Burl's Weather Page: May 2022

Enjoy the short taste of summer this week. Much cooler air returns next week. Are you ready for high temperatures in the 70's and low temperatures in the upper 40's?

May 25 show a low of 48

May 27 shows a high of 68.

Look at June 1st

The National Weather Service produces very long-range outlooks. If you're hoping for a cooler than normal summer then you might be in luck. All bets are off for July, August and September though. That data will not be published until some time in July.

The one month temperature forecast.

The three month temperature forecast.

Given how lucky we would be if this verifies, I bet payback is coming in August with a month on 99+ degree days. Nature abhors a vacuum.

The below normal temperatures come to an end this week. Next week we'll get a taste of summer. Could we see 90 degrees next Wednesday? That's too hot to even go out golfing.

There are no more frost-like or freezing temperatures in long range forecast. It is finally safe to start planting. On the other hand, it does look like we are getting off to a slightly cooler than normal start to summer. Check out these low temperatures in the 40's for the latter half of May.

Here's the latest discussion from the National Weather Service:

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022

Quite the pattern change expected to take place in the long term as
cool and wet conditions this weekend transition to hot, humid,
summer-like weather next week.

Friday - Saturday

Nearly stacked area of low pressure in the Central Plains slowly
moves eastward along an E-W oriented boundary stretched across the
Ohio Valley. GFS and EC ensembles still show some spread regarding
the exact track as it moves through Indiana. Larger spread with the
ECE members with the low potentially tracking anywhere from the Ohio
River to the Michigan border; while the GFS ensembles are clustered
in Southern Indiana and right along the Ohio River. NBM currently
splits the difference with the surface low tracking right along the
I-70 corridor. While the overall track will have influence on where
the axis of heaviest rain sets up, surface temperatures, and thunder
potential; confidence is high in below normal temperatures and
widespread rainfall for Central Indiana on Friday.

Current thinking is that rain and elevated thunderstorms along a
warm front will be ongoing Friday morning. As the surface low moves
directly over the region, expect light rain and potentially
thunderstorms to continue through the day. While thunder is in the
forecast across all of Central Indiana, best chance for thunder and
stronger storms remains across South Central Indiana closer to the
warm sector where slightly higher instability exists. Still will
have to monitor the track of the low as a further north track could
bring the potential for strong to severe storms further northward
into Central Indiana. Given the slow nature of this system, there is
a marginal to slight risk of flooding across much of the state as 1
to 2 inches of rain could fall on already saturated grounds.

The low slowly departs to the east on Saturday while high pressure
settles over the region. With abundant low level moisture in the PBL
and high pressure moving in, expect low stratus and possible drizzle
to linger through the day. Expect ceilings to rise during the day;
however with subsidence aloft trapping moisture near the surface and
little to no forcing, clouds will be stubborn to clear out.

As for temperatures, expect a 5 to 10+ degree gradient from north to
south across the area. Confidence is lower with the temperature
forecast as a track farther north (south) will lead to warmer
(cooler) surface temperatures. For now, keeping low to mid 60s
across north Central Indiana and low to mid 70s across South Central
Indiana.

Sunday - Next Week

Beginning Sunday and persisting through next week, a major pattern
change takes place across much of the eastern half of the CONUS as
ridging builds in and a surface high parks itself across the
Northeast. Many forecast signals are pointing towards a summer-like
pattern developing and persisting increasing forecast confidence in
the long term. Cluster analysis reveals strong agreement among
models in a highly amplified ridge over the Great Lakes and
Northeast early to mid week. NAEFS and ENS are indicating 30+ year
climatological maximums in 850 mb temperatures and high moisture
content/humidity levels.

Flow turns southerly on Sunday and increases through early next week
advecting in a much warmer and humid airmass. Temperatures aloft
dramatically increase to 16 to 20C at 850mb by midweek. With a well
mixed atmosphere, expect very steep low level lapse rates mixing
down the anomalously warm air aloft to the surface. Highs in the 80s
expected Monday through at least midweek. Would not be surprised for
a few sites to reach their first 90 degree day of the year sometime
next week as EC ESAT tables show low to mid level temperatures 2 to
3 standard deviations above normal. With all this in mind, went
above NBM guidance for temperatures next week. On top of the summer-
like heat, oppressive mid-summer like humidity values will surge
northward as moist tropical air flows northward from the Gulf of
Mexico. Dew points could potentially reach the lower 70s at times
next week leading to heat indices well into the 90s.

By mid to late next week, guidance indicates a broad upper low
retrograding westward from the Atlantic to the Southeast CONUS. With
the potential for lower pressure moving into a very unstable, warm,
and humid airmass, will have to watch the potential for
thunderstorms once again by the end of next week. Confidence is low
regarding any details past midweek as long term guidance tends to
struggle with the break down of blocking patterns.

Burl's Weather Page

90 degrees again tomorrow.

Why? Because it's Indiana!

A taste of summer next week!