The good news is that the Summer Solstice is on Thursday, June 20, 2024 at 4:50PM. That is the day with longest amount of sunlight this year. After that, the days start getting shorter again as we approach fall and then winter. #BOTS!
Several southern Indiana counties are under an "Air Quality Alert" so beware of that if traveling to the southern part of the state.
Here is what the NWS is saying about the weather in Indiana:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 124 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend begins today with highs in the mid 80s, highs near 90 for Thursday - Thunderstorms, a few strong or severe, are possible Thursday night - Hot and humid starting Sunday && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments needed. Expect quiet weather conditions today as surface high pressure remains in control. There is a low (10%) chance for an isolated light shower this morning over far NW portions of central Indiana over the next hour or two due to an approaching weak frontal boundary. This weak boundary will stall near NW Indiana which could allow for a few additional light diurnal showers to develop towards this evening. Confidence in precipitation is very low given weak forcing and subtle moisture. Will hold off on any mentionable POPs for later today, but slight POPs may need to be added in future updates. Increasing southwesterly flow combined with mostly sunny skies will warm temperatures into the 80s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Surface analysis shows high pressure directly overhead. Winds have gone largely calm, and large-scale subsidence along with a mainly dry column has been eroding cloud cover through the evening. Additionally, the system responsible for the cloud cover is pulling away to our northeast. As such, continued clearing and excellent radiational cooling conditions should prevail through sunrise. Despite this, temps are running about 10 degrees above where they were last night since the core of colder air aloft is now to our east. With high pressure largely in control, we can expect quiet weather for the most part. Only a few high clouds may pass by at times and perhaps some diurnal cumulus may develop by the afternoon. Otherwise, surface winds become southwesterly as the high shifts eastward. A tightening surface pressure gradient looks to develop just to our northwest as a system impinges on the departing high. This may allow for some higher speeds and occasional gusts from about Lafayette northwestward. Winds still remain on the lighter side, regardless...with highest gusts hitting 20mph at most. Warmer winds from the southwest lead to even higher temperatures today with most places climbing into the middle 80s. High-res guidance is hinting at a weak convergent zone developing across northern Indiana late this afternoon. Additionally, they show a plume of higher dew points advecting northeastward along this boundary. Some members show dew points climbing into the lower 60s across northwestern portions of the area by evening (dew points in the 50s elsewhere). Model soundings show a dry column above 850mb, but enough near-surface moisture for limited instability along this boundary. Interestingly enough, multiple HREF members hint at isolated showers developing from around Lafayette northward around 22z. Probability of occurrence seems low (10-15 percent), due to limited forcing and instability...and if any shower develops is should be fairly shallow and short-lived. By tonight, expect any showers that manage to form to diminish quickly after sunset. Diminishing surface winds should retain a southwesterly component...but may go light and variable south and east of I-70. High clouds may pass through at times as debris cirrus from upstream convection drifts southeastward. Warmer lows more typical of June are expected with values dropping into the low 60s, with a few areas of upper 50s across our far southeast. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Thursday Through Friday night. The northwest flow regime will continue aloft through Friday night which will keep it mostly dry. However, models hint at the potential for an MCS to move across central Indiana Thursday night. Even if one doesn`t develop and move through, a cold front will be diving southeast across the area Thursday night and the combo of lift associated with that along with models supporting moderate instability with CAPEs to over 1500 J/kg supports 30+ chance PoPs Thursday night. If an MCS would develop, Corfidi vectors favor a southeast moving complex. Weak surface pressure gradient suggests low level inflow into the system will be minimal, however 50 knot deep shear and veering with height to go with the moderate instability supports the Spc Day2 Marginal and Slight Risks over northern and western parts of central Indiana with damaging winds and possibly large hail the main threats.It is too early to diagnose mesoscale details, including cold pool/shear balance. So, confidence is low on timing and coverage of convection. As the surface ridge aligns SW-NE along and south of the Ohio River, temperatures will gradually warm to near 90 degrees by Thursday. Meanwhile, potential cold front passage looks like it will result in Friday being not quite as warm with timing considerations key. Confidence is trending on the not as warm side. Saturday Through Wednesday. The main concern later in the weekend and next week will be the heat and humidity as an upper ridge builds overhead and then shifts east. At the same time, southerly low level flow will return to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The return flow around the high is likely to result in dew points increasing to the upper 60s and perhaps lower 70s by Monday and with little cloud cover and continued southerly inflow under the influence of the ridge, temperatures could easily reach the lower 90s if not Sunday then Monday. With the increased moisture and instability, can not rule out isolated mainly diurnal pop ups. Models and ensembles are having problems resolving northeastward moving upper waves around the back side of the ridge but there is enough there to at least suggest a few storms can not be ruled out next week. This time period will need to the be looked at for potential future headlines. For now, will broadbrush it in the HWO and keep a weather story graphic going.
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