Welcome to the "Dog Days of Summer"

Typically July 3 - August 11 but we have been running two degrees cooler than normal and we've had above average rainfall. That all changes next week when the extreme heat moves in. We could see high temperatures in the mid 90's by Wednesday.

Short Term...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Hot and humid conditions will start to really kick in this weekend.
Northwesterly flow aloft, ahead of a ridge, in addition to
southwesterly to southerly flow at the surface will combine to
advect warmth and moisture into the region. High temperatures will
range from the upper 80s to near 90 and some areas are expected to
have heat indices above 100 degrees both today and tomorrow
afternoon. Smoke will still cause hazy conditions aloft although
there will be more cloud cover this weekend than we have been seeing.

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon
into tomorrow. Central Indiana could see a couple rounds of
precipitation, first would be this afternoon and then again starting
late in the evening along an upper wave. The northwest flow aloft
will be strengthening while a short wave extends towards Lake
Michigan. The precipitation associated with the short wave will
likely be stronger than the afternoon convection as there will be
better forcing and shear, as well as higher PWATs (greater than 1.5
inches). In the far northern counties of the forecast area, some
storms could include damaging winds and can`t completely rule out
some hail. Models do show the system losing its structure and
strength as it moves into central Indiana as diurnal cooling starts
and instability weakens. There are still discrepancies on timing for
when the main round of storms will move through so confidence is
lower at this time as to when move into the area from the NW and
when it will exit to the SE, but have PoPs going through much of the
day Sunday at this time.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Not a lot will change in the long term with regard to the synoptic
scale. The upper pattern will be such that central Indiana will be
under northwest flow aloft and on the periphery of northern Great
Lakes and southern Canada jet stream. That said, upper waves diving
into the northeastern trough may allow the upper flow to veer enough
toward late next week for the area to be in a higher risk for
potential MCS tracks. In fact, instability progs, suggest the
veering flow may sweep a boundary through Thursday night as models
are show central Indiana under a stable atmosphere next Weekend.

Early in the long term, a weak boundary will likely be moving into
south central Indiana Sunday night and stall over the Missouri and
Tennessee Valleys by early next week. The front will be close enough
to warrant small PoPs south of Terre Haute and Rushville through
Monday. Otherwise, chance PoPs also look reasonable late next week
and weekend due to the favored upper flow and potential boundary
moving through. Beside that, would not rule out a few storms
midweek, but small scale waves too difficult to pick out or time in
the upper flow at this time for mention and the atmosphere may be
capped anyway with 700 millibar thermal ridge point in from the
western high pressure dome. This will also result in above to well
above normal temperatures through at least Wednesday with afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s.