The setup for Thursday.

 .Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)

Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021

Occasional wind gusts of 15-20 mph are likely to continue through
the rest of the afternoon with nearly dry adiabatic mixing down from
around 850mb. After 00Z, those winds will begin to come down as a
surface inversion begins to build in.  The diurnally driven clouds
at around 4000ft will also dissipate with the loss of the afternoon
heating.  Dry weather will continue through the night into the early
morning hours before precipitation moves in from the west.

A broad closed low will be moving through southern Canada with an
associated surface low and cold front stretching down across the
Upper Midwest.  This front will pass through during the afternoon
hours tomorrow.  Model soundings show a skinny CAPE profile with
steep lapse rates from the surface up to about 600mb.  With the
freezing level only at 5000ft, any stronger shower is likely to
produce a few rumbles of thunder and small hail even with the
shallow cloud tops.  The better CAPE will be across south central
Indiana where surface dewpoints will be a bit higher and allow for a
more shallow LCL and higher LFC.  A few stronger updrafts with large
hail are possible across those areas where the cloud tops should be
tall enough to loft a few larger hailstones. Don`t disagree with the
small marginal risk introduced by SPC for the Day2 outlook, but do
think that the hail risk is the larger threat compared to damaging
winds.

In the aftermath of the frontal passage, winds will become
northwesterly with dry air aloft clearing the residual clouds.  Lows
may fall locally into the mid 30s with the efficient radiational
cooling provided as winds begin to calm and skies clear.  Some
patchy frost looks possible in favored areas, but coverage looks
limited enough that impacts don`t look to warrant a Frost Advisory
at this time.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

A quick moving cold front will move through the area on Friday.
Forcing and moisture look limited with it. Will have some low PoPs
most areas Friday afternoon with it. Cold air behind the front,
combined with lighter winds and clear to partly cloudy skies, could
lead to some patchy frost northeast Friday night.

Some weak isentropic lift ahead of a developing low pressure system
could bring a few showers mainly late on Saturday.

Low pressure will ride along a front south of the area Saturday
night into Sunday. A baroclinic zone will set up aloft over the
area. An 850mb jet will bring moisture into the area as well. With
this forcing and moisture, will go with likely category or higher
PoPs most areas Saturday night into Sunday.

Integrated water vapor transport forecasts show the best import of
moisture to the southern forecast area. Precipitable water values
will be over an inch south, with some models forecasting near record
values. Thus feel the main threat for heavy rain will be south of
Interstate 70, and more likely across the southern third of the
forecast area.

The system exit the area by Monday with high pressure building in.
Will go dry Monday and Tuesday for most areas.

Confidence lowers for Wednesday`s forecast as guidance differs on
the evolution of a couple of systems that could impact the area.
Will just go with low PoPs for now to account for the uncertainty.

Continued shots of cooler air from the north will keep temperatures
below normal through the period. Highs on Sunday could be 15 degrees
or more below normal.