.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Sunday Through Monday. Models have come much more closely in line for the Saturday night through Sunday system with a frontal passage expected during the mid morning hours across central Indiana as a strong closed low tracks from Southern Iowa into Northern Illinois. Showers will likely be ongoing at 8AM across the western counties with widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder through the early afternoon hours. With the timing of the system instability is minimal with less than 500 J/kg of CAPE expected which will limit any severe threat. In the aftermath of the frontal passage, gradient winds will begin to increase as a result of tightening pressure gradients with occasional gusts to 30-35 mph. These stronger winds will continue into the overnight hours and Monday. Focus then shifts to the backend portion of the system Sunday night into Monday as the upper level low tracks into Michigan and strong CAA arrives behind the front both at the surface and aloft. By late Sunday night into early Monday, temperatures will have dropped into the upper 30s with the potential for snow to briefly mix in across the northern counties. Accumulations are not expected due to the warm ground temperatures. Unpleasant conditions will continue through the day on Monday with strong westerly to northwesterly flow, cool temperatures, and cloudy skies. Near freezing temperatures are then expected Monday night across the northern counties so will have to continue to monitor the forecast trends for any potential Frost/Freeze headlines. Winds across the area that will be coldest should stay above 10 mph which will limit the frost chances. Tuesday Through Friday. Conditions will then quickly begin to going into the middle portions of the week as southerly flow returns and high pressure gradually builds across the area. This high pressure will then begin to break down Thursday as the next system begins to approach the area. There remains a high amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the next low pressure system, but think that by Friday rain chances will gradually begin to increase with better model consensus on the arrival of another frontal system. Dewpoints look marginal with this system as the Gulf moisture remains locked in the Tennessee Valley which will limit the instability and severe weather threat.
The GFS has been very consistent on snow and now the NWS has mentioned it.
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