We'll see a few more days with high temperatures in the 40's. All the signs are pointing to a colder and snowier patter by Thursday, December 15th. We might have a decent shot at a white Christmas here in central Indiana. From the NWS:
.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 316 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2022 * Relatively mild temperatures continue through mid week. * Rain, possibly significant, Tuesday into Wednesday associated with a strong low pressure system. * Temperatures look to turn significantly cooler toward next weekend. The long term period will start off with ridging through the atmosphere building into the region. This will bring dry weather and mild, seasonable temperatures to central Indiana through at least Tuesday morning with highs in the 40s and lows near 30 degrees. The drier conditions are also expected to this out the cloud cover to at least partly cloudy, finally allowing the sun to make an appearance for a couple days. Through the first half of the week, a large low pressure system will be building and progressing through the western half of the CONUS and into the central Plains. This system and it`s associated cold front will bring a line of showers and storms from the Gulf of Mexico up to the Canadian border and eventually bring rain to the area midweek. There still remain some uncertainties as to how the low will track as it exits the plains but the system does still look to occlude and lose steam once the front reaches the Mississippi River. Sticking with likely PoPs for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when confidence is highest for rain. When the rain is going to end for the area is more of an unknown as the front could stall to the east which may keep rain in the area into Wednesday night or Thursday. Will still be watching for the possibility of heavy rain and a threat of flooding with this system as ample moisture advection out of the Gulf is expected although higher rain amounts will be more likely well to the south. At this time, amounts in excess of an inch appear probable for central Indiana, but given recent precipitation deficits it is unsurprising to see hydrologic ensemble forecasts showing no impact to area waterways. Along the front, wind gusts up to 35 mph should be expected within the rain. What the low ends up doing at the end of the week is also a question. Should it track over the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes region, we could see snow over parts of the area as moistures on the backside of the low moves through. There is also the potential that the low will lift to the north as it dies which would just usher in a belt of dry and cold air for the end of the period. Temperatures will drop significantly behind the cold front and will lead to highs only reaching the mid to upper 30s and lows in the 20s for the end of the week.
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