My interpretation of the polar vortex this year.

There's a constant low pressure over the Hudson Bay that has been there for a long time. There's a blocking pattern off the coast of the southeastern US. There's also blocking pattern off the coast of the northwestern US. Add in sudden stratospheric warming in the north pole and this is what we get:


The rule of thumb is: If it's cold in Alaska, it's gonna be warm in Indiana. If it's warn in Alaska, it's gonna be cold in Indiana.


An excellent blog post by Amy Butler and Laura Ciastro on this season's polar vortex.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming is a complex topic. If you are interested in the details, you can read the full blog post here:

Otherwise, here are the most important info-graphics from the post:







Wild temperatures wings coming.

Tuesday night's low will be -2 degrees.

Friday's high temperature will be 43 degrees with rain. Boooo!

Next Tuesday's high will be 10 degrees and the low will be -7 degrees.

Watch out for a big snowstorm during the last week of January, specifically between January 26-29.

The data for February is showing mixed results. Some of the data says warm and some of the data says cold.






I see it on the radar so where is the snow?

The cold dense dry air is evaporating the snow before it hits the ground. Had we not had -2 degrees Thursday morning, it might be snowing now. Nonetheless, that is why you se a full radar screen and no snow outside your window. So all those 4-6 inch totals you saw yesterday are not going to happen. Expect 2-3 inches. 





Southern states will be closed until further notice.

 


Sometimes the best cure for ice is more snow.

Compacted snow + snowmelt = Ice

The snow should stick around for a while because it will be cold for a long time. One problem that we have is the very gradual and slow snowmelt that occurs when the sun is out and then later on, that water refreezes overnight and turns into black ice. If temperatures are going to stay cold then more snow is better because it creates traction on top of the ice and it keeps people from falling and crashing like saw a Kroger this evening. Look at this sheet of ice in the parking lot:





1-5-25 Snowstorm pictures from Bloomington Indiana.

These pictures are from the Sunday (1/5) to Monday (1/6) snowstorm event in Bloomington Indiana.






















 

Snow and Ice for Mexico on January 23 & 24th.

I don't buy it but this is what the GFS model is spitting out.











Snow for Indiana this weekend plus other important updates.

It's going to be very cold tonight. The National Weather Service is forecasting a low temperature of 0 degrees tonight. I think it will get lower than that because of clearing skies. I think the low temperature will be -2 degrees. 

The storm system that is bringing big snow and ice to the south will also spread light snow into Indiana due to the merging of two storm systems over eastern Kentucky. 

We seem to be in a pattern where we will see a storm system every weekend from now through January 25th. 

The polar vortex will relax for three days before it reloads again. We should be above freezing from January 15 -17. After that, it gets cold again. 

After that, the polar vortex eases again during the first week of February. There are hints that it will try and make a comeback by Valentines Day.

I don't like it but the National Weather Service has removed the "Windchill Advisory" and replaced it with a "Cold Weather Advisory". I think phrase "cold weather advisory" is fairly relative. I think the phrase "windchill advisory" automatically informs people to bundle up and wear extra layers and not to stay outside too long. That's just me though. In addition to that, the NWS has changed a lot of their definitions. If you would like to see all of them, you see them  at:
https://www.weather.gov/lwx/warningsdefined

Here is an example of the new "Cold Weather Advisory"

Cold Weather Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1158 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-025-030>037-040>043-049-090515-
/O.NEW.KLMK.CW.Y.0001.250109T0400Z-250109T1500Z/
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Meade-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-
Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Scott KY-Harrison KY-Woodford-Fayette-
Bourbon-Nicholas-Clark KY-
Including the cities of Brandenburg, Corydon, Paris, Salem,
Cynthiana, Lexington, Georgetown, Louisville, New Castle,
Scottsburg, Tell City, Madison, Jasper, Hawesville, Winchester,
Paoli, La Grange, Frankfort, New Albany, Jeffersonville, English,
Bedford, Versailles, Lewisport, Milton, Shelbyville, and Carlisle
1158 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 /1058 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025/

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills or air temperatures as low as 5 below
  zero expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north
  central, and northwest Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to 10 AM EST /9 AM
  CST/ Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin
  is exposed to these temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible. Make sure outdoor animals
have a warm, dry shelter, food, and unfrozen water.


