We are in a la nina type winter which might prove to be a wild ride this upcoming winter. For now though, the pattern looks slightly warmer than average for the next ten days and maybe beyond due to the persistent southeast ridge and nonstop tropical / hurricane systems to our south. Here's what the National Weather Service says:
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 A weak upper trough will continue its approach tonight and then move through Thursday. Any forcing with this trough will be weak. Most of the moisture with this system will be at or above 500mb. Thus expect only clouds with this system. Skies will become partly to mostly cloudy tonight into Thursday. These clouds will keep temperatures up tonight and will keep Thursday`s temperatures from getting quite as warm as today (but still above normal with no change in airmass). Upper ridging will return after the trough passes, and high pressure will remain in control at the surface Thursday night into Friday night. The atmosphere will be dry once again, so expect mostly clear conditions. Above normal temperatures will continue again with no change in airmass. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)... Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2020 A strong upper level ridge and surface high pressure will gradually begin to break down Saturday into early Sunday as a seasonably strong upper level trough tracks across the Rockies into the Northern Plains. The only impacts to central Indiana from this system will be some increased cloud cover Saturday night into Sunday as Gulf air begins to advect into the area. As this first trough exits, a secondary trough is expected to move across the Central Plains Monday through Wednesday with small chances for rain across central Indiana starting Tuesday morning with better chances during the afternoon and evening hours. In addition, record high temps are possible Sunday and Monday before the upper level system arrives. Confidence remains quite low in timing for chances for rain and whether anything impacts central Indiana on Tuesday vs later in the week. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is struggling to handle the two aforementioned troughs with how quickly they exit the Rockies and how strong surface cyclogenesis is as they move into the Plains. Chances for thunder currently look too low for a mention in the forecast, especially with how low confidence is on timing and strength of the low. Pressure gradients do though look strong enough for gusty winds, especially into Tuesday with widespread gusts to 25 mph likely. Temperatures will be much above average through the period.
Also, check check these out:
Here is my interpretation of the storm track that is setting up.
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