90 degrees again tomorrow.
Why? Because it's Indiana!
A taste of summer next week!
.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed May 4 2022 Quite the pattern change expected to take place in the long term as cool and wet conditions this weekend transition to hot, humid, summer-like weather next week. Friday - Saturday Nearly stacked area of low pressure in the Central Plains slowly moves eastward along an E-W oriented boundary stretched across the Ohio Valley. GFS and EC ensembles still show some spread regarding the exact track as it moves through Indiana. Larger spread with the ECE members with the low potentially tracking anywhere from the Ohio River to the Michigan border; while the GFS ensembles are clustered in Southern Indiana and right along the Ohio River. NBM currently splits the difference with the surface low tracking right along the I-70 corridor. While the overall track will have influence on where the axis of heaviest rain sets up, surface temperatures, and thunder potential; confidence is high in below normal temperatures and widespread rainfall for Central Indiana on Friday. Current thinking is that rain and elevated thunderstorms along a warm front will be ongoing Friday morning. As the surface low moves directly over the region, expect light rain and potentially thunderstorms to continue through the day. While thunder is in the forecast across all of Central Indiana, best chance for thunder and stronger storms remains across South Central Indiana closer to the warm sector where slightly higher instability exists. Still will have to monitor the track of the low as a further north track could bring the potential for strong to severe storms further northward into Central Indiana. Given the slow nature of this system, there is a marginal to slight risk of flooding across much of the state as 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall on already saturated grounds. The low slowly departs to the east on Saturday while high pressure settles over the region. With abundant low level moisture in the PBL and high pressure moving in, expect low stratus and possible drizzle to linger through the day. Expect ceilings to rise during the day; however with subsidence aloft trapping moisture near the surface and little to no forcing, clouds will be stubborn to clear out. As for temperatures, expect a 5 to 10+ degree gradient from north to south across the area. Confidence is lower with the temperature forecast as a track farther north (south) will lead to warmer (cooler) surface temperatures. For now, keeping low to mid 60s across north Central Indiana and low to mid 70s across South Central Indiana. Sunday - Next Week Beginning Sunday and persisting through next week, a major pattern change takes place across much of the eastern half of the CONUS as ridging builds in and a surface high parks itself across the Northeast. Many forecast signals are pointing towards a summer-like pattern developing and persisting increasing forecast confidence in the long term. Cluster analysis reveals strong agreement among models in a highly amplified ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast early to mid week. NAEFS and ENS are indicating 30+ year climatological maximums in 850 mb temperatures and high moisture content/humidity levels. Flow turns southerly on Sunday and increases through early next week advecting in a much warmer and humid airmass. Temperatures aloft dramatically increase to 16 to 20C at 850mb by midweek. With a well mixed atmosphere, expect very steep low level lapse rates mixing down the anomalously warm air aloft to the surface. Highs in the 80s expected Monday through at least midweek. Would not be surprised for a few sites to reach their first 90 degree day of the year sometime next week as EC ESAT tables show low to mid level temperatures 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. With all this in mind, went above NBM guidance for temperatures next week. On top of the summer- like heat, oppressive mid-summer like humidity values will surge northward as moist tropical air flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Dew points could potentially reach the lower 70s at times next week leading to heat indices well into the 90s. By mid to late next week, guidance indicates a broad upper low retrograding westward from the Atlantic to the Southeast CONUS. With the potential for lower pressure moving into a very unstable, warm, and humid airmass, will have to watch the potential for thunderstorms once again by the end of next week. Confidence is low regarding any details past midweek as long term guidance tends to struggle with the break down of blocking patterns.
Strong storm possible this evening.
We will likely see thunderstorms this evening starting around 5:00pm and lasting through 2:00am. The severe component ramps up around 9:00pm. The main threat appears to be strong winds which could cause some power outages. The radar is already lighting up with storms in Illinois.
Yes, it snows in April in Indiana
This is the second year in a row though. It's 9am so if you are just waking up, you missed it. There was a brief period of light snow showers between 5am and 7am. Last year it snowed on April 20, 2021. And just for the record, the latest date of measurable snowfall in Indianapolis history is May 9, 1923.
