October is our second severe weather season. It is possible to see severe weather and tornadoes because of the clash of cold and warm air masses just like in the spring.
Our first freeze is possible between October 14 and October 19.
#BOTS! Flurries on October 19th?
Here's what the NWS thinks:
Forecast Update... Issued at 641 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Minor changes to the forecast this morning. Refined the mention of patchy fog across our northeastern counties based upon recent observations and satellite trends. Nudged temperatures north of I-70 down a degree or two, again based upon recent observational trends. High pressure is currently overhead, and winds have generally decreased to less than 5kts during the course of the night. A few locations have even gone calm for multiple hours, and these have typically been the cooler spots with frost and fog. Given the expectation of clear skies with light winds through morning, the continued development of patchy frost and fog is anticipated until shortly after sunrise. && .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Through Sunrise High pressure is currently building into the region, and light northeasterly winds are diminishing. Some weak cold air advection throughout the day yesterday has allowed for cooler conditions compared to the prior overnight period. Many rural stations are reporting temperatures in the middle 30s as of 06Z. Will carry the mention of frost for much of the CWA and maintain the Special Weather Statement. Urban areas With excellent radiational cooling potential, some patchy ground fog is possible by morning. Terra Haute recently had a brief period of visibility under 2 miles. Low-level moisture is quite limited, however, and widespread fog is not expected. The main forecast challenge through morning will be the frost coverage. Today Any frost or ground fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise once temperatures begin to rise. Efficient boundary layer mixing may once again occur this afternoon, and surface dew points may drop to under 32F. Will keep dew points under NBM guidance this afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be seasonable, around 70, and winds will remain very light. A few high clouds may be noticeable to our east early, but these should diminish throughout the day. Tonight The center of the surface high will be directly overhead by tonight. Some air mass modification and the cessation of weak cold air advection will lead to slightly warmer overnight lows compared to this morning. While a few instances of frost may occur, most locations are not expected to be cold enough to support frost. Some patchy ground fog is possible, but once again not expected to be widespread. Most likely places for patchy fog would be low points in the local terrain and farmland with enhanced surface moisture from evapotranspiration. && .Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 * Frost likely with potential freezing temperatures this weekend * Very low chance for rain around Thursday Wednesday... Upper ridging and surface high pressure will continue the dry conditions. Sunshine and dry air will allow temperatures to peak above normal in the lower to middle 70s. Afternoon humidity will be low once again, but with high pressure nearby, winds will be light. This will help mitigate potential fire concerns. Thursday into Friday... A weak upper wave will move through on Thursday, with an accompanying weak surface trough. Moisture will be limited with the Gulf cut off. This means little chance of rain, and the models continue to hint at little if any QPF. Will keep some slight chance PoPs across the northern forecast area Thursday afternoon. Above normal temperatures will continue with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday night, a cold front with significantly colder air behind it will move through. However, best forcing will be north of the area closer to an upper low across southern Canada. The upper jet will be over the area, putting the left exit region north of central Indiana. This will limit forcing here as well. Moisture will continue to be limited as well. Thus, odds of any measurable rain are low. Will continue a dry forecast Thursday night. As colder air flows in on Friday, some lake enhanced showers may move into northern Indiana. These should remain north of central Indiana, so went dry on Friday as well. Thanks to strong cold advection, highs on Friday will only be in the 50s to around 60. Saturday and Sunday... Surface high pressure will move through during the weekend, keeping the area dry and cool. Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s, with some southwest flow on the west side of high pressure bringing 60s for highs on Sunday. Clearing skies and weakening winds will allow temperatures to dip into the lower to middle 30s by sunrise Saturday. Frost will become likely many areas, with the potential for below freezing temperatures, especially in favored cold spots. Similar conditions will exit early Sunday morning, but a hint of a southwest wind should keep temperatures above freezing. Frost will be possible again though. Columbus Day... Upper flow will become zonal or perhaps southwesterly depending on how an upper low develops across the northern USA. This will allow for warmer temperatures. At the moment, forcing from the approaching system looks to remain far enough west to go with a dry forecast.
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