Everything in the forecast; all at once too!
A rather bizarre weather map.
The Bloomington snow hole! The storm skips over Bloomington and Monroe County. The forecasted high temperature is 38 today but, will it get there? I'm skeptical.
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 634 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 614 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Radar mosaic was showing modest snow banding with slightly heavier embedded pockets moving northeast across areas north of Noblesville. This activity looks to be associated with the union of weak and sloping 850-700 millibar frontogenesis and slightly negative EPV. Thus, had to raise and extend PoPs through 13z. Snow accumulation with this banding will be less than half an inch except for perhaps isolated locales. && .Short Term...(Today through Friday) Issued at 303 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 - LIGHT WINTRY MIX ENDING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING - ROUND TWO OF THE WINTRY MIX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT Very complicated forecast with precip type and transition zone location the main concerns. Remainder of the overnight... 295K isentropic lift is expected to diminish toward 12z. Currently, Paducah and Evansville radars were showing fairly light returns over south central Indiana within an isentropic lift regime, in the right rear quadrant of a 150 plus knot anti-cyclonic jet over the eastern Great lakes and in an area of modest 850 millibar frontogenesis and another area of light to moderate returns moving into the Wabash Valley from east central Illinois. This could result in slick untreated roads for the morning commute despite little ice or snow accumulation. Currently, most locales were reporting unknown precipitation suggestive of freezing rain or drizzle perhaps mixed with sleet. However, LAF and MIE were reporting snow. The precipitation is expected to move out of central Indiana into Ohio by sunrise. Today and Tonight... Models in good agreement on the synoptic level. Upper low seen in water vapor imagery over southeastern Utah early this morning embedded within an upper trough that extended south into Arizona. This feature will quickly get the boot from a Pacific Northwest trough and eject quickly northeast across the lower Great Lakes tonight. This will induce a surface wave to lift northeast across eastern Kentucky tonight along a stalled front. 295K isentropic lift will ramp up again by this afternoon as the upper trough gets closer and another 150 plus knot jet moves into northern Missouri around the base and just upstream of the trough with the eastern Great Lakes jet still in place. In response, a low level 50 knot jet will move into central and eastern Kentucky. With south central sections closer to this feature, south central sections should see the most QPF through tonight. Precip should quickly spread northeast across the forecast area after 2 or 3 pm and end from east to west overnight with the exit of the trough. Surface temperatures are expected to rise just above freezing to near the I-70 corridor before the precip returns this afternoon. Areas south of the corridor should see all rain through the early evening but HRRR BUFKIT soundings support a mix of sleet and freezing rain initially near the I-70 corridor before it eventually transitions to snow from northwest to southeast this evening and overnight. Finally, northwestern sections should see mainly snow but with 700-500 millibar dry air moving in, would not be surprised to see freezing drizzle before the precip moves out. Ice amounts around a tenth of an inch and slightly higher are possible near the I-70 corridor with light snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches north of the corridor and an inch or less south of the corridor. Meanwhile, far southern sections could see close to an inch of addition rain which could delay the river flooding progress on the lower Wabash, White and East Fork White. Friday... Surface high pressure will move into the Missouri Valley late Friday with zonal flow aloft. That said, plenty of residual low level moisture suggests the low clouds will be difficult to scour out and combined with northwest winds, do not see us getting out of the lower to middle 30s. && .Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 303 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Dry weather is forecast throughout the long term period, with a steady warming trend throughout as the pattern begins to progress. At the surface, models are in decent agreement that broad high pressure will largely be in control throughout the period. A couple of weak clipper systems in northwest flow aloft drop into the Great Lakes late in the period, but are expected to remain far enough north that the only impact on central Indiana would be an increase in sky cover. Vast majority of ensemble members from the Euro and GEFS are in agreement with this and produce no QPF across central Indiana throughout the period. The large scale upper level ridge over the West Coast early in the period will gradually shift eastward as the period moves on, with gradual height rises supporting the overall warming trend through the weekend into early next week, although uncertainty increases dramatically very late in the period, when guidance spread increases significantly and thus confidence lowers. There is a distinct possibility that another at least brief cooldown could occur toward or just past the end of the 7 day.