So here's what happened last year.
Very cold air for the second half of April interacted with a low pressure system to bring accumulating snow to central Indiana. Record snowfall for April 20 was recorded at Indianapolis, and record cold temperatures followed the snow for April 21. Snow began falling in central Indiana during the afternoon hours and continued into the evening. The snow was briefly heavy at times, reducing visibility for travelers. Warm ground temperatures melted some of the snow as it fell, and warm road temperatures helped keep most roads clear. Below is a map of snowfall, followed by a listing of snowfall reports received.
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1051 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021 ...SNOWFALL SUMMARY OF THE APRIL 20-21, 2021 RECORD EVENT... GREATEST REPORTS for each COUNTY, where 3.0 or greater... Location County Snowfall Source Kokomo 3 WSW Howard 5.0 in COOP Strawtown 2.2 E Hamilton 4.5 in CoCoRaHS Modoc Randolph 4.5 in CoCoRaHS Crawfordsville 6 SE Montgomery 4.4 in COOP Muncie 2 W Delaware 4.0 in Public Tipton 1.3 NW Tipton 3.8 in CoCoRaHS Thorntown 1.3 ENE Boone 3.7 in CoCoRaHS Country Club Hghts 2N Madison 3.7 in Trained spotter New Castle 3 SW Henry 3.5 in COOP Castleton 2 S Marion 3.5 in COOP Shelbyville 2 SSW Shelby 3.3 in Public Brownsburg 5.1 NNE Hendricks 3.1 in CoCoRaHS Burlington Carroll 3.0 in CoCoRaHS Frankfort Clinton 3.0 in Public Greensburg 6.0 SW Decatur 3.0 in CoCoRaHS Greenfield Hancock 3.0 in COOP Rushville Rush 3.0 in COOP TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS, by county... Location in Central Indiana Amount Time/Date Provider ...Bartholomew County... Taylorsville 0.8 SSW 2.5 in 0430 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Columbus 3.2 ENE 1.6 in 0830 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Flat Rock 1.2 SSW 1.0 in 0745 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Columbus 0.9 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP ...Boone County... Thorntown 1.3 ENE 3.7 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Lebanon 6 W 3.5 in 0530 AM 04/21 COOP Pike 1.5 ESE 3.2 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Whitestown 3.1 E 3.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Thorntown 3.4 SW 1.8 in 0600 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Brown County... Beanblossom 1.4 NE 2.6 in 0600 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Needmore 1.7 SSW 1.6 in 1000 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Stone Head 3.2 ENE 1.2 in 0630 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Carroll County... Burlington 3.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Flora 2.1 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP ...Clay County... Brazil 2.7 WNW 2.5 in 0851 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Clay City 1.5 in 0900 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Bowling Green 1 W 1.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP Howesville 0.8 in 0547 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Clinton County... Frankfort 3.0 in 0902 PM 04/20 Public Kilmore 1.0 ENE 2.9 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Daviess County... Plainville 1.3 S 0.7 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Washington 1.5 NW 0.6 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Washington 3.3 SE T 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Decatur County... Greensburg 6.0 SW 3.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Delaware County... Muncie 2 W 4.0 in 0730 AM 04/21 Public Muncie 3.6 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Yorktown 1.1 NNW 3.4 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Macedonia 3.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Muncie 3.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP ...Fountain County... Covington 1.5 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Greene County... Owensburg 1.0 N 1.3 in 0630 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Elliston-Bloomfield 0.9 in 0800 AM 04/21 COOP ...Hamilton County... Strawtown 2.2 E 4.5 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Westfield 1.4 ESE 4.0 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Noblesville 4.0 SE 3.7 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Fishers 3 NE 3.5 in 1136 PM 04/20 Trained spotter Fishers 1.0 WNW 3.2 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Carmel 1.4 NNE 3.2 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Fishers 3 NW 3.0 in 1035 PM 04/20 Amateur radio McCordsville 2.5 NE 3.1 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Fortville 1.5 NW 2.8 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Carmel 1.5 W 2.0 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Carmel 3 E 2.0 in 0800 AM 04/21 COOP ...Hancock County... Greenfield 3.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP Wilkinson 4.1 W 2.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS New Palestine 1.2 NW 1.8 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Hendricks County... Brownsburg 5.1 NNE 3.1 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Clayton 2.8 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Avon 1.4 WNW 2.6 in 0600 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Plainfile 1.1 W 1.9 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Henry County... New Castle 3 SW 3.5 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP New Castle 3.2 W 3.4 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Lewisville 1.8 ENE 1.6 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Howard County... Kokomo 3 WSW 5.