.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 Spring has sprung...or maybe not. Mother Nature continues to play her cruel joke on central Indiana with another winter storm arriving for the weekend. While tonight will be dry (only a slight chance for any precip in the southwesternmost counties), lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Friday will bring highs in the mid 40s to around 50 with chances for rain arriving in the southwest in the afternoon. By Friday night, though, the rug is pulled out from us once again as winter returns on a low pressure system moving out of the plains. Strong frontogenesis along with upper forcing and some conditional instability (showing up as negative EPV) are showing up in model time heights in some spots at times from 6z through 18z Saturday. This indicates the potential for some heavy snow. A low level jet will be bring some moisture up into the area to continue to feed the storm. There appears to be some potential in the forecast sounding profiles for a zone of sleet/freezing rain somewhere in the area dividing the rain area from the snow, and this will cut into total amounts wherever it sets up. Doesn`t look like a lot in the way of ice accumulation from this however, and right now looking at less than a tenth of an inch in a narrow band. North of that band, with the aforementioned strong forcing and some instability could see a snow band with amounts approaching 6 to 8 inches. The cutoff between snow and rain looks to be very sharp north to south with this system, and could see counties with nothing on one end and several inches on the other. With models coming into better agreement with this system and the potential for heavy snow, have decided to issue winter storm watch at this time for areas approximately along and north of Interstate 74. Any change in the track of this potent little system will change the location of heaviest amounts, and a greater intrusion of warm air would cut total snowfall but possibly bring more icing potential, so these will be things to watch in upcoming forecasts. Potential for snow and mixed precipitation will continue through the day on Saturday and even into Saturday night. Think the worst should be over by 0z Sunday if not before, so let the watch end then. Across southwestern Indiana Saturday, enough instability is moving in to add a slight chance for thunderstorms to the forecast to go along with the rain there, and this is another indication of the strength of this system. The system should move out of the area late Saturday night and allow dry conditions to return.
Another snow storm this week?
It looks like central Indiana will be getting more snow this weekend but the track of the storm is not clear at this time. It looks like it will be north of Bloomington and Monroe County. Here's the latest thoughts from the NWS: (they added a sense of humor to the discussion!)
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