Happy Summer Solstice or Litha. Summer officially begins on Sunday, June 20, 2021.
Friday, June 18 marks the end of week four of the cicadas. Technically speaking, that means they have two weeks left. I can already tell a difference. The "UFO-is-landing" sounding ones are almost gone. The clicking /chirping ones are still around but not nearly as loud and I don't see them flying around as much. The end is near. My original prediction for them to be gone was July 2 but it's possible that they might be gone by June 25th. It's interesting to think about them and their 17 year cycles. The next time Brood X emerges from the ground, I will be retired, or at least I hope so.
As far as the weather goes, get read for a hot and stormy weekend. Friday, June 18 is going to very hot. Tomorrow's high could be as high as 97 degrees so be prepared and drink plenty of water. There's also an enhanced risk for storms Friday evening. The heat hangs around until Monday and then it cools off again. This is the same thing that happened last weekend so we are definitely in a pattern. Read my other post that explains the Omega Pattern.
The National Weather Service forecast discussion about this weekend is very long. I posted it below.
627 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term...(Today through Friday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Surface analysis early this morning shows large high pressure centered over Ohio...continuing to extend its influence across Indiana and into the deep south. Water Vapor imagery shows strong ridging in place across the upper midwest with a ridge axis extending across MN/W WI/Lake Superior and into Ontario. Northerly flow was still in place aloft over Indiana. GOES16 shows clear skies across Indiana. Dew points across the area were mainly in the lower 50s...but some dew points in the lower 40s were found across northwest Central Indiana. Today...Models suggest the strong ridge aloft will make progress southeast...reaching the Michigan and the Great Lakes while diminishing in amplitude. The impacts of the ridge to the north continues to provide subsidence across Central Indiana today as forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column. Today...convective temperatures appear too warm even for CU formation. Thus will trend toward a mostly sunny day with highs at or above the NBM. Tonight...changes begin in our overall weather pattern. The diminished ridge axis will be east of our forecast area...resulting mainly just NW flow aloft streaming into the Great Lakes and Indiana. Subsidence is no longer in play for our area at that point. The models depict a quick moving short wave within the NW flow pushing across WI and toward northern Indiana overnight. Best moisture and forcing looks to stay across northern Indiana`s forecast area...but this still could impact our northern counties with a sideswipe. Thus will keep the evening dry for now...but trend toward increasing cloudiness overnight as convective debris clouds from upstream invade. Eventually will have pops late in the night...mainly across the northern parts of the forecast area...as the short wave and expected convection push through the area. Given the expected cloud and southerly surface flow will trend lows at or above the NBM. Friday...will be highly dependent upon the progression of the early morning convection. Models quickly allow the first short wave to depart to the east while a second short wave is projected to arrive in the later afternoon within the NW flow aloft. Forecast soundings at that time show a column quite favorable for strong and deep convection with CAPE surging over 3500 J/KG in the afternoon and easily attainable convective temperatures in the middle 80s. Furthermore a mid level thermal ridge appears in pace over Central Indiana. Finally it is possible the earlier convection could lay out an outflow boundary as a focus for lower level convergence and development on Friday afternoon. The caveats for this set up is should the previous convection depart slower or leave an extensive cloud shield in its wake...heating on Friday could be limited...which could then limit convective development on Friday afternoon. Thus for now...likely pops with chances for thunderstorms...some strong...seems a very reasonable play given the favorable features for afternoon development. Given the thermal ridge will trend highs at or above the NBM. && .Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Friday night... By Friday night, the main round of strong to severe thunderstorms will have exited the area, but there may be another round the moves through during the late overnight hours with the potential for additional severe weather. Soundings show at least some elevated instability continuing through the night with Hi-Res model guidance hinting that a cluster of storms may form around 00Z across northern Missouri and southern Iowa before progressing into the forecast area later Friday night. Confidence in this is very low due to mesoscale impacts from the previous two round of thunderstorms. Do think that the potential is there for some late night convection, so will add some additional POPs, but won`t get too focused on this due to the potential that the entire system either never initiates, or moves south of the forecast area. Saturday through Sunday... Confidence in the forecast for Saturday remains quite low due to the uncertainty related to the weather Friday and Friday night. Some models that don`t forecast the overnight convection show that there will be plenty of instability for another round of storms Saturday afternoon, but if the Friday night storms move through, then the overall coverage and intensity of convection on Saturday should be greatly diminished. This messy pattern continues into Saturday night before a brief break looks to arrive on Sunday. There looks to be a tropical system moving through the Southern Gulf States during the overnight hours Saturday and Sunday which would temporarily cut off the southerly flow. The system will push off to the east before impacting central Indiana as the next system moves into the area from the northwest. Sunday night through Wednesday... Models don`t have a solid handle on the progression of this next upper level system with model differences in both timing and intensity of the closed low that will be centered over Southern Canada. Either way, do expect widespread rain and isolated to scattered thunderstorms at some point between Monday and Tuesday evening before chances for rain begin to drop off towards the middle of next week. This system will also bring cooler weather to central Indiana with highs expected to reach only into the low to mid 70s on Tuesday. There may be a weak secondary wave that passes through Wednesday, but will trend towards a drier forecast rather than try to hone in on a weak low that`s only suggested by the Canadian.
97?!?!? Ugh.
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