Indiana will see a chance of strong to severe storms on both Tuesday and Wednesday. If you have family living in Kentucky or Oklahoma, be sure and give them a call to warn them. Tornadoes are likely in those states and they should probably get a hotel in another state until the storms pass.
Here is what the National Weather Service is thinking about Indiana:
LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)... Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Late Tuesday night through Wednesday night... A break in convection is expected to start late Tuesday night, with even weak ridging building into central Indiana from the subtropical surface high pressure to our southeast. Despite clearing skies, lighter southwesterly breezes will hold dewpoints in the upper 50s...resulting in low temperatures around 60F across the region. Wednesday will bring another favorable set-up for convection and perhaps widespread severe weather with a warm frontal type boundary likely slowly advancing northward near our southern counties ahead of a strengthening surface low slowly approaching over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Much of the day Wednesday may be the quiet before the storm as the narrow ridging between the two systems continues to cross the CWA...albeit eventually self-destructive with the bright skies bringing low 80s and light southerly winds holding dewpoints in the 55-65F range. Resultant CAPE by 21Z should range from 1000-3000 J/kg from north-south...including moderately strong 7- 8 deg/km lapse rates over most of the area. Widespread 40-55 kt 0-6 km shear will also support arriving/developing convection. So far appears most likely storm pattern will be a mesoscale convective system initiating in the afternoon somewhere in the central/eastern Illinois region...before tracking eastward into Indiana during the late day/early evening hours. This would likely transition into more of a heavy rain/flooding threat later in the evening and into overnight hours, especially south of I-70 amid the system`s warm sector`s anomalous precipitable water values approaching 2.00 inches. While the environment would support discrete cells ahead of a later MCS arrival...organized severe weather`s location would be dependent on warm frontal position, with timing likely determined by where/when storms begin to fire to our west. All severe hazards are on the table for PM hours Wednesday with damaging winds and large hail the greatest threats during the afternoon/evening...and flooding the greatest concern for the evening/overnight. Although it is only early May, the set-up and potential are perhaps more indicative of a June pattern with the synoptic set-up able to effortlessly fuel ample deep moisture into central and especially southern Indiana. Rain chances will drop from west to east late Wednesday night as the supporting surface low crosses the state. Total 24-hour rainfall potential for Wed-Wed night will be 1.00-2.50 inches along/south of the I-70 corridor, with less than 1.00 inch expected for most locations north of I-70. Temperatures will be above normal amid the S/SW flow and overall warm sector of the passing/approaching systems. Expect low 80s ahead of convection Wednesday...while lows Wednesday night amid decreasing chances of rain ranging from the upper 50s near Lafayette to the mid 60s south of the I-70 corridor. Thursday through Monday... The last five days of the long term will then trend to at least a couple northern stream, positively-tilted short waves cycling from the northern Plains into the Midwest. Not the greatest certainty with this pattern, with some guidance members originally hinting at the second wave plunging and inducing a strong baroclinic circulation near the Ohio Valley around the Sunday/Monday timeframe ...however, latest data now suggests amplification will be more modest, which should keep the pattern more progressive over the region thru the end of the long term. This should translate to near to slightly below temperatures amid west-northwesterly breezes. Thursday will be marked by robust to gusty breezes as the gradient from the combination of departing low pressure and the passage mid-level supporting vort. The 5-day period will include several chances for at least stray showers under the troughy flow...with more organized showers expected both Thursday and Saturday per corresponding short waves. Widespread and/or heavy rainfall could be possible early next week should the weekend wave plunge and phase, although currently low chances in this set-up coming to fruition. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term is 72/52.
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