A prolonged and record heat wave builds over the West this week
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/30/weather/record-heat-west-labor-day-forecast-tropics/index.html
A prolonged and record heat wave builds over the West this week
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/30/weather/record-heat-west-labor-day-forecast-tropics/index.html
Enjoy the low temperature of 55 degrees tonight because it will be a long time before we see that again. The GFS has prolonged heat returning and staying into the first half of September. Check out these high temperatures for September 9, 2022. It could be anywhere from 102 to 106 degrees; yes the actual air temperature, not including the heat index. Even if this is off by a few degrees, we are looking at actual high temperatures in the high 90's.
Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 Thursday and Friday... The long term weather will be the result of a prototypical meridional pattern, beginning dry and cool, and finishing warmer with low chances of showers/thunderstorms. Currently, an upper level trough axis is centered over the Ohio Valley, this will push off to the east over the next two days, and by Wednesday night central Indiana will be within NW flow. The particular pattern of NW flow, jet streak north of the region and AVA, will create in height rises aloft, leading to near surface pressure rises. This will result in broad subsidence over the region, and a much dryer air mass (dew points in the mid 50s) through Friday. Saturday and Sunday... Heading into the weekend, westerly WAA will build heights, progressing the upper level ridge eastward. The warmer airmass aloft will translate to a slight increase in surface temperatures with highs in the upper 80s Saturday. A few models are indicating some precipitation development over the southern Ohio Valley Saturday and Sunday, but the current expectation is for this to remain south of central Indiana. Still, enough uncertainty exists for slight chance PoPs in the afternoon for both days over far southern portions of the CWA. Models have a much larger spread amongst ensemble members by early next week, and will largely depend on the location/timing of lee cyclogenesis within an upstream trough. Either way, SW flow should return, leading to a better chance than not of above normal temperatures as indicated by the current 6-10 day outlook from CPC. Showers/thunderstorms will be possible within this return flow, but enough ensemble spread exists to temper expectations.
1. A cold front always comes through during the last week of July.
2. There's always a snow or ice storm during the boys basketball high school sectionals.
3. The first week of October is alway hot, as in, way warmer than normal.
4. Tornadoes occur in October and November (albeit rarely but more common now due to climate change).
5. -- add your own thoughts in the comments below.
We are under a G3 Storm Watch
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g1-g3-watches-17-19-august-2022
In case you didn't know, AccuWeather posts very long range weather forecasts. I'm talking about three to four months out. I've been waiting to see their model predict the first chance of snow. Here is the October to November outlook:
Yes. I know. It's a little early for this given that the heat index is 100 degrees today but the Farmer's Almanac just published this for the upcoming 2022-23 winter season: