mix in spots. Relatively warm
ground temperatures should limit any impact and keep roads from
becoming more than wet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Outlook: Heavy rain will be possible at times late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This could cause localized flooding.

Discussion: Another low pressure system will move through the area
mid week, bringing another round of widespread rainfall which may
produce some minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Wow! Four distinctive lines moving through.

The cold front that is approaching has set off numerous warnings in northern Illinois. As the front approaches it is supposed to lose power and it will. But look at how many times the line has redeveloped. This is the first time I've ever seen four distinct lines associated with a cold front.

Five might be pushing it too far but what do you think of this?

A warm pattern is in place for now.

We are in a la nina type winter which might prove to be a wild ride this upcoming winter. For now though, the pattern looks slightly warmer than average for the next ten days and maybe beyond due to the persistent southeast ridge and nonstop tropical / hurricane systems to our south. Here's what the National Weather Service says:

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020

A weak upper trough will continue its approach tonight and then move
through Thursday. Any forcing with this trough will be weak. Most of
the moisture with this system will be at or above 500mb. Thus expect
only clouds with this system. Skies will become partly to mostly
cloudy tonight into Thursday.

These clouds will keep temperatures up tonight and will keep
Thursday`s temperatures from getting quite as warm as today (but
still above normal with no change in airmass).

Upper ridging will return after the trough passes, and high pressure
will remain in control at the surface Thursday night into Friday
night. The atmosphere will be dry once again, so expect mostly clear
conditions. Above normal temperatures will continue again with no
change in airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020

A strong upper level ridge and surface high pressure will gradually
begin to break down Saturday into early Sunday as a seasonably
strong upper level trough tracks across the Rockies into the
Northern Plains.  The only impacts to central Indiana from this
system will be some increased cloud cover Saturday night into Sunday
as Gulf air begins to advect into the area. As this first trough
exits, a secondary trough is expected to move across the Central
Plains Monday through Wednesday with small chances for rain across
central Indiana starting Tuesday morning with better chances during
the afternoon and evening hours. In addition, record high temps are
possible Sunday and Monday before the upper level system arrives.

Confidence remains quite low in timing for chances for rain and
whether anything impacts central Indiana on Tuesday vs later in the
week. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is struggling to
handle the two aforementioned troughs with how quickly they exit the
Rockies and how strong surface cyclogenesis is as they move into the
Plains. Chances for thunder currently look too low for a mention in
the forecast, especially with how low confidence is on timing and
strength of the low.  Pressure gradients do though look strong
enough for gusty winds, especially into Tuesday with widespread
gusts to 25 mph likely.

Temperatures will be much above average through the period.

Also, check check these out:

Here is my interpretation of the storm track that is setting up.