There are no more frost-like or freezing temperatures in long range forecast. It is finally safe to start planting. On the other hand, it does look like we are getting off to a slightly cooler than normal start to summer. Check out these low temperatures in the 40's for the latter half of May.
Here's the latest discussion from the National Weather Service:
.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Quite the pattern change expected to take place in the long term as cool and wet conditions this weekend transition to hot, humid, summer-like weather next week. Friday - Saturday Nearly stacked area of low pressure in the Central Plains slowly moves eastward along an E-W oriented boundary stretched across the Ohio Valley. GFS and EC ensembles still show some spread regarding the exact track as it moves through Indiana. Larger spread with the ECE members with the low potentially tracking anywhere from the Ohio River to the Michigan border; while the GFS ensembles are clustered in Southern Indiana and right along the Ohio River. NBM currently splits the difference with the surface low tracking right along the I-70 corridor. While the overall track will have influence on where the axis of heaviest rain sets up, surface temperatures, and thunder potential; confidence is high in below normal temperatures and widespread rainfall for Central Indiana on Friday. Current thinking is that rain and elevated thunderstorms along a warm front will be ongoing Friday morning. As the surface low moves directly over the region, expect light rain and potentially thunderstorms to continue through the day. While thunder is in the forecast across all of Central Indiana, best chance for thunder and stronger storms remains across South Central Indiana closer to the warm sector where slightly higher instability exists. Still will have to monitor the track of the low as a further north track could bring the potential for strong to severe storms further northward into Central Indiana. Given the slow nature of this system, there is a marginal to slight risk of flooding across much of the state as 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall on already saturated grounds. The low slowly departs to the east on Saturday while high pressure settles over the region. With abundant low level moisture in the PBL and high pressure moving in, expect low stratus and possible drizzle to linger through the day. Expect ceilings to rise during the day; however with subsidence aloft trapping moisture near the surface and little to no forcing, clouds will be stubborn to clear out. As for temperatures, expect a 5 to 10+ degree gradient from north to south across the area. Confidence is lower with the temperature forecast as a track farther north (south) will lead to warmer (cooler) surface temperatures. For now, keeping low to mid 60s across north Central Indiana and low to mid 70s across South Central Indiana. Sunday - Next Week Beginning Sunday and persisting through next week, a major pattern change takes place across much of the eastern half of the CONUS as ridging builds in and a surface high parks itself across the Northeast. Many forecast signals are pointing towards a summer-like pattern developing and persisting increasing forecast confidence in the long term. Cluster analysis reveals strong agreement among models in a highly amplified ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast early to mid week. NAEFS and ENS are indicating 30+ year climatological maximums in 850 mb temperatures and high moisture content/humidity levels. Flow turns southerly on Sunday and increases through early next week advecting in a much warmer and humid airmass. Temperatures aloft dramatically increase to 16 to 20C at 850mb by midweek. With a well mixed atmosphere, expect very steep low level lapse rates mixing down the anomalously warm air aloft to the surface. Highs in the 80s expected Monday through at least midweek. Would not be surprised for a few sites to reach their first 90 degree day of the year sometime next week as EC ESAT tables show low to mid level temperatures 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. With all this in mind, went above NBM guidance for temperatures next week. On top of the summer- like heat, oppressive mid-summer like humidity values will surge northward as moist tropical air flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Dew points could potentially reach the lower 70s at times next week leading to heat indices well into the 90s. By mid to late next week, guidance indicates a broad upper low retrograding westward from the Atlantic to the Southeast CONUS. With the potential for lower pressure moving into a very unstable, warm, and humid airmass, will have to watch the potential for thunderstorms once again by the end of next week. Confidence is low regarding any details past midweek as long term guidance tends to struggle with the break down of blocking patterns.
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