A large storm seems to be brewing between December 2 and December 5, 2024.

If you haven't heard about this yet, you soon will. I don't even think Ryan Hall is talking about it yet. All the models (including the AI version) are hinting at a big storm system between December 2 and December 5. When all the models are in agreement on it, it's likely going to happen. The only differences in the models are exact placement, timing and the type of precipitation.

Normally in November we have one more severe weather outbreak before we finally transition into winter weather and I think this will happen during that 11/2 to 11/5 timeframe. The most trusted model, the EURO has a severe tornado outbreak followed by heavy snow. 

Keep in mind that this in the long range, or 15 days away so the forecast will change many times before then but just be alert for that timeframe. Expect to see something like this:

LOOK at the 975mb low pressure below! That is really low!

Also notice that classic comma shape. The center of the storm is in Canada and it is bringing freezing temperatures to Mississippi. Check out the temperatures for 12/3/24.

What will become of the National Weather Service?

Already in political crosshairs, fates of NOAA and FEMA hang in the election balance

The Election, NOAA, And Project 2025

 

Our first snow of the 2024-25 season starts tomorrow.

#BOTS!

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
214 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

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214 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Snow likely towards daybreak Thursday with amounts up to a half inch.
Westerly wind gusts to 30 mph through the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Snow returns Thursday afternoon with 1 to 2 inches of snow expected.
Locally higher amounts possible, but much of the accumulations will
be on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Wind gusts to 40 MPH are possible Thursday as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any accumulating snow measurements
tonight into Thursday night.

A piece of the polar vortex will visit Indiana next week.

A taste of winter will arrive by November 21 and it might hang around for a week. Get prepared for a jolt to your system! We should see the first snowflakes of the 2024-25 season next Thursday or Friday. My confidence is pretty high on this since all the teleconnections are lined up for it to happen and the computer models are agreeing on it and the National Weather Service is already mentioning it. (See below) 

Also, the long range models are showing some really cold air for mid December but long range models can't be trusted that far out. I'm so excited. Bring On The Snow!

From the National Weather Service:

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 159 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Stratus or stratocumulus will likely persist much of the day Friday
due to residual moisture and mixing beneath strong subsidence
inversion. This should clear Friday night as modest drying
continues, with MSLP high center being placed favorably for light
winds. Fog may form on the western periphery of residual stratus
layer early Saturday morning, though the signal in the models isn`t
currently significant and its spatial extent may be limited.

As the mean ridge axis moves east, a continued warming will occur
this weekend with +5-10 degree 2-m temperature anomalies expected.
The normal high is 53 and the normal low is 36.

There is some ensemble spread by Sunday-Monday, though not
significant. There is a dipole among the GEFS-weighted cluster and
the EPS-weighted cluster with regards to characteristics of a low
amplitude shortwave trough within the northern stream. The more
amplified GEFS camp suggests better rain chances into central
Indiana, forced by a narrow midlevel baroclinic zone paired with
modified ribbon of returning deep moisture. The ECMWF-camp is less
amplified and mostly confined the southern extent of precipitation
to northern Indiana.

Next week, we appear to enter a period that is more synoptically
complicated, with potential blocking due to strong positive height
anomalies at higher latitudes. This is a low predictability scenario
for medium-range guidance. There is a signal for a deep closed low
to evolve over/near our region, but placement and timing has been
inconsistent within recent model cycles. Clustering technique shows
a variety of ridge/trough placements. Regardless, most models do
indicate an eastward progress so the forecast challenge is more with
specific timing of warm pre-frontal rain band, followed by how soon
we get under the deep closed low with colder air and lingering
precipitation, and how long that persists.

Day 8-14: Late in the week the aforementioned deep closed low may
progress enough eastward for cold air to align with embedded
shortwave perturbations for some snow, though likely not substantial
amounts. Thereafter, ensemble spread is large and the only thing we
can say with any degree of confidence is that anomalous ridging and
warm conditions look less likely the weekend after next into the
week of the 25th, after what has been an extended period of
anomalous warmth.