Updates.

We received 4.7 inches of snow with out last snow storm. Unbelievable but true in that today's high will be 45 and then we might see some light freezing rain and snow after 4pm. Tomorrow night's low temperature will be 4 degrees. The cold polar air is going to be around for the next two weeks. There are signs that warmer air will work its way in by February 6th. Here's the latest analysis from the NWS:

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Issued at 153 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

Forecast soundings tonight through Friday night show a familiar
winter pattern...saturation within the lower levels with a steep
inversion in place aloft. Aloft the models keep a classic winter
pattern in place with broad troughing and cyclonic flow in place
aloft allowing cold air to spill out of Canada through at least
Friday night. Given the flow aloft and the lack of any anti-
cyclonic flow...we will expect the strato-cu to hang around for a
few days. Models suggest little in the way of upper support or
organized systems passing through the Great lakes or Indiana
through Friday Night. Although a flurry cannot be ruled
out...mainly dry...cloudy and cold weather will be expected. Look
for Friday morning to be the coldest as 850mb temps look to fall
to near -20c and 1000-500mb thicknesses fall to very low values in
around 505 dam.

Thus will trend toward a mostly cloudy forecast this period and
trend temperatures at or below the forecast builder blends given
the strong cold air advection and expected lack of any kind of
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 255 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

Models continue to show a fairly cold and somewhat active long
term period, with multiple disturbances in the overall cyclonic
flow aloft. One in particular early next week could provide an
opportunity for accumulating snowfall, but model inconsistencies
and run to run differences limit confidence in the solutions. One
point of relative consistency is the trend toward turning very
cold yet again near the very end of the forecast period.

Blended initialization handled things reasonably well and required
only minor adjustment.

2 comments:

  1. Think there will be a travel advisory due to ice tonite, Wednesday the 23rd? My Mom says Fort Wayne is closing down!

    ReplyDelete
  2. I doubt it. Most of the snow has melted and the rain has left the area.

    ReplyDelete