Woooo hoooo!
.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022 A transition to fall-like weather for the first week of Fall appears likely. After a recent bout of temperatures in the 80s and near 90, today`s cold front will signal a bit of a pattern shift heading forward. General troughing across the eastern United States will be the primary synoptic scale pattern through the long range. A return to negative AO/NAO pattern is anticipated and this may allow for a bit of variability within the trough ridge pattern by late next week. In fact, many of the deterministic models currently depict the jet stream pattern becoming quite chaotic a week from now. Overall, with troughing in place expect generally cooler conditions more reminiscent of Fall through the period. At the surface, a large area of high pressure should build in Thursday night. Optimal conditions for radiational cooling could allow low temperatures to dip to near 40 degrees in places by Friday morning. Return flow ahead of a fast-moving shortwave embedded within the broad northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a brief rebound in temps over the weekend. It will not be hot by any means, but more seasonal high temperatures in the mid 70s and lows in the 50s can be expected. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms are also possible this weekend as the wave passes through the region. However, moisture will be limited as well as instability. So not expecting anything widespread, but will include slight PoPs for Saturday and Sunday. Beyond that, ensembles generally show the broad troughiness amplifying considerably next week. This appears to be in tandem with Hurricane Fiona becoming an intense extratropical cyclone and occluding over maritime Canada...possibly blocking the overall flow progression a bit. Northerly flow at the surface returns as the weekend`s upper-level wave slows down and deepens to our east. Surface high pressure should then rebuild into the region, allowing low temperatures in the 40s to return. Of course, with a large high pressure system this time of the year, nighttime/morning fog is possible as radiational cooling is optimized, combined with cooler
temps and longer nights.
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