Ice ice baby!
Flooding is taking up all the news in central Indiana right now however everyone should be more concerned about the ice storm that is approaching for tomorrow night into Thursday. Be forewarned!.
Good news, bad news and #BOTS! news
For #BOTS! fans, beware that winter is not over. For the other #BOTS! fans (bring on the spring / summer) there will be days in the upper 50's to 60's. The bad news is that flooding looks like it will continue to be a problem in the midwest as we head into March.
Here's what's coming up next. 60 degrees on Monday and 62 on Tuesday. A chance for snow Wednesday and Thursday. Ain't that classic Indiana weather?
In the longer range, I still see a LOT of cold air in the north pole and Canada and it has to go somewhere, either Russia, Europe or North America. The pink color represent temperature that are between -20 and -30F.
From the NWS:
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 301 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022 Saturday night through Monday... The long term will start off cold Saturday night as high pressure will be overhead during the evening providing subsidence under an inversion and amid a dry sounding. However, the high will then scamper off to the east coast by Sunday morning courtesy of fast quasi-zonal flow aloft. In that wake of the high, another episode of prolonged return flow will allow temperatures to jump back to the middle 40s and lower 50s Sunday and to the 50s to around 60 degrees by Monday. This will also serve to bring deep moisture back ahead of another developing Plains system. Could see rain return as early as Monday afternoon. Monday night through Tuesday night... Energy within fast southwest flow aloft around the base of a western trough will spin up a surface wave over Kansas, along a cross continent front. The eastern half of this front will extend from around southern Quebec to the lower Great Lakes and into the central Plains on Monday. Deterministic models in general agreement the wave will move across central Indiana on Tuesday. Deep moisture return ingested into this system to the tune of near seasonal max precipitable water values of 1 to 1.5 in combination with 300K isentropic lift and potential upper jet streak interaction supports widespread rain chances Monday night into Tuesday. Would not be surprised to see another widespread inch plus storm total rainfall if the track ends up a but further north than it is projected to be at this time. This could result in delayed river flooding progress. Gusty south and southwest winds should allow temperatures to climb to well above normal with highs in the 60s possible. However, as the system exits, temperatures will roller coaster back down to the 20s and 30s Tuesday night. Wednesday through Thursday... Canadian high pressure will attempt to spread southeast into the area late this week regarding temperatures, but the fast southwest jet will spin up another low pressure system that could bring mixed precip back to the area as early as Wednesday.
Flood Watch for most of Indiana
A Flood Watch is in effect for Monroe County and much of central Indiana. Look for high temperatures near 60 degrees on Thursday and then ice Thursday night with a low temperature of 19 degrees. Don't you just love Indiana weather? Temperatures go back to 60 by Monday.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1130 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-160030-
/O.CON.KIND.FA.A.0001.220217T0000Z-220218T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Brazil, Nashville, Winchester, Bedford,
Fishers, Delphi, Zionsville, Greensburg, Union City, Linton,
Bloomfield, Covington, Farmland, Terre Haute, Danville, Shelburn,
Muncie, Fairview Park, Bloomington, West Lebanon, Indianapolis,
Frankfort, Seymour, Vincennes, Gosport, Loogootee, Jasonville,
Martinsville, Williamsport, Columbus, Carmel, Greenwood, New Castle,
West Lafayette, Flora, Tipton, Anderson, Montezuma, Rockville,
Mooresville, Farmersburg, Rosedale, Lafayette, Veedersburg, North
Vernon, Mitchell, Spencer, Noblesville, Parker City, Attica,
Rushville, Clinton, Greenfield, Washington, Sullivan, Worthington,
Lebanon, Kokomo, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Crawfordsville, Shoals,
Carlisle, Shelbyville, Greencastle, and Franklin
1130 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...All of Central Indiana
* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water
crossings may be flooded.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Moderate to Heavy Rain will be possible on Wednesday Night
and Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 2 inches or greater are
