Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 307 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023 - Slightly Above Normal temperatures - Chance of Rain and Snow Thursday - Wintry Mix This Weekend Thursday... An upper low will move from just east of Davenport to the Indiana/Michigan border Thursday. Impulses and a 100+ knot 250 millibar jet streak around the base of the low, frontogentical forcing and deep moisture from 10-15K feet strongly support PoPs higher than the meager blend output. So raised PoPs to 30-40% near and north of a Greensburg to Clinton line with 20% PoPs extending slightly further south and areas from near Sullivan to Seymour dry. Would also not be surprised if PoP increase even further in the next couple of forecasts but for now matching up nicely with neighboring offices. Low level thicknesses and soundings support a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow to start Thursday morning and then transition to mostly rain except areas northwest of Indianapolis, where afternoon high temperatures are only expected to be a few degrees above freezing and snow could still mix in. Thursday night and Friday... Broad area of surface high pressure will result in subsidence and combined with drier air moving in aloft on the back side of the departing upper low will grace central Indiana with dry weather Thursday night and Friday. However, moist boundary layer will prevent much clearing until Friday when some breaks will move in from southwest to northeast. Low level thermals and cloud considerations support temperatures to climb to normal or slightly above normal in the middle 30s to lower 40s by Friday afternoon. Friday night through Sunday... The next system to impact central Indiana will be a bit tricky with the thermal setup supporting a transition zone across central Indiana starting early Saturday. 295K isentropic lift will kick in ahead of a Plains/Missouri Valley low pressure system starting overnight Friday night and continuing through early Saturday as the surface low moves across anywhere from south central to north central Indiana, depending on the model of choice. This path uncertainty will lead to low confidence in PoPs and precip type. Current blend would bring a chance of rain/snow/freezing rain in early Saturday with best chances southwest, where the precip should be mostly rain and lower chances northeast, where the precip type should be mostly snow. A jet streak in the 125+ knot subtropical jet will induce a circulation that will increase upward vertical motion to the north of the jet in the exit region. Meanwhile, frontogenesis to the north of the jet will aid in the northward sloping circulation which could lead to banding at times. The precip will likely change to rain most areas Saturday afternoon as warm advection continues with potentially areas north central areas returning to a mix Saturday night. With the polar air bottled up well north, look for temperatures to be slightly above normal with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s Saturday. Continued warm advection ahead of the surface low may allow temperatures to reach the 40s over all sections Sunday as the precip dies down and ends from west to east. Sunday night into Tuesday... Would not rule out more showers Tuesday as another low pressure system gets close, otherwise high pressure and a drier column could bring some breaks to the clouds to the area along with continued slightly above normal temperatures. &&
Keep a close eye on the weather from January 5 - 20.
The pattern looks like one that can produce a wintery mix or ice storm because the night time temperature are all between 30 and 35 degrees. When you have warm air that tries to overrun cold air, you can get ice so pay attention to your weather apps. I think this pattern will last until January 20th. Here's what the National Weather Service says about this weekend:
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