A taste of winter will arrive by November 21 and it might hang around for a week. Get prepared for a jolt to your system! We should see the first snowflakes of the 2024-25 season next Thursday or Friday. My confidence is pretty high on this since all the teleconnections are lined up for it to happen and the computer models are agreeing on it and the National Weather Service is already mentioning it. (See below)
Also, the long range models are showing some really cold air for mid December but long range models can't be trusted that far out. I'm so excited. Bring On The Snow!
From the National Weather Service:
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 159 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Stratus or stratocumulus will likely persist much of the day Friday due to residual moisture and mixing beneath strong subsidence inversion. This should clear Friday night as modest drying continues, with MSLP high center being placed favorably for light winds. Fog may form on the western periphery of residual stratus layer early Saturday morning, though the signal in the models isn`t currently significant and its spatial extent may be limited. As the mean ridge axis moves east, a continued warming will occur this weekend with +5-10 degree 2-m temperature anomalies expected. The normal high is 53 and the normal low is 36. There is some ensemble spread by Sunday-Monday, though not significant. There is a dipole among the GEFS-weighted cluster and the EPS-weighted cluster with regards to characteristics of a low amplitude shortwave trough within the northern stream. The more amplified GEFS camp suggests better rain chances into central Indiana, forced by a narrow midlevel baroclinic zone paired with modified ribbon of returning deep moisture. The ECMWF-camp is less amplified and mostly confined the southern extent of precipitation to northern Indiana. Next week, we appear to enter a period that is more synoptically complicated, with potential blocking due to strong positive height anomalies at higher latitudes. This is a low predictability scenario for medium-range guidance. There is a signal for a deep closed low to evolve over/near our region, but placement and timing has been inconsistent within recent model cycles. Clustering technique shows a variety of ridge/trough placements. Regardless, most models do indicate an eastward progress so the forecast challenge is more with specific timing of warm pre-frontal rain band, followed by how soon we get under the deep closed low with colder air and lingering precipitation, and how long that persists. Day 8-14: Late in the week the aforementioned deep closed low may progress enough eastward for cold air to align with embedded shortwave perturbations for some snow, though likely not substantial amounts. Thereafter, ensemble spread is large and the only thing we can say with any degree of confidence is that anomalous ridging and warm conditions look less likely the weekend after next into the week of the 25th, after what has been an extended period of anomalous warmth.