Cooler weather to persist

I don't see any 80 degree days until the end of May. Enjoy the cooler weather. 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
634 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023

* A cold start to May with temperatures similar to March
* Wind gusts to 40 mph today
* More rain for much of the area today

Early this morning, the stubborn large upper low remained across
lower Michigan. Broad cyclonic flow continued at the surface and
aloft across central Indiana. Scattered showers were moving through
the area.

Before 12Z...

Scattered showers will diminish from northwest to southeast as the
main forcing exits the area, but isolated showers or sprinkles will
remain with weak forcing continuing in the cyclonic flow.

Today...

A few showers will continue through mid morning with weak forcing
continuing across mainly the northeast half of the forecast area.
However, as a strong upper wave rotates around the upper low,
forcing will ramp up late morning north and spread south and east
during the afternoon.

Best forcing will be confined to the northeast half of the forecast
area. Will go likely to categorical PoPs there, with the highest
PoPs in the northeast closest to the upper wave. Will have low PoPs
to no PoPs across the southwest where forcing is weak. Little or no
instability is expected, so will not mention any thunder.

Strong winds will remain not too far off the surface, and the
pressure gradient will remain relatively tight across the area
today. These will produce breezy conditions. As some mixing occurs,
wind gusts around 40 mph will develop. Will continue with a Special
Weather Statement highlighting this.

Clouds and rain will keep temperatures well below normal today.
Normal highs for May 1 are in the upper 60s to around 70, but highs
today will only be in the low to mid 40s northeast to the mid 50s
southwest. For Indy, a high in the upper 40s is normal for March 10.
Winds will make it feel even cooler.

Tonight...

Forcing will diminish through the night as the upper wave moves away
and the upper low itself shifts a bit east. Will have some likely
PoPs early in the period northeast, with initial PoPs dropping off
to dry for the southwest forecast area. PoPs will then diminish from
southwest to northeast during the night.

Clouds will stick around across the northeast but decrease across
the southwest. Cold advection and the partial clearing will lead to
lows in the upper 30s to around 40.

Stronger wind gusts will diminish with loss of heating tonight, but
breezy conditions will persist through much of the night.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023

The beginning of the long term will still be heavily influenced by
an upper level low slowly drifting east across the Great Lakes. An
upper level impulse is expected to pivot around the low and help
reinforce cloud cover Tuesday. Forcing will be marginal, but
sufficient moisture should support sporadic light showers or drizzle
late in the day. Windy conditions are expected Tuesday with a tight
MSLP gradient in place, but these winds should gradually diminish
midweek.

By Tuesday night, slight progression of an upper ridge
across the central CONUS will allow for a dry air to advect into the
region. This should allow skies to clear out, leading to more
efficient diurnal cooling and colder temperatures. Northeast
portions of the area may not clear out until Wednesday due to the
slow progression of the ridge. Diurnal cooling will be limited some,
but lows in the mid 30s are still expected for most of the area
under strong cold air advection. Frost is not expected as winds
should remain around 10-15 mph overnight.

The upper low will move into the northeast states Wednesday with
surface high pressure building in. Look for mostly sunny skies and
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. A more optimal radiational cooling
setup is likely overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning due to
relatively light winds and clear skies. This will likely lead to at
least patchy frost Thursday morning. The second half of the week
should slightly warm as the ridge begins to influence the Great
Lakes Region. Temperatures will likely still be near seasonal within
NW flow.

An upper level disturbance is expected to move across the northern
periphery of the ridge late Thursday night into Friday, bringing
another chance for rain. Confidence decreases significantly after
Friday as it will be dependent on how the disturbance develops.
While there is lower confidence, a general warming trend is expected
into the weekend with increasing heights aloft.