Keep a close eye on the weather from January 5 - 20.

The pattern looks like one that can produce a wintery mix or ice storm because the night time temperature are all between 30 and 35 degrees. When you have warm air that tries to overrun cold air, you can get ice so pay attention to your weather apps. I think this pattern will last until January 20th. Here's what the National Weather Service says about this weekend:

Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

- Slightly Above Normal temperatures

- Chance of Rain and Snow Thursday

- Wintry Mix This Weekend

Thursday...

An upper low will move from just east of Davenport to the
Indiana/Michigan border Thursday. Impulses and a 100+ knot 250
millibar jet streak around the base of the low, frontogentical
forcing and deep moisture from 10-15K feet strongly support PoPs
higher than the meager blend output. So raised PoPs to 30-40% near
and north of a Greensburg to Clinton line with 20% PoPs extending
slightly further south and areas from near Sullivan to Seymour dry.
Would also not be surprised if PoP increase even further in the next
couple of forecasts but for now matching up nicely with neighboring
offices. Low level thicknesses and soundings support a mix of rain,
freezing rain and snow to start Thursday morning and then transition
to mostly rain except areas northwest of Indianapolis, where
afternoon high temperatures are only expected to be a few
degrees above freezing and snow could still mix in.

Thursday night and Friday...

Broad area of surface high pressure will result in subsidence and
combined with drier air moving in aloft on the back side of the
departing upper low will grace central Indiana with dry weather
Thursday night and Friday. However, moist boundary layer will
prevent much clearing until Friday when some breaks will move in
from southwest to northeast. Low level thermals and cloud
considerations support temperatures to climb to normal or slightly
above normal in the middle 30s to lower 40s by Friday afternoon.

Friday night through Sunday...

The next system to impact central Indiana will be a bit tricky with
the thermal setup supporting a transition zone across central
Indiana starting early Saturday.

295K isentropic lift will kick in ahead of a Plains/Missouri Valley
low pressure system starting overnight Friday night and continuing
through early Saturday as the surface low moves across anywhere from
south central to north central Indiana, depending on the model of
choice. This path uncertainty will lead to low confidence in PoPs
and precip type. Current blend would bring a chance of
rain/snow/freezing rain in early Saturday with best chances
southwest, where the precip should be mostly rain and lower chances
northeast, where the precip type should be mostly snow. A jet streak
in the 125+ knot subtropical jet will induce a circulation that will
increase upward vertical motion to the north of the jet in the exit
region. Meanwhile, frontogenesis to the north of the jet will aid in
the northward sloping circulation which could lead to banding at
times. The precip will likely change to rain most areas Saturday
afternoon as warm advection continues with potentially areas north
central areas returning to a mix Saturday night. With the polar air
bottled up well north, look for temperatures to be slightly above
normal with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s Saturday. Continued
warm advection ahead of the surface low may allow temperatures to
reach the 40s over all sections Sunday as the precip dies down and
ends from west to east.

Sunday night into Tuesday...

Would not rule out more showers Tuesday as another low pressure
system gets close, otherwise high pressure and a drier column could
bring some breaks to the clouds to the area along with continued
slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

No comments:

Post a Comment