possible. This could result in Flooding.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 259 AM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 - Moderate to heavy rainfall possible on Thursday possibly resulting in Flooding. Wednesday...Models show SW flow in place aloft with a deep upper low over the American Southwest. Strong southerly flow is in place at the surface due to high pressure in place across the east coast. This will allow for a warm and moist flow of air into the Ohio Valley from the Gulf. Little in the way of upper support will in play on Wednesday...but the warm moist air will make for a pleasant day with above normal temps. However...the moisture arrival will set the stage for our rain event. Wednesday Night through Thursday night...High confidence for a rain event is in place during this period. The previously mentioned upper low over the SW states is expected to push out to the Central Plains while an associated upper trough over the upper midwest begins to deepen and push toward the Ohio valley on Thursday afternoon. A strong surface low pressure system is expected to accompany this system...pushing northeast from MO along a warm front that is expected to be in place across Central Illinois and Northern Indiana. For now...it appears the IND forecast area should remain within the warm sector as this system approaches...allowing for p- type to remain rain. Forecast soundings shows the column becoming saturated by on Wednesday Night into Thursday with pwats approaching 1 inch. Furthermore the GFS 295K Isentropic surface shows good up glide with specific humidities approaching 7 g/kg. Yet another favorable ingredient that will be in place will be a strong LLJ up to 65 knts across the Ohio valley on Wednesday Night through Thursday. Forecast soundings on continue to shows strong flow aloft through the day on Thursday along with a saturated column and pwats climbing to near 1.30 inches by afternoon...which is quite high for this time of year. Thus will continue with near 100 pops on Wed night through Thursday and mention of heavy rain. Given the possible rain amounts...areal flooding leading to river flooding will be a concern. The strong upper forcing will exit the area on Thursday night as the surface low pushes to the northeast and the associated cold front is dragged southeast across Central Indiana. Best moisture will be lost...however some wrap around precip on the cold side of the system will remain possible. Thus will hold onto some smaller pops in the evening with p-type as snow as forecast soundings show the column falling below freezing and remaining saturated within the lower levels. By 12Z Fri...a dry column is present as the previous system will be well to the east and cold air advection will be in play as ridging aloft and high pressure builds in at the surface. Dry and seasonable weather is expected for the weekend as NW flow remain in place aloft and surface high pressure slowly moves across the region. The next best chance for precipitation will be Monday and Tuesday as the upper flow once again changes to zonal and then southwesterly...allowing some upper short waves to pass within the flow. Will keep minimal pops at that time until after the main system passes.
The National Weather Service is 152 years old today.
Back in 1870, President Ulysses S. Grant signed into law what we know today as the National Weather Service. The text shown below is from the original bill introduced to the 41st Congress on December 16, 1869.
Are we ready for round two?
#BOTS!
February is still looking pretty cold and there's a chance for one more storm near Valentine's Day. This is too far into the future to be accurate but it's something to watch for #BOTS fans.
Things to know after the snow.
The important thing to remember is to stay off the roads unless you absolutely need be out. Monroe County in under a travel warning. The plows have not even started yet in Monroe County. There's still snow in the forecast until midnight with another 2 inches possible by 7:00AM tomorrow. Here are some additional resources on weather related road conditions:
Indiana DHS Travel Status Map
https://www.in.gov/dhs/traveladvisory/
Indiana TrafficWise
https://511in.org/camera/600/@-86.47552,39.04658,10?show=incidents,normalCameras,weatherWarningsAreaEvents,plowCameras,flooding
Webcam if I-69
https://511in.org/camera/600/@-87.86316,39.7614,7?show=incidents,normalCameras,weatherWarningsAreaEvents,plowCameras,flooding#camera/600/5381
Current Indiana road / surface temperatures
https://viewmondousa.com/Public/Indiana/MapView
Interesting factoids about salt and ice.
It's very common for people to think salt is put down on the roads during a snowstorm because salt melts ice. Well, technically speaking, that isn't true. Salt does not melt ice. Salt creates a freezing point depression. That means a mixture of salt and water lowers (depresses) the freezing point of water from 32 degrees to 25 degrees.
The freezing point depression only works up to a certain point. At temperatures below 10 degrees salt becomes useless and the roads are treated with chemicals. Most chemical liquid sprays contain either magnesium chloride, calcium chloride, potassium chloride and sodium chloride. And then there's "produced brine" which has some controversy attached to it.
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