Yep. All the data pointed to a nice storm developing between December 2-5 but it has now disappeared. At this point there are small chances for snow flurries or a clipper system on December 3rd but it won't be much to get excited about.
The next item of interest is a storm developing in New Mexico around the December 11th. It could give us some snow on December 13th.
If you haven't heard about this yet, you soon will. I don't even think Ryan Hall is talking about it yet. All the models (including the AI version) are hinting at a big storm system between December 2 and December 5. When all the models are in agreement on it, it's likely going to happen. The only differences in the models are exact placement, timing and the type of precipitation.
Normally in November we have one more severe weather outbreak before we finally transition into winter weather and I think this will happen during that 11/2 to 11/5 timeframe. The most trusted model, the EURO has a severe tornado outbreak followed by heavy snow.
Keep in mind that this in the long range, or 15 days away so the forecast will change many times before then but just be alert for that timeframe. Expect to see something like this:
#BOTS!
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 214 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-211915- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone- Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam- Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby- Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess- Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- 214 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana. .DAY ONE...Through Tonight. Snow likely towards daybreak Thursday with amounts up to a half inch. Westerly wind gusts to 30 mph through the afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Snow returns Thursday afternoon with 1 to 2 inches of snow expected. Locally higher amounts possible, but much of the accumulations will be on grassy and elevated surfaces. Wind gusts to 40 MPH are possible Thursday as well. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any accumulating snow measurements tonight into Thursday night.
A taste of winter will arrive by November 21 and it might hang around for a week. Get prepared for a jolt to your system! We should see the first snowflakes of the 2024-25 season next Thursday or Friday. My confidence is pretty high on this since all the teleconnections are lined up for it to happen and the computer models are agreeing on it and the National Weather Service is already mentioning it. (See below)
Also, the long range models are showing some really cold air for mid December but long range models can't be trusted that far out. I'm so excited. Bring On The Snow!
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 159 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Stratus or stratocumulus will likely persist much of the day Friday due to residual moisture and mixing beneath strong subsidence inversion. This should clear Friday night as modest drying continues, with MSLP high center being placed favorably for light winds. Fog may form on the western periphery of residual stratus layer early Saturday morning, though the signal in the models isn`t currently significant and its spatial extent may be limited. As the mean ridge axis moves east, a continued warming will occur this weekend with +5-10 degree 2-m temperature anomalies expected. The normal high is 53 and the normal low is 36. There is some ensemble spread by Sunday-Monday, though not significant. There is a dipole among the GEFS-weighted cluster and the EPS-weighted cluster with regards to characteristics of a low amplitude shortwave trough within the northern stream. The more amplified GEFS camp suggests better rain chances into central Indiana, forced by a narrow midlevel baroclinic zone paired with modified ribbon of returning deep moisture. The ECMWF-camp is less amplified and mostly confined the southern extent of precipitation to northern Indiana. Next week, we appear to enter a period that is more synoptically complicated, with potential blocking due to strong positive height anomalies at higher latitudes. This is a low predictability scenario for medium-range guidance. There is a signal for a deep closed low to evolve over/near our region, but placement and timing has been inconsistent within recent model cycles. Clustering technique shows a variety of ridge/trough placements. Regardless, most models do indicate an eastward progress so the forecast challenge is more with specific timing of warm pre-frontal rain band, followed by how soon we get under the deep closed low with colder air and lingering precipitation, and how long that persists. Day 8-14: Late in the week the aforementioned deep closed low may progress enough eastward for cold air to align with embedded shortwave perturbations for some snow, though likely not substantial amounts. Thereafter, ensemble spread is large and the only thing we can say with any degree of confidence is that anomalous ridging and warm conditions look less likely the weekend after next into the week of the 25th, after what has been an extended period of anomalous warmth.