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP Kokomo 4.0 WNW 2.6 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Kokomo 4.4 E 2.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Johnson County... Franklin 1 W 2.4 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP Greenwood 3.8 W 2.0 in 0658 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Franklin 2.0 NW 1.2 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Amity 1.8 W 1.0 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Franklin WWTPlant 0.8 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP Greenwood 4.9 SW 0.5 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Knox County... Vincennes 4 E 1.1 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP ...Lawrence County... Oolitic Purdue Exp Farm 1.6 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP Buddha 1.5 in 0730 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Harrodsburg 2.9 SSW 1.3 in 0830 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Madison County... Country Club Heights 2 N 3.7 in 1120 PM 04/20 Trained spotter Anderson 2.0 S 3.6 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Ingalls 3.0 WNW 3.5 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Marion County... Castleton 2 S 3.5 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP McCordsville 1.3 W 2.6 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Clermont 0.9 N 2.5 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Southport 0.9 SE 2.5 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Indianapolis Intl AP 1 SE 2.0 in 1035 PM 04/20 NWS WFO Indianapolis 5.8 NNE 2.0 in 0930 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Ravenswood 2.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Meridian Hills 1.7 in 0615 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Indianapolis 3.2 S 1.5 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Meridian-Kessler 1.1 in 0900 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Martin County... Shoals 4.0 E 2.2 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Shoals 8 S 0.5 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP ...Monroe County... Ellettsville 1.8 SSW 2.5 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Ellettsville 2.7 NE 2.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Ellettsville 1.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Montgomery County... Crawfordsville 6 SE 4.4 in 0600 AM 04/21 COOP ...Morgan County... Mooresville 1.8 NE 2.1 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Brooklyn 2.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 NWS Employee Martinsville 2.3 SE 1.4 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Paragon 3.2 ENE T 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Owen County... Freeman 2.4 WSW 1.8 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Spencer 1.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP Spencer 2.8 ENE 1.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Parke County... Bloomingdale 2.0 in 1135 AM 04/21 Trained spotter Rockville 3.6 ENE 1.2 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Putnam County... Cloverdale 3.5 W 2.6 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Greencastle 3.6 ESE 1.5 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Randolph County... Modoc 4.5 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Lynn 4.0 in 1017 AM 04/21 Public Farmland 5 NNW 3.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP Parker City 3.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Winchester 2.2 WSW 3.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Rush County... Rushville 3.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP Homer 2.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Shelby County... Shelbyville 2 SSW 3.3 in 0705 AM 04/21 Public Morristown 2 SE 2.0 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP Shelbyville 2.5 N 1.8 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Fairland 0.9 SSW 1.5 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Sullivan County... Graysville 5 WNW 0.9 in 0800 AM 04/21 COOP Farmersburg TV-2 0.7 in 1158 PM 04/20 COOP Hymera 0.2 in 0800 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Tippecanoe County... West Lafayette 1.0 NNW 2.9 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Lafayette 2.2 NE 2.7 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Lafayette 2.2 S 2.5 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS West Lafayette 1.4 in 0915 PM 04/20 Media West Lafayette 3 WNW 1.1 in 0730 PM 04/20 Public West Lafayette 6 NW 1.0 in 0800 AM 04/21 COOP ...Tipton County... Tipton 1.3 NW 3.8 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS Tipton 5 SW 3.1 in 0530 AM 04/21 COOP Windfall 2.2 WNW 2.5 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Vermillion County... Perrysville 4 WNW 2.5 in 0610 AM 04/21 COOP ...Vigo County... Riley 0.9 in 0700 AM 04/21 CoCoRaHS ...Warren... Pence 1 SW 1.3 in 0700 AM 04/21 COOP Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
The severe weather threat has been downgraded a little bit.