Seven inches of snow in Atlanta Georgia? Big snow in the south for Friday, January 10, 2025

I bet this is exciting for people in the south. Winter Storm Watches are posted for Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. Atlanta is forecast to get anywhere from 1 to 7 inches of snow. That will be an absolute paralysis of the city. If you have family members in the south, contact them and tell them to prepare now.



Ignore social media posts about the winter storm.

Tune in to the Weather Channel and check out what the National Weather Service is saying. Ignore the socials!




Another snowstorm is possible for next weekend!

Saturday January 11, 2025


The AI forecast (see below) suggests that there will be a pattern flip after this and we will get warmer after January 15th and the colder air shifts to our west while Indiana remains on the border between warm air to the east and cold air to the west. We shall see. But doesn't that high of 52 degrees look nice on January 15th?


 


 

Useful links to get you through the snowstorm.

Here are some links that might be helpful:

Delays and Closings from Indiana Public Media (WFIU & WTIU)
https://indianapublicmedia.org/closings/

INDOT basic information
https://www.in.gov/indot/travel-conditions/travel-information/

INDOT traffic camera for Bloomington
https://511in.org/@-86.61691,39.19992,10?show=normalCameras#camera/3888/1546797961

How busy is the traffic on the roads right now?https://www.google.com/maps/@39.150101,-86.5120916,13z/data=!5m1!1e1?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTIxMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

IDHS Travel Advisory Map
https://www.in.gov/dhs/travel-advisory-map/

You can also call 511 to get information about road conditions.

If are lonely and feeling depressed and, being shut-in makes you feel even more depressed, call 988 for help. Someone is always available to talk you. 

Do not believe stories about a 20+ inch snowfall in southern Indiana.

The farther south you go, the more ice there is mixing in with the snow and this drastically cuts down on the snow totals. Just beware of seeing graphics like these:


The National Weather Service office in Indianapolis is calling for 5 to 8 inches of snow in our area with an average of about 6 inches. Sure, some places will over-achieve on those totals but not up to 20 inches. Here is the latest from the NWS:







Monroe County Indiana is under a Winter Storm Warning.

We all know this was to be expected. Here is what the National Weather Service is saying:

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 5 and 8 inches and ice accumulations around
  a tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 30 to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southeast, and
  southwest Indiana.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. The strong winds and weight of
  snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic
  power outages. Significant ice accumulation on power lines and
  tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages.
  Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel
  could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains,
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing.
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help
you survive in case you become stranded.

Bloomington Indiana to be on the dividing line between ice and snow.

Based on the data I've seen and what the National Weather Service office is posting, it looks like Bloomington Indiana will be right on the dividing line. More snow is likely north of Bloomington and more ice mixing with snow is likely south of Bloomington.












Winter Storm Warnings are going up to our west.

Kansas, Missouri and Illinois have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.  I think Indiana will be upgraded to Winter Storm Warning tonight, Friday night and for sure by the time you wake up Saturday morning.

Now is the time to stay away from social media.

The National Weather Service is calling for 6 inches of snow. Between now and Sunday morning, you're going to see this number grow on the socials from 6 to 12 to 24 and maybe even a 30 thrown in. Don't fall for it. Trust the professionals at the National Weather Service. 

Winter Storm Watch just posted.

This is early! That means the NWS is confident in their forecast. Here are the details:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy winter precipitation expected. High probability snow
  amounts of 6 inches or more, with potential for significant
  accumulations of sleet and freezing rain across southern portions
  of central Indiana.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central, south
  central, southeast, southwest, and west central Indiana.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. The strong winds and weight of
  snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic
  power outages.