Summer is not over!

Enjoy the low temperature of 55 degrees tonight because it will be a long time before we see that again. The GFS has prolonged heat returning and staying into the first half of September. Check out these high temperatures for September 9, 2022. It could be anywhere from 102 to 106 degrees; yes the actual air temperature, not including the heat index. Even if this is off by a few degrees, we are looking at actual high temperatures in the high 90's. 


The Euro model says the opposite; cooler with high temperatures in the upper 70's for September 9, 2022. Isn't this fascinating?


So there could be several things going on here. The computer models disagree on where the heat dome will set up. The GFS says the midwest. The Euro says the plains and west. The EURO might be incorporating heavy rain which would keep the temperatures down. There is some truth to this because there are two tropical systems approaching the eastern coastline. The interaction between the heat dome and the tropical storms will be a battle to watch out for next week. 

AccuWeather splits the difference with a high of 84 and sunshine.


Weather dot com leans towards being hot with a high 89 degrees and sunshine.


The National Weather Service doesn't see that far ahead but here is their current thinking:
(The last paragraph is the most important part)

Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

Thursday and Friday...

The long term weather will be the result of a
prototypical meridional pattern, beginning dry and cool, and
finishing warmer with low chances of showers/thunderstorms.

Currently, an upper level trough axis is centered over the Ohio
Valley, this will push off to the east over the next two days, and
by Wednesday night central Indiana will be within NW flow. The
particular pattern of NW flow, jet streak north of the region and
AVA, will create in height rises aloft, leading to near surface
pressure rises. This will result in broad subsidence over the
region, and a much dryer air mass (dew points in the mid 50s)
through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...

Heading into the weekend, westerly WAA will build heights,
progressing the upper level ridge eastward. The warmer airmass aloft
will translate to a slight increase in surface temperatures with
highs in the upper 80s Saturday. A few models are indicating some
precipitation development over the southern Ohio Valley Saturday and
Sunday, but the current expectation is for this to remain south of
central Indiana. Still, enough uncertainty exists for slight chance
PoPs in the afternoon for both days over far southern portions of
the CWA.

Models have a much larger spread amongst ensemble members by early
next week, and will largely depend on the location/timing of lee
cyclogenesis within an upstream trough. Either way, SW flow should
return, leading to a better chance than not of above normal
temperatures as indicated by the current 6-10 day outlook from CPC.
Showers/thunderstorms will be possible within this return flow, but
enough ensemble spread exists to temper expectations.









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