The line of storms will move through much faster than expected. The main line of storms should hit Bloomington between 7 and 8pm. Let's say 7:30pm. The far southern counties in Indiana should still be on the look out for tornadoes.
My thoughts on tomorrow.
If you live downstate particularly in the southwestern corner of Indiana, you should really pay attention to the weather over the next 48 hours. The wind energy in that area is extremely high. Here is my drawing of the highlighted area of concern:
Tornadoes possible tomorrow.
The entire state of Indiana has the possibility of seeing severe weather tomorrow so pay close attention and keep your weather radios turned on. Here are the details from the National Weather Service:
Short Term...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Apr 12 2022
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
* A line of strong to severe storms will move through at some point
later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
* Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the primary severe threats,
along with heavy rain.
* Some uncertainty remains in timing and extent of severe potential.
Today...
Early this morning, a front had stalled out to the south of central
Indiana. A dewpoint gradient was across the area, with dewpoints
around 40 north to the mid 50s far south. Most of the area was dry.
The front will return north today as a warm front, with southwest
flow developing aloft ahead of an upper wave. With the upper wave
still well upstream during the day, there won`t be much upper
support for the warm front. There will be some isentropic lift
though with a slow increase in southwest flow aloft during the day.
Thus do not expect much if any convection to develop today. If it
does, it should be in the southern forecast area. Will have some low
PoPs there today, but with low confidence. Enough instability may
build in the far southwestern forecast area for a conditional threat
of a strong thunderstorm, but again confidence is quite low.
Am expecting a good amount of clouds around with moist low level air
moving in behind the warm front.
Tonight...
Any convection from this afternoon should end by early evening. A
lull will then occur for the remainder of the evening. Overnight, an
upper wave will approach from the southwest. The low level jet will
increase to 50kt or more by the overnight. Plentiful moisture will
be around with precipitable water values over an inch. With this
moisture and forcing, will go likely or higher PoPs across the
southwest forecast area by 12Z. Much of the instability will be
aloft.
Do not expect much of a severe threat overnight, but a strong storm
with gusty winds is possible in the southwest.
Wednesday (before the main line of storms)...
Convection from the initial upper wave will still be moving northeast
through the area Wednesday morning. Not expecting severe weather
with this given limited instability.
Additional convection will develop during the day in the warm and
moist atmosphere (even surface dewpoints may get into the 60s), with
some lift ahead of an approaching large upper trough. Expect rain at
times during the day. Will go high PoPs all areas given this and the
morning rain. Depending on how much instability can build between
rounds of rain, a strong storm is possible.
Wednesday into Wednesday night (the main line of storms)...
The upper trough will become negatively tilted by Wednesday evening.
A strong cold front will approach the area from the west later
Wednesday afternoon and move through before 06Z Thursday. Very
strong shear will be across the area with 0-3km bulk shear of 50kt
possible. Instability will be modest, but the high shear should
overcome any limits from instability. Good forcing is expected ahead
of the approaching cold front. Thus, a line of strong and severe
thunderstorms is expected to move through central Indiana.
There remains some uncertainty on the timing of the main line of
convection with some model runs bringing the line in a few hours
before 00Z and others around 00Z. Also, even though the shear will
help overcome instability, there is some concern that the previous
rain during the day could result in some of the convection becoming
more elevated across parts of the area. However, given the
potential, will continue to play up the severe threat all areas, and
will have a broad time of afternoon into evening to account for that
uncertainty.
Heavy rain will also be a threat Wednesday into Wednesday night with
potential for repeated rounds of convection and high moisture
content of the atmosphere.
What was that? What just happened in Bloomington?
No, it wasn't another explosion or meteorite. Between 4:34pm and 4:37pm today we had a mini graupel storm in Bloomington. There's only one mention of it on twitter so far.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1512166380380073994
#BOTS for tomorrow!