NWS Special Wx statement on upcoming weekend.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
241 PM EST Mon Jan 14 2019

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-150745-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-
Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-
Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-
Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport,
West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon,
Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson,
Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport, Rockville, Greencastle,
Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield,
New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Clay City, Spencer,
Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville,
Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington, Nashville,
Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals,
Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
241 PM EST Mon Jan 14 2019

...Another Winter Storm may Impact Central Indiana this Weekend...

A Winter storm may push out of the southern plains on Friday
night and push across Kentucky on Saturday. This may result in
another significant accumulating snow for Central Indiana on
Saturday and Saturday Night.

It remains too soon to determine specific snowfall amounts.
However...current forecast models suggest accumulating snow...that
could result in snow covered roads and surfaces and difficult
travel conditions.

There is still uncertainty in the forecast. The timing and the
path of the storm could change in later forecasts. People should
stay aware of the forecast and be prepared for the possibility of
more snow on Saturday.

$$

Reports.

The official snow total for Bloomiongton Indiana was four inches. This is exactly what I measured yesterday. The NWS (National Weather Service) has a snowfall analysis website where you can search for snow totals in your area.
https://www.weather.gov/crh/snowfall

The Community Collaborative Rain Hail & Snow Network (all volunteer reporting)
https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/StateDailyPrecipReports.aspx?state=IN

There is snow showing up on radar in Illinois.


There's already talk of another snowstorm for next weekend. I can't believe people are already putting up snow maps this early.


LOL! Snow storm next week!

There are already posts and snow graphics going up about a snowstorm for next week and we are not even through this one yet.


9:00am Saturday Morning in Bloomington Indiana - Four inches of snow.

Not too bad. 4 inches of snow by my measurements. Nonetheless a Winter Storm Warning is still in effect until 7:00AM Sunday, January 13.









Winter Storm Warning now in effect for parts of central and southern Indiana.

#BOTS!

Congratulations #BOTS fans! (Bring OThe Snow!)

I want to send a word of caution about the various snow total maps out there and especially on twitter. Personally, I would go with what the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis says as the official forecast for this storm.

The totals have risen from 4 inches to 6 inches.

The current road and surface temperatures are 37.5 degrees but that will fall as the day turns into evening.

The good news is that the snow will not start until midnight tonight so most people will be off the roads by then and this gives the salt trucks time to clean the roads.

Temperatures will return to the lower 40's next weekend (Friday, Saturday & Sunday) before the next arctic blast and the potential for another snowstorm between January 22-24th.

That's it for now. Please be safe tomorrow and check the INDOT website for travel advisories.

I'm sitting at Lucky's Market on the south side of town. People are shopping and stocking up on the necessities like wine and cheese.

Goold ol' B-town.


Winter Storm Watch issued form Monroe County Indiana

And surrounding counties too. So this is significant. The NWS has made the call so we can be certain that a sticking snow is coming. They are saying 4-7 inches. If you don't have snow scrapers and shovels, you might want to get one.


Yes, there is a strange gap in the three counties west of  the state line from Vincennes to Terre Haute.
_____

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
336 PM EST Thu Jan 10 2019

INZ043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072-111100-
/O.NEW.KIND.WS.A.0001.190112T0500Z-190113T1200Z/
Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Vigo-Clay-Owen-
Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-
Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Clinton, Newport, Rockville, Greencastle,
Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield,
Terre Haute, Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville,
Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville,
Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus,
Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford,
Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
336 PM EST Thu Jan 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a Winter
Storm Watch, which is in effect from late Friday night through
Sunday morning.

* TIMING...Late Friday night through early Sunday morning.

* MAIN IMPACT...Potential exists for 4 to 7 inches of snow
  accumulation, with locally higher amounts possible. This will
  create hazardous travel conditions.

* OTHER IMPACTS...Potential for low visibilities in heavy snow
  bands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Beware of snow total info graphics and pictures.

Here we go again. I'm already seeing amounts for this weekend totalling well over a foot of snow. This is irrational. Here is what the NWS is saying:

This is barely "Winter Storm Watch" criteria based on the definition.

Snow looks very likely for this weekend in Bloomington Indiana.

Good old Indiana. 58 degrees yesterday and snow this weekend. #BOTS!


And the wild swing continues. After the snow this weekend, it's back to above normal temperatures. Here's the NWS full discussion:

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Clouds will linger tonight into Thursday across the northeast
forecast area, which will be impacted by flow off of Lake Michigan.
However, it looks like any snow showers will remain north of the
area.

Otherwise high pressure will build in and keep things dry with clear
to partly cloudy skies. Clouds will increase Friday ahead of an
approaching upper trough and low pressure system.

Good forcing and decent moisture will move in Friday night
with the system, and this should produce some snow for the area.
Amounts are still uncertain, as the initialization`s QPF amounts are
higher than WPC`s numbers. This is likely due to the NAM and ECMWF
being more aggressive with QPF amounts. Not sure that much moisture
will make it up here, but don`t have enough confidence to change the
initialization at this time.

MOS`s low temperatures for tonight look too cold many areas, with
some clouds and wind around. Went closer to the blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday Night/...

Issued at 338 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

The focus of the extended period remains on the Saturday snow
chances. Models are in decent agreement with a low pressure
system tracking across Missouri on Saturday, spreading a plume of
moisture ahead of it through the Tennessee Valley and into central
Indiana. The bulk of the moisture will affect the southern
portions of central Indiana with amounts in the 3 to 4 inch range,
but confidence is also low in those amounts across that area due
to rain mixing in on Saturday. Further north, amounts will be more
in the 1 to 3 inch range where precipitation will generally stay
in the form of snow, but where moisture will not be as abundant.

As the system moves eastward, snow showers will end from northwest
to southeast on Saturday night and Sunday. After that, high
pressure will result in dry conditions through the remainder of
the forecast period with temperatures slowly climbing back above
normal.

Is winter over?

No. Winter ends on March 20 so there's about two and half months left to go. So far the temperatures have been nice and above average there are signs that the pattern might change during the last week of January.

There's also talk of a snowstorm this coming Friday into Saturday but it's too early to tell. The placement and timing of storm still have to worked out. If this is a nocturnal event then we could see some snow. If it is a daytime event we'll likely see rain. The trend this year has been for us to be on the warm side of the storm which means rain. The other trend has been suppression of storms to our south as we get closer to the event.

Here are some things to keep in mind as we head through January:

The old southeast ridge.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming took place in the end of December. This can send polar air southwards but it might go towards Europe rather than the US.

The National Weather Service see a drier pattern in the extended period. Sorry BOTS fans.

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019

Below normal temperatures will persist through Thursday with
decent northwest flow around a ridge of Canadian high pressure.
The normal/above normal temperatures will return by the weekend
though as the wind shifts ahead of an upper low on Friday. This
low will also be responsible for light rain and snow showers at
times from Friday night through Saturday. Little to no snow
accumulation is expected though. After that, a dry pattern will
resume again through the remainder of the extended period. Latest
blended initialization handled the pattern well, so no changes
were needed.

Which means be very suspicious of snow prediction graphics that you see on the internet.